Mlb Plays Monday July 29

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 4-2 (+2.5 Units)

SEASON: 206-164 (+30.6 UNITS)
Sides: 146-121 (+15.2 Units)
Totals: 60-43 (+15.4 Units)
______________________________________

Playing 2 games today:

TAMPA BAY +115 (1 UNIT)
OVER 8.5 SEATTLE +100 (1 UNIT)

Good Luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[kickserv]

Good Sunday.............thanx!


and just a thought..........would going hard on Tampa +1.5 be a smart bet? Remember I'm not a big baseball better.......I found it at $1.67 (-149)...........was thinking about putting it on one of my tennis parlays as well as just betting $1000 straight up! I really value your opinion........and knowing that if Tampa loses by one run I'd still win (670 profit isn't too shabby!)

I look forward to your response.

Also.........are all Baseball runline bets official only after 9 innings or do you know of a place where runline bets count if a game is called in the 7th or 8th inning?


Thanks,


(and make sure ya check your e-mail............some good info there for ya!)

 

[ndnfan]

kick serve....

Runlines must go 9 innings (or 8.5 if hometeam is up) at every book I know of. If you're playing it on Tampa, You won't have to worry about it as they play in a dome.

As far as playing the Tampa runline instead of the moneyline, It's your choice...I'm opting for more value in the moneyline, but of course the runline is a safer bet in terms of having a better chance to hit it(I just don't like laying that much juice on certain teams)...but if you're going with it in a parlay you may want to opt for it. I just don't really see too much value in....but that's just my opinion.

Will get some reasoning up for these 2 plays a little later.

GL to you!

 

[ndnfan]

Tampa Bay +115:

Really like my chances with Tampa Bay in this one. Looks like a few things moving in opposite directions in this one.

Paul Wilson is going for the Devil Rays today and don't let his 2-7 record this season fool ya. The guy just doesn't get any run support. Actually if you go back his last 10 games, you'll see he hasn't allowed more than 4 earned runs in any of them!!

Wilson also got his only 2 wins this year vs none other than the Orioles. This season, he made 4 starts vs them and is 2-1 with a very good 3.00 ERA. I think it's a little more impressive considering he had to make consecutive starts vs the O's twice this year.

Wilson is also a pitcher that has faired much better over his career when he is pitching at home and also when he's pitching at night:

Wilson career ERA at Home is 3.74
Wilson's career ERA on the Road is 5.62

Wilson's career ERA at Night is 4.29
Wilson's career ERA during the Day is 5.57

The same is holding true this season for Wilson.

Like I said above, Wilson has been a victim of lack of run support from his team, which is one reason I think you're catching some value in this one. Tampa has really been starting to click offensively of late. If you throw out the 2 bad offensive outings over the last 10 games which happened to be against Pedro Martinez and El Duque, the other 8 games they are averaging a whopping 7.3 Runs per game

As for Baltimore, could they be starting to slip offensively a bit? Could be...they have scored 3 runs or less in 4 of their last 5 games.

Travis Driskill is getting the start for the Orioles today and it looks like he might be losing some confidence which is very key for a rookie. Driskell has lost his last 3 games, giving up 14 runs in 16.1 innings in those games. If you go back even further, he has given up 22 runs in his last 28.1 innings which is over his last 5 games.

Driskill may have an advantage early with the DRays not having seen him yet, but if he does get through the order with ease, look for him to possibly to get hit hard second time around. The average he allows really seems to sky rocket as he throws more pitches.

Driskill when pitch count is 46-60 pitches....allowing a .452 averag.
Driskill when pitch count is 61-75 pitches..allowing a .351 average.

The negative in this game I guess would be the bullpens, but I'm willing to take a chance on the DRays putting enough runs up in this one and I definately expect Wilson to put in a good outing.

Tampa has also beaten the O's 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Good luck :thumb:

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

OVER 8.5 SEATTLE +100:

This probably isn't a popular pick, especially with Seattle playing 6 straight Unders and I for one don't usually like going against streaks like this, but think there's enough to warrant the play here.

First of all I'm kinda suspecting something is wrong with Freddy Garcia....might not be a physical problem, but it looks like something is bothering him nonetheless. The guy just hasn't been right since pitching in the All-Star game.

Garcia has made 3 starts since the All-Star game and is 0-2 and has given up 16 earned runs off 26 hits and 8 walks in just 16.2 innings

The first 2 starts after the break, I originally had partially excused his performances due to the Home Umps in those 2 games (Hunter Wendlestedt and Bruce Froemming). Of course both of those Umps have fairly tight strikezones. However, in his next start which was also his last one, he got the luxury of having John Hirschbeck behind the plate and he really shocked me by walking 4 plus throwing 3 wild pitches All this while pitching at home even!! That's enough to convince me something aint quite right with him.

Garcia is also catching a Tiger team who has now won 5 of their last 6 (Could have easily been 6 in row) and has really been starting to click offensively. The Tigers over the last 10 games are hitting .310 vs righties.

Garcia is also a guy that allows batters to hit 37 points higher off him when he goes past the 6th inning. If we see some of the Seattle bullpen, that might also be a plus for the OVER...The Mariners bullpen has a 6.41 ERA over the last 10 games!

Now if you're saying that Detroit is looking like a play.....I beg to differ. OVER all the way:

Jose Lima is getting the start for the Tigers. Of course Lima won his last time out in that very short game, but this was his first win since April 16th and I don't see him stringing 2 together especially vs this team that has a history of putting the hurts to him.

