Dodgers -145:
This game features a battle of southpaws, but the way I see it, it's gonna be a one sided affair.
Shawn Estes, who's starting for the Mets today, has pretty much struggled for most of this season so far this year with the exception of a couple decent starts. In today's game, expect him to have a rough go of it.
The Mets are on the road today, and Estes has always struggled his whole career on the road. He has almost an equal amount of starts in his career on the road and at home, but what's really astonishing is that his career ERA on the Road is over 2 runs higher than his career ERA at Home. Check out the Home/Away numbers:
Home: 83 starts/42 Wins 21 Losses/ 3.23 ERA
Away: 84 starts/ 23 Wins 33 Losses/ 5.43 ERA
He will also be going against a Dodger team that hits left-handed pitching very well...a trend that has continued from last season. Last year, the Dodgers averaged a whopping 5.6 Runs per game vs Lefties. This season is not much different. Overall, they are averaging 4.9 Runs per game vs lefties and at home they are averaging 6 runs per game vs lefties.
The Dodgers have always given Estes fits over the years. He has made 17 career starts vs LA and is just 3-7 with a 5.36 ERA.
Of course, a lot of those starts came against Dodger teams that featured completely different players, but if you're wondering about the current Dodger team, well the numbers are pretty stunning:
Career averages of current Dodger players vs Estes:
A Beltre .364
S Green .176
M Grissom .533
M Grudzielanek .367
B Jordan .417
E Karros .464
P Lo Duca .500
D Roberts NO AB
C Izturis NO AB
This comes out to a combined batting average of .403 over their careers vs him (52 hits, 129 AB) This group of players has also drawn 18 walks to go along with the high averages.
Last season vs LA, Estes made 5 starts and was 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA! In those starts, he gave up 24 runs, 40 hits, and 8 walks in just 20 innings.
If you look at Estes' numbers this season with runners on base, it's pretty bad. Check them out:
With runners on base....batters hitting .333
With runners in scoring position...batters hitting .370
With runners in scoring postion and 2 out...batters hitting .364
Odalis Perez on the other hand is a pitcher that looks like he's developing into an ACE type pitcher. Perez' numbers are pretty astonishing this year. The season he is 4-1 in 7 starts with an ERA of just 1.66 In 54.1 innings pitched, he has only allowed 30 hits and 6 walks.
The current Mets players that do have career at bats vs Perez are a combined .289 (11 hits, 38 at bats)....not a bad average, but ths is only 38 at bats, plus the fact that Perez has improved bigtime this year from last.
The Mets have really struggled vs lefties this season. They are hitting just .221 overall and over the last 10 games they are hitting aproximately .215 The Mets are averaging just 3.6 runs per game vs lefties this season.
The Met's offense has just been bad no matter who the pitcher's been lately. Over their last 8 games, they are averaging just 2.5 runs per game
Bullpens also favor LA in this game. The last 10 games, the Mets pen has an ERA of aproximately 5.52 and over the last 10 games, the Dodger pen has an ERA of aproximately 3.15
Of course, we should have a better chance of seeing th Met pen, as Estes is averaging around 6 innings per game, while Perez is averaging over 8 innings pitched his last 5 games.
Also, don't know if it'll be much of a factor, but the Dodgers may be a little less fatigued in this one, as the Mets played an extra inning 4 hour 15min game yesterday that was also delayed by rain at the start, while the Dodgers game was much quicker. Both teams did have to make the long travel.
The game looks one sided to me. We'll see.
Good Luck :thumb:
