Mlb Plays Friday August 2

[ndnfan]

Wed recap: 2-1 (+1.1 Units)

SEASON: 209-170 (+27.2 UNITS)
Sides: 149-125 (+14.05 Units)
Totals: 60-45 (+13.15 Units)
__________________________________________

Playing 4 games today:

PHILADELPHIA -130 (2 UNITS)
TAMPA BAY +125 (1 UNIT)
UNDER 8 OAKLAND -120 (1 UNIT)
CLEVELAND +1.5 RUNLINE +130 (1 UNIT)

Good luck in all your plays today!

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

PHILADELPHIA ?130:

Really like the Phillies in the game to handle the Dodgers. There?s a lot of ?Home-Road? and ?lefty-righty? meaning in this game. Let?s take a look:

First of all we have Vincente Padilla starting for the Phils today. Gotta feel a little pressure?s been taken off him with his last outing which was a win over the Braves. That was his first win in over a month and thought he was pressing a bit even though his outings in this winless drought really haven?t been that bad.

Of Padilla?s last 7 starts, 5 of them have been on the road which leads me to some of this Home-Road stuff. Both Padilla and Ashby are like night and day when it comes to home-away. Let?s take a look at Padilla:

Padilla at home this season is 5-2 with a 2.17 ERA
Padilla on the road this season has an ERA of 4..34 which you can see is over 2 runs higher than his home ERA.

Padilla is also pitching much better in Night games this year. So far his record at night is 8-4 with a very impressive ERA of 2.91

Padilla will also have will have plenty of advantages situational wise vs these Dodgers. Padilla is a pitcher that has had some trouble with left-handed hitters over his career as they are hitting an even .300 off him (.283 this season). However, this Dodgers lineup will most likely only sport 3 left-handed bats today which is a huge plus for Padilla in this one as he is extremely tough on righties. Over his career, right-handed batters are only hitting .238 off him and it?s even better this season at .214

Padilla this season overall is only allowing a very respectable .249 average to hitters which is good, but He gets even more tough to hit against with runners on:

Padilla with runners on base?.allowing just a .235 average to hitters
Padilla with runners in scoring pos?..allowing a .234 average
Padilla with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?.allowing just a .200 average

Another big key situational matchup in this game is the fact that Padilla does not allow many home runs. As a matter of fact he has only allowed 10 all season in 145.1 innings and over his entire career, he has only allowed a total of 15 homeruns in 247.1 innings! What does this mean you ask? Well it means Padilla gets a lot of ground ball outs and induces a lot of double play balls which we all know will really kill any potential rallies. Check out this matchup:

Padilla has induced a whopping 20 double plays this season and this does not fare well for the LA Dodgers who lead the Majors this season in grounding into double plays this season at a whopping 103!!

Padilla just as he gets a lot of double plays, he also holds runners on well. There have been only 7 stolen base attempts with him on the mound this year.


Ashby is starting for the Dodgers today and is much the same as Padilla with this Home-away and lefty-righty stuff which might really hurt him today. Let?s take a look:

Ashby has been a below average pitcher on the road throughout his entire career and the same is holding true this season:

Ashby career on the road is just 46-54 with a 4.54 ERA
Ashby career ERA at home is 3.65 which you can see is almost a full run lower than his road ERA.

Ashby this season on the Road is just 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA which again is much worse than his home ERA of 3.72

Ashby has also struggled in night games this year:

Ashby in night games is just 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA which again is over a full run higher than his daytime ERA of 3.18

Ashby over his career has always allowed a lot higher average to left-handed hitters and this season is no different. This season Ashby is allowing lefty batters to hit 41 points higher than righties which leads me up to the fact that Philadelphia is a team that really has a lefty-dominated lineup and will more than likely have 5 left-handed bats in the lineup today!

Although there are only 3 Philly players on the current roster that have any at-bats vs Ashby since 1998, I can?t help to notice the career mark that he has vs the Phillies:

Ashby in 10 career starts vs Philly is just 1-7 with a 5.14 ERA which could always be in the back of a pitchers mind?especially when it?s that bad. I don?t know whether a lot of those starts came at Philly or what but trust me a pitcher knows when a team has dominated him such as Philly has in the past. If he starts getting into a little jam, he may really get rattled

Ashby has been a pitcher that has always shown signs of wearing down as a season progresses. This showes with his career ERA of 4.53 after the All-Star break vs his ERA of 3.75 prior to the break.