Lima is now 2-4 on the season with a whopping ERA of 7.36 and even though he blames this on what he says were injuries that he never complained about early in the season....I DON'T BELIEVE HIM. If you know Lima, he likes to do a lot of talking and tries to say things that he thinks will give him more confidence....that's just him.

Lima on the Road over his career has an ERA of nearly a run higher than his home games and if you look at this season, his ERA on the Road is 14.34

Lima with runners in scoring positon this season is allowing a whopping .440 average

Lima has a career ERA of 8.10 vs Seattle

And if you wanna see some of the Seattle players averages vs him that go back through the 1998 season:

Boone .364
Cirillo .364
Edgar Martinez 1.000
McLemore .333
Olerud .500
Sierra .500
Ichiro .600

The Detroit bullpen is not fairing well either. Over the last 10 games, Detroit's bullpen has an ERA of 5.61 and if you look at the pen's ERA for the season on the Road....it's at 6.71 !!

Bottom line, it just looks like Seattle's Under streak gets broken in this one...worth a shot anyways.

Good luck :thumb:

-ndnfan

 

[gHost]

Good Luck. Thanks for your posts. Can you post your bets history for season?

gHost

 

[Eugene Michaels]

Good luck Pete!

I'm on the Seattle Over myself, and as an FYI, I got +105 at New Age Bets.

 

[Eugene Michaels]

Ghost,

If Pete doesn't have his history readily available, you can get the plays yourself by simply using the Search function above on all of ND's posts the last 4 months.


Good luck

 

[bohawk]

My consensus pk

My consensus pk

ND-man
Had posted Over Det/Sea as my "consensus" pk. Then saw you
liked it too. Feel better with you on same side. Lima 'Bean" got
The "Man" from Lima last week with those 7inn against KC.
Like to get even. GL

 

[ndnfan]

ghost.....like Eugene stated, that would be the best way to get my betting history. I have records here, but not on the computer where I can readily throw it up here.

Eugene and bohawk....let's nail that OVER. Glad to see ya both agree.

Bohawk....was actually in Lima last evening doing some visiting

GL

 

[nighthorse]

Glad you had a nice day yesterday. You dont need a vacation!!

Whenever I see Lima and a total under 9, I think $$$$. Last week's performance floored me. Let's see if he can do twice in a row.

 

[wigs]

i believe lima was even quoted as saying that the ump must have had a big date-- b/c his zone was so huge..something to that effect, anyway it is quite laughable that after one good start, lima is taking it all in, as if he's back-- lovely quotes
from mlb & det free press--
Jose Lima is to make his second start since rejoining the rotation last week when he faces the Mariners on Monday at SAFECO Field. And for the first time in a long while, he has given himself a tough act to follow, both in his pitching and his personality. His seven shutout innings against Kansas City last Wednesday were matched only by his insistence on signing autographs for 45 minutes after the game. His animated reactions to strikeouts returned.
"It's a great feeling to go back out there, go perform," he said Sunday. "I'm in a groove now. These past couple days have been great. Great bullpen, arm's feeling well, lots of movement.

"It's great. I was in the spotlight before and I'm still in the spotlight. Sometimes you have to struggle to come back strong."

Lima proved again that he is an entirely different character in the dugout compared to the bullpen, where he would wait for a blowout so he could pitch. He spent much of the weekend series at Cleveland slapping hands with teammates, talking with cameramen, signing autographs and generally being himself. But he also continued the workout regimen that he says has recaptured his arm strength.

One act Lima does not wish to repeat is his last start in Seattle. He lasted two-thirds of an inning last Aug. 21, allowing six runs on nine hits as the Mariners won, 16-1. For his career, he's 2-2 with 8.10 ERA in six games against the M's.

"That was last year," he said. "A lot has changed. I just have to go out there and pitch my game."
Lima grimaced when asked Sunday about that outing.
"Two outs -- that's all I got -- and then I was gone," Lima said. "Please don't remind me.
"It was awful. I've got to go there now and beat them. I've got to pay them back."
Lima said he knows what went wrong last August and doesn't expect a repeat tonight.
"Everything that night was up, up, up," Lima said. "I can't pitch that way."
In Lima's last start, he allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings against Kansas City by keeping most pitches at or just below the knee.
"When I pitch like that, I'm untouchable," Lima said
jose, you crack me up--
good luck ndnfan!!!

 

[Spock]

like the OVER as well .. hopefully he cannot repeat his flukey of last week against Kansas .. Seattle not battin better than
Kansas but shud be able to take care of this guy

 

[ndnfan]

nighthorse and Mayur....GL to both of you

Wigs....thanks for the post on Lima. That was exactly the point I was trying to make when I said he liked to do a lot of talking :talk:. The guy loves the limelight and loves to be the focus of attention, but as far as being UNTOUCHABLE AND IN A GROOVE after the one good outing? :lol:

Just gotta laugh.....Hopefully he doesn't back up his talking!!

GL

 

[Hermione]

Nice day yesterday Pete. I'm on your plays again tonight.

Good luck!

 

[wigs]

ndnfan-- thanks, good luck with tampa too, just saw that mark hirschbeck is behind the plate there tonight in tampa--

 

[slvrblet]

MAKE SOME $$$$$$$

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Like em both Pete....

 

[bohawk]

Just got home from golf. Placed Over with my "local" @ 7 pm
Over 8.Anybody else got that? ND-Man in Lima? I live by the Fair
grounds. Know what LIMA stands for? Lost In Middle America
Really though pretty nice city.

 

[TLove]

Lima gets pounded tonight. Seattle bats wake up big time