Mlb Plays Monday June 10

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 1-2 (-1.2 Units)

SEASON: 133-99 (+27.55 UNITS)
Sides: 96-78 (+10.3 Units)
Totals: 37-21 (+17.25 Units)
___________________________________________

Playing 5 games today:

MONTREAL -140 (1 UNIT)
PHILADELPHIA +125 (1 UNIT)
OVER 8.5 TAMPA BAY -120 (1 UNIT)
UNDER 9.5 WHITE SOX -115 (1 UNIT)
FLORIDA -110 (1 UNIT)


Would not be surprised if the Montreal line moves quite a bit....you might wanna get it in early if you're playing them.

I'll get some write-ups on some of my key angles and reasoning for these plays posted a little later on.

Good luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

I know I'm still going against those 'home' trends for interleague play by going with 3 road teams today, but I'm trying not to sway to much from what I look at...besides those trends aren't holding true so far this season. Actually, so far during interleague play this year, every road team I played won and every home team I played lost....now that's a trend I wouldn't mind continuing today.

 

[ndnfan]

Montreal -140:

Looks like Detroit is back to their early season form. The Tigers have now lost 10 of their last 11 games and today looks like another Tiger loss in my opinion.

This is a gift of a line. Vazquez is one of the premier pitchers in the Majors and I feel is going to have an easy time of it today.

Vazquez has showed improvement every year which is really saying something, cause it's getting to the point where he's not gonna be able to improve much....he's getting that good.

Vazquez's ERA has improved each season he's been in the Majors. His Win % has also improved each season(tough to do playing for Montreal) His strikeout to walk ratio has also improved each year.

I don't really see Vazquez struggling today. He's going against a Detroit team that has very little power, only hitting 47 home runs all season. The Tigers also have the lowest on base % in the league at a pathetic .306 If you think they can play little ball to scrap out some runs...I doubt it. They only have 29 stolen bases on the entire season.

Let's say they do get some runners into scoring postion. Good luck in getting those runners in. Check out Vazquez's situational numbers this season with runners in scoring postion:

Vazquez with runners in scoring pos......batters hitting just .239
Vazquez with runners in scoring pos and 2 out.....hitting just .103

Overall for the season, he's only allowing a .238 average to hitters.

Montreal has had some pitching problems lately and this includes the bullpen which has a HUGE ERA over the last 10 games. I don't see this being a problem today. Vazquez has averaged an amazing 8 innings pitched per game over his last 10 starts, so look for any appearances by the dismal pen to be at a minimum today.

Adam Bernero is pitching for the Tigers. I don't know a lot about Bernero, but I can throw out some stats at ya.

Bernero has given up 46 runs(40 earned) in 64.1 Major league innings and just looks like he's the type to get rattled when he starts getting into some jams. His last start vs Boston, he didn't make it out of the 3rd inning, getting pounded for 9 runs, while giving up 10 hits, and walking 3 in those 2.2 innings.

This season, in this 3 starts, Bernero has allowed a .344 average to hitters when there are runners on and has allowed a .438 average to hitters when there are runners in scoring postion.

The Tiger bullpen will probably have a good shot to be involved as well, and that's not a good thing for the Tigers as the Pen still has an ERA of over 5.00 for the season.

Definately a bargain on this line....Vazquez still isn't a household name yet and the way I look at it, even if Bernero pitches a decent game which is not out of the question as he has had a couple of decent outings prior to the shellacking in his last start, I still feel the Tigers are gonna be hard up to get runs in this one. I Probably would have still made this a play at -180

GL :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

Philadelphia +125:

If you wanna nice little dog play, I think this is the game to do some barking on. A lot of interesting tidbits in this one.

First of all, it looks like Adams is ready to go for Philly. His last game was a disaster(I actually bet against him that game), but that game can be disregarded and thrown out as far as I' m concerned. Not only was Adams still having some lingering problems with neck spasms that forced him to leave the prior game, but it was also against a Florida team that has really pounded him in the past.

What I just stated above is only adding value to the line. I would have made Philly favored in this one.....but I definately don't mind.

Both pitching matchups today are negatives for Cleveland. Let's look at some of the bad situations for the Tribe today:

Adams does not give up many Home runs. As a matter of fact, he hasn't given up more than 9 home runs in any season which is huge considering Cleveland ranks 5th in the league in Home Runs this season. This brings me to ask the question- How does a team like Cleveland which is 5th in the league in home runs rank dead last in runs scored? The answer- The majority of their runs come via the long ball and I can verify this as I watch or listen to almost all the Cleveland games. Definately a big negative for Cleveland today.

Another angle in this pitching matchup is the fact that with Adams not giving up many long balls, he does seem to induce plenty of ground balls and double play balls which is again, a BIG NEGATIVE for the Tribe today, reason being, the tribe leads the league in double plays grounded into with 63 on the season.

One more big negative for Cleveland today....Adams does not walk many at all....the guy throws strikes and Cleveland which ranks 4th in the league in walks drawn, will not have the luxury of many free passes today.

