Atlanta +130:
I think Atlanta?s got a very good shot to win this game and at +130 it looks like there's some value here.
Atlanta has been playing very good ball for a while now and has now won 5 games in a row and it could very well be 6 after the game tonight with Kevin Millwood pitching.
Millwood has said that he finally feels as comfortable on the mound as he was three years ago when he won 18 games. In case you didn?t know, Millwood has pitched with an aching shoulder the past couple of seasons and has said the biggest adjustment he?s had to make this year is just learning how to pitch without experiencing any pain!!
The above is what Millwood said few weeks ago and it looks like he has made the adjustments well and is very comfortable on the mound. Millwood has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts and also has a 27-6 strikeout/walk ratio in that 6 game span.
What's interesting is the game that he struggled in was vs this very same Mets team. Millwood simply didn?t have it that day. He gave up 4 runs in 3.2 innings. 2 of those runs came when he hit 2 straight batters with the bases loaded to force in 2 runs. So it?s not like the Met?s players ?own? Millwood or anything, he just didn't have any control and had bad stuff that day. Actually they have pretty bad career numbers vs him:
Alfonso .194
Alomar .167
Burnitz .316
Cedeno .167
Ordonez .278
Payton .154
Perez .500
Piazza .200
Vaughn .000
Pretty dominant numbers for Millwood, plus you throw in the fact that Millwoods gonna want a little revenge and be ready for the Mets in this one especially after that embarrassing start where he just didn?t have any control at all.
As for Al Leiter, it just seems like he?s not quite right the past month or so. His numbers aren?t bad, but it just seems like if he?s not giving up hits, he?s walking way more than is normal for him. This could spell trouble for him today.
Leiter has made one start vs the Braves this season back on April 7 and pitched very well giving up only 1 run in 6 innings. The problem with that is it was back early in the season when the pitchers have the advantage over the hitters plus I feel Leiter was just in better form overall earlier in the season.
There?s a few Braves that have hit Leiter very well in the past. Here are some averages that go back through the 1998 season:
Vinny Castillo .267
Julio Franco .444
Rafael Furcal .294
Chipper Jones .361
Andruw Jones .244
Gary Sheffield .400
So what you have is 6 players in the probable lineup that have numbers over the low .238 career average that Leiter has allowed to hitters over his career.
Leiter is also running into a team that hits southpaws very well and over the last 10 games is just killing lefties. Over the last 10 games the Braves are hitting .339 vs Lefties!!
Bullpens have been good for both teams all season, however I have to give the edge to Atlanta slightly especially over the last 10 games with the Atlanta pen having an ERA of just slightly over 2.00 in that span, while the Mets pen is at 3.00
Of course there is a good chance the game could develop into a pitchers dual and if that?s the case, I think a big key will come down to the better running game which is a huge advantage for the Braves in this one. The Braves are stealing bases at a 66.1% clip this season, while the Mets are at 61.8%. Might not seem like a big difference, but when you throw in the fact that Piazza has only thrown out very very few batters this year....don't know the exact numbers, but I believe he's last in the Majors in percentage of baserunners thrown out, which is the reason teams have more stolen bases vs the Mets than any other team in the league by far, this could be HUGE in this game if it comes down to needing a late run or an insurance run.
Not a ton of keys in this one, but with the Braves at +130 it's enough for me to risk a normal play on.
GL :thumb:
-ndnfan
