MLB MON 04122010 - Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[40seven]

Before we start this week lets recap last

ML 16-10-0
RL 1-2-0
5 inn RL 0-1-0
Totals 9-6-1
Team Totals 1-1-0
ML Parlay 0-1-0

Grand Total 27-20-1

42% losers, my goal is 32-38% losers

up 5.06 Units

Not bad for week 1.

Now how about this week.

 

[40seven]

What is Value?

What is Value?

In baseball it is the weight of how often do you think you will get the outcome you believe adjusted for the odds provided.

The Nats today at +180. If you believe they have a 50/50 chance at winning you have value in the wager.

Never bet a gamer just for the odds if you do not believe a team has a greater than 50/50 chance at winning you should never bet them no matter the odds.

That is why you are looking for the one or two plays a day that can make some money.

From now until May 6 I will just be fooling around and logging info so i can start really narrow it down.

Again BOLTA and welcome to the discussion.

I like to post this each week to remind of my goal last week I got into a lot of picking which lead to a lot of the losses

 

[JBrilman]

Keep it up 40!

 

[40seven]

JB what do you know

JB what do you know

I played off the record KCR on the RL 1/2 a unit.


But I am playing the Cub's at -167, why I believe they should win BUT why would i lay that much chalk...., but I did.


47

 

[40seven]

Another Crazy Play

Another Crazy Play

Phil's on the RL

I see this as a from 4-1 to 6-2 type game.

The Nat's pitcher is weak and until he proves he can pitch I am going to Fade him plus the Phil's home opener they want a big win

 

[40seven]

at 4

at 4

At 4

I really would love to play the Astro's but cannot. I will pick them but...

But I will play the Twin's at home plus money....It just makes sense.

 

[40seven]

1-0 so far

1-0 so far

I played off the record KCR on the RL:00hour 1/2 a unit.


But I am playing the Cub's at -167:00hour , why I believe they should win BUT why would i lay that much chalk...., but I did.


47

Looking good so far, but it is early

 

[40seven]

winner

winner

Phil's on the RL :00hour

I see this as a from 4-1 to 6-2 type game.

The Nat's pitcher is weak and until he proves he can pitch I am going to Fade him plus the Phil's home opener they want a big win

:00hour

 

[grindstone]

LOOKING NICE 40 SEVEN congrats

:toast:

 

[40seven]

Next

Next

Like SDP as a lean


Playing Over in Seattle

 

[40seven]

Thanks Buddy

Thanks Buddy

LOOKING NICE 40 SEVEN congrats

:toast:

Nice for your attention

 

[40seven]

Night Cap

Night Cap

OVER in the Reds and Fish Game

and

OVER in the Pirates and Giants

Blessings to all