True Philly has been horrible on the road this season, but they did sweep the Tigers on the road, and the travel shouldn't effect them at all, since Cleveland is just a hop, skip, and a jump away.

Getting to the other pitcher today, CC Sabathia, I think Philly has the edge facing him as well.

Sabathia has walked a lot of batters so far in his young career. Sabathia has averaged about 4.5 walks per nine innings his career and this is not a good matchup for him today as Philadelphia is a team that tends to draw a lot of walks. They rank 3rd in the league in walks.

I definately expect Philly to get some runs across today. Lately, Philly has been tearing it up vs lefty pitching and what do you know, Sabathia is a southpaw. Over the last 10 games, Philly has been batting an unbeliebable .378 vs lefties

Bullpen advantage definately goes to the Phillies in this one. Sabathia has averaged only 5.1 innings per start this season which is not good considering the Cleveland pen for the season has an ERA of 5.23 and over the last 10 games it's even worse at 9.32!!

The Philly pen on the other hand has been superb over the last 10 games with a 2.17 ERA however overall it's still at 4.64

Think the line is way out of whack in this one...a lot of that, I feel, is do to the 'excusable' last couple of starts for Adams and of course their horrible road record this season. Definately think Philly is the way to go in this one....we'll see.

GL :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

Florida -110:

This game just seems way to easy to cap!! Let me get to some of the keys in this game:

Kansas City continues to struggle, pitching as well as hitting. Over the last 10 games, KC is hitting only .225 vs righties and only .200 vs lefties and this is not a good time to be in a slumping situation when you're going against someone like AJ Burnett.

Burnett is one of the most dominating pitchers vs right-handed hitters. His entire career, he has only allowed righties to hit for a .208 average vs him. That number is even more staggering this season. So far this year, righties are hitting only .181 off him.

So you're saying that the Royals could possibly have up to 5 left-handed bats facing him...forget that. No damage will be done. He's still only allowing a .255 average to lefties. But what makes things even more in favor of Burnett dominating this entire lineup is the fact that the lefties that KC has are horrible anyhow. Check out their averages this season:

Tucker: .211
Beltran .258
Perez .233
Alicea .183
Ibanez .218

Also, if you think the road is a problem here.....I DON'T THINK SO!! Burnett is about as mentally tough as a pitcher can get. This shows in his career stats where his ERA on the road is almost the same as when at home. As a matter of fact, this season it's even better. His ERA on the road this year is at 3.20 (3.71 at home)


As far as Kansas City goes today, they're throwing out Jeff Suppan to the mound today. Suppan has really struggle of late giving up 17 earned runs in his last 22 innings.

Suppan also is giving up the gopher ball at an alarming rate. He has given up 16 home runs in just 77.1 innings this season
This is not a good matchup for Suppan today. Florida is tied for 3rd in the league in home runs and is also tied for 3rd in the league in runs scored. Which also brings of the fact that usually a pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs doesn't get to many ground balls. This holds true with Suppan who has only induced hitters to ground into 5 double plays all season.

Suppan is also allowing a .318 average to hitters with runners on and a .321 average to hitters when runners are in scoring position.

Bullpens?? Well, Burnett has been a workhorse all season and you almost gotta expect him to go deep into the game in this one, but if the bullpen does see action, it has been very good all season. For the year, Florida's pen has a 3.57 ERA and it's even better over the last 10 games casting a 2.39 ERA.

The Royals pen is not as well off. It's at a whopping 5.18 for the season and it's not much better over the last 10 games at 4.81

I'll take my chances with the Gutsy Burnett and the Marlins in this one.

GL :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

Don't like playing totals without having the Home Ump info, but I feel both totals have enough going for them today even without that.

Over 8.5 Tampa Bay:

Almost felt like LA was the play, but decided to go with the 'over' due to certain unknown situations.

As far as Nomo goes, he still continues to walk an alarming amount of batters. Over the past several years, he has averaged about 4.5 walks per nine innings. I also noticed something interesting....when he pitches in domed stadiums, he seems to walk even more at an average of 6 walks per nine innings(17 starts) True, Tampa Bay doesn't draw many walks, but still would not be surprised to see the D'Rays push across some runs in this one.

Nomo in 4 career starts vs Tampa Bay has a 4.81 ERA. There is one guy in the lineup that simply kills Nomo: Greg Vaughn is a career 7 for 13 with 4 home runs and 10 RBI's vs him. The rest of the players in the lineup have pretty decent overall numbers vs him, but this is over very few at bats so you can't weigh too much into that.

Also an interesting note on Nomo is the fact that his career ERA on the road is about a run higher than his ERA at home.

Wilson Alvarez is going for the D'Rays today, but I feel there's a good chance he gets rocked today. He's coming off his 1st win in almost 3 years and the big factor.....he's left-handed!

The Dodgers hit lefty pitching very well, and although they have struggled recently vs lefties, they are still hitting .295 overall for the season vs them.

