Colorado +145:
Colorado games can be tricky to cap at times, but I feel today they have a very good shot to win.
Jennings gets the start for the Rockies and if you take a look how this guy performs on the road away from Coors, it's pretty impressive. Career wise, he is one of the better pitchers on the road when compared to others....check out the career numbers on the road:
Jennings on the road for his career is 8-4 with a 3.45 ERA and has only allowed 84 hits in 99 innings. His WHIP is also impressive at 1.22 (this season, he is just 4-4, but has a very impressive WHIP of 1.21)...VERY GOOD FOR THE ROAD.
Is it just me or has Florida as a team pretty much just thrown in the towel and playing out the season with NO enthusiasm :shrug: Just seems like they wanna get the season over with. Over their last 6 games, they are averaging under 2 runs per game. Last 6 games:
2 runs scored
2 runs scored
1 run scored
4 runs scored
2 runs scored
0 runs scored
Throw in the fact that injuries are also playing a role...as Preston Wilson is playing hurt as one guy I know of. I can just see Jennings having an easy time with this Florida club.
I did notice a negative with Jennings and that is his situational pitching at times. Of course those numbers are inflated because they include the stats at Coors and then if you look at Florida, You'll see they are one of the worst clutch hitting teams out there. I know for a fact they were dead last in bases loaded RBI's and were also only batting only .179 as a team with the bases loaded through this past Saturday's game.....Definately think Jennings handles this team today.
Jennings has made one career start vs the Marlins which was at Coors this season and pitched very well:
7 IP, 6 hits, 2 runs, 9 strikeouts
AJ Burnett gets the start for Florida today and would not be surprised at all f he gives up some runs today. First of all, it does look like Colorado hits him pretty well. He?s made 2 career starts vs the Rockies and in his last start back on May 15th at Coors, he gave up 5 runs off 8 hits and 4 walks in 6.2 innings. His only other start came last season at Florida where he only allowed 1 run, however he did allow 8 hits and 4 walks in 6.1 innings?..pretty much just bad clutch hitting by the Rockies in that one.
Also can?t help but notice that Burnett allows lefties to hit much higher off him. For his career, he is allowing an average of 71 points higher to lefties vs righty hitters. This season is much the same allowing the lefty hitters to hit 57 points higher. If you take a look at the Rockies lineup, they probably will only have 3 or 4 left-handed bats in there, but those bats are also the key ones in the lineup:
Pierre?leadoff guy
Helton?.enough said
Walker?.enough said
Burnett has been pretty solid all season, but I did notice he got lit up by Houston last start for 7 runs (5 earned) and that prompted me to look at those innings pitched and I?m starting to wonder if this is a sign to come.
The 2 starts prior to that pounding he took from Houston, I noticed he threw a total of 260 pitches
UNREAL ?132 one game and 128 the next. Burnett may be feeling the effects this 2nd half and you might wanna keep your eye on him as well as a lot of other pitchers that tend to wear down in the 2nd half.
Burnett has had a lot of games the first half of the season with those high pitch counts, so I would not be surprised if he is a prime candidate for one of these types.
Checked last season?s numbers and noticed Burnett?s ERA after the All-Star break was a whopping 1.79 Runs higher than before the break. Just feel you?ll see the same trend with him this season as with a lot of other pitchers.
Also like the fact that Florida is returning home from West road trip, so a lot of times the team is a little more tired that first game home after returning, rather than the visitor coming in.
Basically, without the Ump info yet, this is a solid as it gets for a +145 DOG?..plenty of hidden keys that give value to this play?..Gonna try it as a normal 1 unit play.
Good luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
