Atlanta -140:
If you want value in a favorite, you better jump on this one in my opinion. At first glance, kinda thought I wouldn't touch this game, but the more I looked into it, I found a lot of what I found 'excusable' misleading performances which is what I like to look at in finding very under-valued games. This is one of them and I like it enough to drop 2 units on it.
You?re getting the low line for a number of reasons:
First off, the Braves lost 2 in a row to Montreal, but remember, they did take the 1st two games of the series?they just got derailed a bit by the Expos 2 top pitchers in Colon and Vazquez.
Secondly, the Cubbies have won 4 in a row, but they are still just 6-10 in their last 16 games and if you take a look at the last 3 games they played, they can all be considered excusable wins:
On Friday they played the long 16 inning extra inning affair in which Florida finally had to bring Pavano in who ended up losing it?enough said there! (WHO CAN?T HIT PAVANO!)
On Saturday, I think Fletcher said it best in his post on that day?when he said the Cubs had a big mental edge with all the situations going on that day.
On Sunday, they got to face Tejera who was only making his 2nd ever start on the road, in which after that game has now gotten rocked in both road starts. Plus you throw in the fact Tejera really stinks it up on the road, even in relief (6.75 Career Road ERA) there was no wonder the Cubbies won.
The third reason for the low line, is that Zambrano faced the Braves on July 6th and gave up zero runs in 5 innings.
That 3rd reasoning above I believe will really hurt Zambrano today. Not only is he facing the Braves just 9 days later in which the Braves hitters will know which way to approach him, but that last game where he pitched 5 shutout innings vs them is very misleading. In that game, he was given a 3 run lead right off the bat in the first inning and it grew to a 5 run lead in the 4th. With that situation, it is much easier to relax out there on the mound?Zambrano said it best ?When I got in the third inning with a five-run lead, I felt more comfortable? The problem with all of this is the fact that he still walked 6 batters and was in jams in 4 of the 5 innings he worked! It?s saying a lot when the veteran Julio Franco even said that he was not impressed with Zambrano at all.
Prior to that start vs Atlanta, Zambrano has made 2 previous starts in his career and lost both of them giving up 13 runs(9 earned runs) in just 8.2 innings while also walking 7.
They may soon have a picture of Zambrano in the dictionary under the word WILD! So far now in his career, he has made the 3 starts and has walked 13 in 13.2 innings and if you look at all of his appearances in the Big Leagues, he has walked 29 in 32.2 innings.
Also Zambrano seems to be worse at home. Don?t know if he?s thinking too much, trying to impress the home crowd or what, but so far he has made 13 career appearances at home and has an ERA of 8.80!!
Of course Zambrano is basically a reliever and I really don?t expect him to go more than around 5 innings. Even if he?s pitching well, his pitch count accelerates very quickly with his streaks of wildness. Expect to see the less than stellar Cubbie bullpen. We all know the problems with their pen which casts an ERA of close to 5.00 for the season.
Marquis is getting the start for the Braves today. His last start was vs the Cubs on July 4th, a game in which he only gave up 1 run in 6.1 innings. He did however walk 4 batters which normally is not a good sign, but in this case I think it is. The home umpire in that game was Ed Rapuano who sometimes can have a very tight strikezone which is making that last start even more impressive being able to still get the job done pitching with an Ump of that sort.
Marquis like most top pitchers, does not get fazed too much pitching on the road. Actually if you look at his career ERAs, his ERA on the road is 1.41 runs lower than his home ERA.
Marquis has had a couple of rocky starts this season, but if you go back the last 9 games he?s pitched you?ll see that he?s given up 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 9 starts?.VERY IMPRESSIVE!
The Atlanta bullpen continues to be very good with an ERA of under 2.50 for the season and it has also been very good over the last 10 games.
Braves are a very good road team at 27-17, while the Cubs are still under .500 at home with a 19-23 record.
Of course I don?t have the Umpire info, but really don?t think that will play much of a role in this one. When you get pitcher as wild as Zambrano, even if you have an Ump with a large strikezone, usually it doesn?t help them that much. Pitchers like Zambrano actually get an advantage a lot of times if the Ump has a tight zone, cause with the wicked stuff, they?re not relying on hitting the corners as much, while a pitcher like Marquis would probably benefit more with a large zone Ump, he has shown plenty of times that he can adjust to all Umps fairly well.
Bottom line, I think just looking at the outer shell in this one, the line looks about right, but if you dig a bit, I think Atlanta has a huge edge in this one?.think the line should be more like ?180 or ?190. Anyways , I?m gonna try to take full advantage and lay 2 units on this one.
Good Luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