The Dodgers are averaging a whopping 6.8 Runs per game vs lefties on the road and 6.1 runs per game vs lefties overall this season! Tampa is averaging a pretty good 4 runs per game vs righties this season.

LA is a team that seems to never let up if they have opportunities to score in the late innings as evidence from the past 2 series, where they scored a whopping 25 times past the 6th inning in the 6 games. These runs came against bullpens that are better than Tampa's.

Speaking of which, Alvarez has only averaged 4.2 innings per start this season, so there is a very good chance we see a lot of the bullpen today. Tampa's pen is like pouring gas in a fire. For the season, their pen has a whopping 5.51 ERA and it's even worse over the last 10 games at 7.03

If you look at the numbers at the Dome. the average runs per game there this season is 9.2 and overall 18 of the 31 games there this season have gone over the total of 8.5(the total today)

Think the number is just a little too low....I'll grab it at the 8.5 and take my chances.

GL :thumb:

 

[RAYMOND]

phillies vs lefties 3-7 avg 3.7 runs per game , and on the road at nite 0-3 vs lhp avg 2.3 runs per game

 

[hyperion]

ND,

Thanks for all your effort. When do you sleep??

 

[Spock]

hey NDN ..

great insights and write up.

I have same leans other than the one for Philadelphia on which I have not done any research.

Also like Anaheim. Any views ?

good luck for all plays. Am with ya on the other 4 plays.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Scooter]

Thanks

 

[forest]

excellent write-ups ndnfan,
usually don't post, but after seeing your plays, 3 of which match my own program plays, I had to chime in

My 2 TOP sides today are... FLORIDA and LA DODGERS

RD FAV are hitting 79% 15-4 since JUNE 1

TOTALS
my system rates totals in 4 diff categories, play must show up in all 4 for me to have a play
note*** UNDERS are producing little better than OVERs right now

la/tb OVER 8.5
mets/cws UNDER 9.5
also have
cubs/hou OVER 8.5
mon/det OVER 8.5
mil/oak OVER 9
stl/sea OVER 9

GL today,
always appreciate reading your stuff!

 

[ndnfan]

Spock...as far as the Anaheim game goes, the line is just too steep. The Pirate bats have woken up lately.....they're hitting .348 vs lefties last 10 games and the bullpen edge which in this game could play large roles slightly favors Pitt. I actually had a lean towards the over but again don't like that enough especially without the Ump info which I feel would be key in this game.

As far as the Phlly-Cleveland game goes, Philly is not scoring much vs lefties this season or on the road for that matter...that will however continue to improve I feel. Cleveland has struggled vs righties all season averaging just 3.9 runs per game and I think with the situations mentioned above, they're gonna be hard up to get many runs in this one. Philly swept Detroit on the road averaging 6.6 runs per game and now gets to face a Cleveland team that is struggling in the bullpen and Sabathia has been far from good at home this year with a 5.91 ERA.


forest.....thanks.
Hyperion...I DON'T SLEEP! That's what working the night shift does to you. Gonna try to get some now though.

GL

 

[loophole]

also, it would seem that philly's offense with the dh should be one of the most improved among the national league teams, especially against lefties, don't you think?

 

[ndnfan]

Loophole....have to agree. especially when you look at Adams career batting average of .045!

However, you might be able to make a strong case against the dh helping them if say someone such as the power hitting Robert Person is pitching :lol:

GL

 

[Evilhomer]

Always enjoy reading your writeups, thanks!!

Your right about the Montreal line, my book has it at -160 now

 

[jmizeus]

nice to see were on the same sides w/chisox under! have to agree w/the philadelphia play-am not playing it but do like them tonite

GL-MIZE

 

[ndnfan]

The White Sox total looks way to high. I'm not buying the fact that the ChiSox players are out of their hitting slumps. That scoring barrage yesterday came against 2 of the worst pitchers out there as far as I'm concerned in Pavano and Reames. Plus they're going against one of the most consistent guys out there in Astacio who hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a game in all 12 starts this season.

Glover thrives in the home atmosphere, where his ERA is just over 3 which is 3 runs lower than his away ERA. The ChSox pitching scares me a bit, but going against this Met team, think the Under solid play here.

Glad we're on the same side in that one Mize!!

 

[Spock]

I totally agree . I think Under 9.5 is what the books have (at least SIA did) ..

Also if u watched the highlights 3 of the runs i think were on the error by the catcher .. the throw was wild to say the least.

Also have not seen teams come out and score tons of runs back to back especially when they have been in a slump. Add to that the good pitching and I think this points to a 4-5 run game.

Good luck
Spock

# still deciding whether to bite on Philadelphia. gotta check the numbers once more.

 

[monkey]

yea

yea

with ya on the montreal & fla play lets start this week out like last week ND :toast:

 

[ndnfan]

Looks like the wind is blowing out to center at 15-20 MPH at Kansas City? Can anyone verify this?

Think this would be a big neg for a pitcher like Suppan and a plus for the Marlins today.