MLB Playoff Bracket
- Thread starter Junior44
- Start date
im picking cinci over the Dodgers......not many teams hotter than the Reds right now!
Not sure how deep they go, but def have to go with the Guardians in the first round
- Sep 1, 2012
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Cincy does not have the pitching to get past LA. Not sure anyone will…
Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw.
Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw.
I think Abbott, and maybe greene can keep us around for a 3 game series. That being said i dont think we beat LA....but it would be awesome
I’ll just watch this series, no play. Still waiting for pitchers in the other 3 games
No, all wildcard are best 2 of 3,all games at same site
jeez..........after looking at tomorrow's lines and the pitching matchups, these games are gonna be tough to cap
i'd be surprised if the dodgers win that series. their bullpen is a mess and they have a lot of recent history of losing in the first round with stronger teams than this.
that said, watch kike hernandez and tommy edman carry them to the WS again.
that said, watch kike hernandez and tommy edman carry them to the WS again.
lmao.......well i just put a bet down for the Reds to win the series at +200.....so we shall see
If Reds can take game #1 Reds +173 (Greene@Snell) I say they take series, 80%+. Reds +252 for series so what do I do with those thoughts if I want the Reds? Would want to split up with series price, I figure.
+173 implies 36.6%
+252 implies 28.4%
If I figure that Reds win game #1 in 40% of our multiversai (minimum needed, really, for positive value), then I could imagine they'd take series in
40% x 80% of our multiversai, or
32% of our worlds.
32% chance for something implying 28.4% probability implies value, but how much?
Pretty slim, even assuming numbers are remotely legit. People fucking around with return on investment shit--between and among various risks--might be able to talk some sense into me. I'm still thinking in terms of the measurable value on a +200 payout on a coin toss, and other related comparisons.
More seriously, I'm either on candid camera or that price on the former Indians was created by Tarik Skubal's mother. I'm seeing series price on Indians at +102 (-117 Tigers; Pinnacle), which appears surreal but, I confess, much of reality does to me lately.
Game #1 price on the former Indians somewhat explains it, as I'm seeing -159 on Skubal and friends, compared to +143 on afterthought Gavin Williams & his crew. I wouldn't consider that rather appealing +102 fmr-Indians series price without going Hoppy on that game #1 price at +143. Opposite of my strategy for that Reds series, if targetted. Going against Snell on the road would scare me much more than taking a chance against the apparently beloved (by Ma Skubal, at least) Tarik. fmr-Indians can hit lefties and their record vs L not a concern (21-24 vs L, vs 67-50 vs R) as I look for vs L deviations by way of team OPS, currently seeing Clev an MLB 4th vs R .745, compared to an MLB 7th vs L at .751.
Caveat Emptor (buyer beware), I don't know shit about MLB compared to my flow 10 years ago, and I wasn't exactly pissing off the books back then. Just my penny and a half's worth. I think that used to be a thing.
Shit, I have too many tabs open. Even my current faves Buck&Aik ain't saving MNFs.
p.s. I prefer fmr-Injuns BP all day and half of the night.
===+===
My hypothetical 32% chance for Reds to win series does not take into account them winning the series IF they lose the opener. Even with my goofy numbers, that probability only increases to less that 35%. Even less relevant, an uncomfortable Bench led me to a transaction with Rose. Wherever he is (serving), may he be remembered more fondly than the HOF committee remembers Charlie Hustle.
Schmidt and Carlton should remember as fondly.
Been a long day.
I (still) prefer fmr-Injuns to Reds. Who doesn't.
+173 implies 36.6%
+252 implies 28.4%
If I figure that Reds win game #1 in 40% of our multiversai (minimum needed, really, for positive value), then I could imagine they'd take series in
40% x 80% of our multiversai, or
32% of our worlds.
32% chance for something implying 28.4% probability implies value, but how much?
Pretty slim, even assuming numbers are remotely legit. People fucking around with return on investment shit--between and among various risks--might be able to talk some sense into me. I'm still thinking in terms of the measurable value on a +200 payout on a coin toss, and other related comparisons.
More seriously, I'm either on candid camera or that price on the former Indians was created by Tarik Skubal's mother. I'm seeing series price on Indians at +102 (-117 Tigers; Pinnacle), which appears surreal but, I confess, much of reality does to me lately.
Game #1 price on the former Indians somewhat explains it, as I'm seeing -159 on Skubal and friends, compared to +143 on afterthought Gavin Williams & his crew. I wouldn't consider that rather appealing +102 fmr-Indians series price without going Hoppy on that game #1 price at +143. Opposite of my strategy for that Reds series, if targetted. Going against Snell on the road would scare me much more than taking a chance against the apparently beloved (by Ma Skubal, at least) Tarik. fmr-Indians can hit lefties and their record vs L not a concern (21-24 vs L, vs 67-50 vs R) as I look for vs L deviations by way of team OPS, currently seeing Clev an MLB 4th vs R .745, compared to an MLB 7th vs L at .751.
Caveat Emptor (buyer beware), I don't know shit about MLB compared to my flow 10 years ago, and I wasn't exactly pissing off the books back then. Just my penny and a half's worth. I think that used to be a thing.
Shit, I have too many tabs open. Even my current faves Buck&Aik ain't saving MNFs.
p.s. I prefer fmr-Injuns BP all day and half of the night.
===+===
My hypothetical 32% chance for Reds to win series does not take into account them winning the series IF they lose the opener. Even with my goofy numbers, that probability only increases to less that 35%. Even less relevant, an uncomfortable Bench led me to a transaction with Rose. Wherever he is (serving), may he be remembered more fondly than the HOF committee remembers Charlie Hustle.
Schmidt and Carlton should remember as fondly.
Been a long day.
I (still) prefer fmr-Injuns to Reds. Who doesn't.
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Cincy is in way over their heads against the Dodgers. I'd love to see them punch out LA, but it ain't gonna happen.
