COLORADO +119:
Colorado?s playing their home opener in this one and they appear to already have their offense powered up this season. Known for their poor history of hitting away from home, the Rockies managed to bang out 35 hits and score 21 runs in their first 3 road games this season. Their team batting average over that 3 game span was .312, so I think you can expect the hot hitting to continue with the Rockies coming home to the highest scoring ballpark in the Majors.
Arizona on the other hand has just managed 5 total runs in their first 3 games and were shutout in 2 of those. As a team, the Diamondbacks are hitting a very poor .172 overall this season.
Colorado?s starter, Shawn Chacon, would love to continue to keep those Arizona bats quiet and I feel he?s got a little extra motivation in doing that. Reason I say that is because Chacon was sent down to Triple A last August and was a little ticked when he didn?t even get a late season call-up.
Chacon seems to be out to prove himself once again. So far he?s done that, as he was very dominant in Spring games this year, going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA. In those games, he allowed just 16 hits in 22 innings and did not allow a home run all spring. His control was also very good, having a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.5 to 1.
Today is a Day game and another thing I noticed with Chacon is that his career ERA in day games is 1.72 runs lower than his career night ERA. This is a big positive although I do feel that it is a bit inflated because it does include several day starts on the road.
Chacon has been no worse than the average when compared to other pitchers numbers at Coors and actually would be much better with the exception of one stat and that being the enormous number of home runs he?s given up at Coors over his career. The humidor was brought in last season and with the weather being cooler this early in the season, this should only help with that situation. Also, like I mentioned above, Chacon didn?t allow any homers the entire spring. Below is a comparison of 3 stats, comparing Chacon vs the average pitching perfomance at Coors for last season.
OVERALL AVERAGE FOR PITCHERS AT COORS FIELD LAST SEASON:
5.73 ERA
1.58 whip
.298 batting average allowed
OVERALL AVERAGE FOR CHACON AT COORS:
5.77 ERA
1.51 whip
.230 batting average allowed
As you can see, he has normal numbers in comparison and has a huge edge in average allowed.
Now let?s take a look at Arizona?s starter Byung-Hyun Kim. It?s a bit tricky trying to cap how he?ll perform today because he?s been a reliever his entire career except for one start very early in his career and I will add the fact that he?s been a very, very good relief pitcher.
I do feel it?s a bit of a negative situation for Kim today. Reason being, it will feel different for Kim being his 1st start in over 2 years plus not only will this start be on the road, but it will also be at the worst pitcher?s ballpark in the Majors. You can also expect Coors to be sold out with a bunch of hostile fans as well. Kim has also not had a good history pitching at Coors. Let?s take a look at all the possible negative for him today:
Kim career at home: 11-3, 144 IP, 7 Home runs, 2.99 ERA
Kim career on the road: 9-14, 135 IP, 19 Home Runs, 3.45 ERA
You can see he struggles a bit more on the road than home and when you consider that Bank One Ballpark is also one of the higher scoring stadiums, the numbers could actually have a little more meaning. If you?re looking at just last years numbers on the road, Kim?s ERA was over a full run higher on the road and every Home run he gave up last year was given up on the road.
Kim has made 24 career appearances vs Colorado and has a very respectable 3.95 ERA vs them, but when you go a little deeper and look at just his career numbers at Coors Field, you?ll see he is just 1-2 in 11 appearances with a whopping 7.62 ERA! At Coors, he?s pitched a total of 13 innings and gave up 16 hits including 7 home runs! Are you kidding me? That?s right, he?s given up as many home runs at Coors in 13 innings pitched as he has given up his entire career at home with spans 144 innings pitched.
Now on a side note, Kim does have very good stuff and it?s always possible he brings his A game and performs well today. If that is the case and he?s really pitching well, rest assured he won?t be facing the Rockies the whole game. Kim has a habit of throwing a lot of pitches and rarely retires batters quickly. It?s not uncommon for him to have a 25 or even a 30 pitch count innings even when he?s pitching well. Being a reliever in the past plus this high pitch count tendency, we should see him going no more than 4 or 5 innings in my opinion.
Bottom line, we have two offenses going in different directions, opening day with a packed house for Colorado, extra motivation and drive from Chacon after his demotion last season, a new experience for Kim with his starting role.....his first start also coming on the road in the worst pitching ballpark. I think I?ll take my chances and try this one for a normal ?1 betting unit? Why only 1 unit? Remember it?s still very early in the baseball season and anything can happen in baseball even if it?s not early. Remember to always use good money management.
Good Luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