Can?t help but notice the current forms of the bullpens as well in this one. Over the last 10 games LA?s bullpen has an ERAof 7.03 while the Philly pen is sporting a very good ERA of late at 1.72

With all the home-away meanings with these 2 pitchers, I also can?t help but notice a trend that really stands out:

The home team has won the last 11 meetings between these two teams

Philly also seems to be playing very well of late winning 7 of their last 9 games while the Dodgers have lost 15 of their last 21 games.

Bottom line, I think it?s worth a shot at 2 units on this one.

Good luck :thumb:

-ndnfan

 

[Hailmary]

Wow, GREAT write up!!! Thanks for all your work Pete. I really appreciate it as does everyone on this site. You have convinced me that Philly is definately a play today.
GL & PEACE, HAIL

 

[TJBELL]

I agree with Hail! thanks for all your hard work and more importantly...GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks Hail and TJBell......gonna be out most today, but will add my reasoning on the other plays later on if I get a chance.

GL to both of you today and NICE CALL on COLORADO yesterday Tom!

 

[Spock]

good luck Pete ..

Tom good call on Colorado yesterday ..

Will be rootin for all ur plays.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

good luck today Pete

 

[wormdog]

Nice write up ndnf

SOLD!

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

First of all thanks for all your work. You've made a lot of people some serious cash this year. Most of all though you have really taught me a lot about how to break a game down. Something that hopefully will put more money in my pockets in the future.

I was curious to know if you start to become more selective down the stretch or possibly hang it up early. It seems to me that September is just very difficult to handicap and was curious about your past success.

 

[ndnfan]

Trampled??My advise would not really that you have to be more selective on the games, but rather more selective when handicapping the games vs the Vegas line. There?s a lot of times early in the baseball season when you can get away with playing ?public picks? that hold there value. You see a lot of cappers that come off successful football or basketball seasons then get crushed early in baseball. I think that comes from partly the ?contrarian? views they?ve used in the previous sports to be successful.

As the season gets later in the year, basically it doesn?t get harder to cap the games, you just have to start looking at some key angles that did not hold any meaning earlier in the season. For example, there?s pitchers that may have been awesome early in the season, but really start to wear down later in the year. Of course Vegas is late to catch up a lot of this stuff, but then again, Vegas has to keep the lines higher sometimes as the overall Public still has their strong memories and the Public is also late to catch up, thus you see teams at high prices. you?ll see the ?public? teams or pitchers really become inflated at times.

Motivation changes for teams as well. Teams that are out of the race, will get rid of key players or call up young players from the minors and a lot of times you?ll see the teams that were really weak early in the season, start stringing a few wins together at nice prices as the teams playing them, don?t quite take them serious enough plus the young players try to take advantage of their playing time.

Of course, this is just a couple examples, but what I?m saying is basically you have to use certain stuff and apply a little more weight to factors that did not really apply as much early in the season?..Just way to much to get into.

As far as my success?.I?ve had good success late in the season. Still trying to figure out my bad run in July. I had the same trend last year with having a bad July.

Went back through my records, and seen I lost 14 Units back in the middle of May this season(over about a 2 week period) So pretty much have had 2 bad runs this season. Usually have 2 or 3 of those a year?.It?s just this last bad run got magnified a bit because of the huge run I had for over a month straight starting the beginning of June.

Anyways, hope this helps some Trampled and Good luck to you the rest of the season!

-ndnfan

 

[TJBELL]

NICE CALL ON PHILLY!!!! (WHEW!!!!!) A WIN IS A WIN!

GREAT CALL BRO!!!!!!!!!!!




























































OH........ ALMOST FORGOT.............















CHA CHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Spock]

great call on Philly Pete ..

i could not play the game but as soon as I saw the 2 units on it .. knew right away has to be a good play.

Hope my Minny comes thru ..

Cheers !!!
Spock