Boston -140:
Really love Boston here. Almost everything is setting up perfect as far as the situational and recent performances go:
First of all, gonna throw out an key angle in this one that pertains to Kyle Lohse....and that is that the guy seems to always pitch well against mostly righty dominated lineups and really struggles if the lineup is dominated by lefty hitters. Check out his numbers:
Lohse has given up a whopping .337 Average to left-handed hitters over the course of his career (.329 average this season) 
Lohse vs righty hitters only allows a .224 average (.228 this season)
Of course that is a difference of over a 100 points on the average which is amazing....the guy just can't get left-handed hitters out!
Lohse will be facing a Boston team that is loaded with the lefty hitters or switch hitters that will be batting left-handed vs him today. Check out the possible lefty bats that will face Lohse today:
Jason Varitek
Carlos Baerga
Tony Clark
Brian Dauback
Johnny Damon
Cliff Floyd
Trot Nixon
There will almost guarateed be 5 lefty bats in the lineup today with a possibility of maybe 6
Also throw in the fact that Boston hits righties very well, Lohse could be in MAJOR trouble today. Boston is hitting .279 vs righties for the season and over the last 10 games, they are hitting .285 vs them.
Lohse is also on the road in which his career ERA is at 5.37 which is over a half run higher than his Home ERA, however this season he's been a little better on the road for whatever reasons.
Fossum is getting the start for Boston today. Fossum's a lefty who has now made 2 starts and a very long relief appearance in his last 3 outings and has been superb only allowing 6 total earned runs in 19 innings. In his 2 starts, he only allowed 3 total earned runs against two pretty good hitting teams in Texas and Anaheim....plus both those starts were on the road.
I expect Fossum to pitch well again today. He's going against a Minnesota team that really seems to struggle vs left-handed pitching.
Minnesota on the season is hitting just .246 overall vs lefties and over the last 10 games, Minny is hitting just .130 vs lefties
Also throw in the fact Minnesota has been struggling of late....losing 4 in a row including getting swept by Baltimore, you gotta wonder if this team is starting to press a bit. Minny is a team that is only 2 games over .500 on the road this season and also had to travel, while Boston did not. True it's not that far, but still the advantage goes to Boston .
The only real negative I see in this game is the bullpen, where Boston's been struggling a bit of late, but other than that I see this game as very one-sided. I think the line is a bargain to tell you the truth...still deciding whether to lay another unit on it and make it a 2 unit play. May add later...I like it that much.
Good luck :thumb:
