Mlb Plays Saturday April 13

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 1-2 (-1 unit)

SEASON: 20-16 (+0.9 UNIT)
Sides: 18-12 (+3.65 Units)
Totals: 2-4 (-2.75 Units)
_______________________________________

Playing several games today. I will try to post some of the key angles and a little reasoning why I like them in a bit.

METS -165 (2 UNITS)
UNDER 13.5 COLORADO -110 (2 UNITS)
PITTSBURGH -105 (1 UNIT)
PHILADELPHIA -160 (1 UNIT)
KANSAS CITY +165 (1 UNIT)
TEXAS +125 (1 UNIT)
OVER 11 TEXAS +100 (1 UNIT)


Good luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

Mets -165:

This is an interesting game with a couple interesting angles. Neither team is scoring a bunch of runs, but the Mets are beginning to win. The Mets have won 3 in a row, while the Expos have dropped 2 in a row.

Vazquez who is a great pitcher, might just be a little off his form yet. In his last start he gave up 9 hits in just 6 innings to a pretty weak hitting Cincy team.

Leiter on the other hand has been superb so far. In 2 starts, he's 1-0 with an ERA of just 0.75

Leiter is a southpaw and Montreal does tend to struggle vs lefties. Last year they were the lowest scoring team vs lefties on the road, averaging just 3.1 runs/game and this year they are averaging just 1.42 runs per game overall vs lefties.

The Mets are not tearing it up on the offensive side as well, but like I said they are beginning to win and there is a big KEY in this game. That is Home Plate Ump Brian Gorman

Gorman is a native New Yorker and has favored New York teams in the past. Last year the Mets were 3-1 when he was behind the plate and this year Gorman Umped one New York game(Yankees) and the Yanks won.

Brian Gorman also is known as a "Homer" Ump. The home team won behind the plate more times last year than any other Umpire.

Al Leiter is also 3-0 career when Gorman is calling the Balls and strikes.

 

[ndnfan]

Under 13.5 Colorado:

This game has a lot to do with the Big Strikezone of Doug Eddings. He has had one of the largest strikezones if not the largest over the past 2 years.

The past 2 years, Eddings has averaged just over 15 K's and just over 5 Walks per game. Comes out to almost a 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio

The past 2 years Eddings called 39 Unders and just 20 Overs.

Both Anderson and Neagle have faired decent vs the opposing teams in the past. Nothing amazing but respectable.

Coors field is one of the best places, IMO to get value on certain Unders in games. The Over/Under is always set high, and there's certain times there's a lot of value in the Under. This is one of them.

Also, when Home Plate Ump Doug Eddings was behind the plate the past 2 years with these teams, there have been 7 Unders and just 3 Overs.

 

[ndnfan]

Pittsburgh -105:

Really like Pittsburgh in this game. Basically a rematch of last Saturday's game. Same 2 pitchers going.

Fogg, who's going for Pittsburgh pitched 7 scoreless innings vs the Cubs last Sat. for a win in his 1st major league start. The confidence is high, and pitching in from of the home crowd, he should really be pumped.

Don't really think revenge plays a role in this game. Just don't think Clement will be mentally prepared or possibly physically ready. Last Sat vs the Pirates, he got rocked for 9 Hits and 5 Runs in just 5.1 Innings.

In spring trainging he only worked 5 total innings, so that's only 10.1 total innings combined. Just don't think he's ready yet. He may run into alot of problems today as well.

Clement has just been horrific on the road in his career. Almost twice as bad on the road than at home.

Clement also has in the back of his mind that he just can't pitch very well vs the Pirates. In his career he's just 2-3 with an ERA of 6.58 in 7 starts.

Cubs have never been a really good road team anyways, and Pirates at home last year actually weren't that bad....it was on the road where they had their problems.

I'll take my chances with the Pirates in this one.

 

[TJBELL]

Just wanted to say AWESOME WRITE-UPS!!! have not looked at the games yet, but it sure looks like you do your homework!! keep them coming NDNFAN!! THANKS! Tom

 

[ndnfan]

Really quickly, some notes on the rest:


Philly.....Person very different pitcher at home. Should have no problems with this reds team. Robert Person has a 30-12 career record at home.

Kansas City.....alot of value here. Sure the tribe is rollin, but I can see this game possibly being high scoring. No way KC should be +165. The Royals are averaging 6.4 Runs/game this year vs Righties it's the lefties they have problems with. Drese who's going for the tribe, will occasionally have problems with his control. I have this game at close to an even game. I'll take KC and the +165

Texas-Seattle (Thanks Bohawk)(Was in a hurry)....should be a very high scoring game. Joe Brinkman's behind the plate that = tight strikezone. Brinkman has umped 5 straight OVERS including the last 3 games last year and is 4-0 on the Overs with these teams when he's behind the plate.
Also going with Texas as I feel Irabu has a little more command of his pitches than Abbott.


Good Luck all.

 

[Tito]

First let me say that your write-ups are very good. Keep it up.

On the Cle/KC game one thing to note. Ryne Drese is on the mound for the Tribe. He is 2-0, but he has only pitched 10.2 innings. He hasn't been able to get out of the 5th inning in either start. His ERA is 5.91, but the Tribe has scored 15 runs for him. Sounds a little like the Dave Burba story from last year when he was 6-1 with a 6.23 ERA at the end of May. KC has some punch in their bats. If the game gets in ( it's raining right now), I see them knocking Drese out early. The line is as high as it is because of the Tribe's streak. I agree this game should be close to even. Take the royals to win this one going away.

Again, great write-ups. Keep them coming

 

[ndnfan]

Tito....I think we always seem to have a good reading on the tribe. Although I've lost 2 totals on them, I haven't lost playing a side. Always like to hear your views on them as well.

Good luck today.

 

[giantfandave]

nice writeups ndnfan.
i like your plays except the mets play

vasquez is probably the one pitcher in the east that the mets have most trouble with. in 2001 at shea he pitched twice for 13 innings giving up 4 er on 13 hits with 2 bb and 12 k's and a era of 2.77; while overall he went 20 innings giving up a total of 4 runs on 17 hits with 21 k's and a era of 1.80
meanwhile even though the expos have problems with lefties, they have faired pretty well against leiter. leiter has faced the expos 12 times going 6-4 over 12 starts; where he went 72.1 innings and gave up 39 er on 70 hits, 27 bb, and 64 k's for an era of 4.85, so he's definately received the run support to go 6-4. but with vasquez's numbers vs the mets and the offense the mets are putting up right now, i think the dog is worth a shot.

good luck

 

[ndnfan]

giantfandave and the rest thanks for the comments.

Giantfandave....thanks for your view on the game. That's what makes this place great. Heck, if everyone liked the same ones we'd all be rich (or broke)

Anyways, I know Vazquez pitched well vs. the Mets last year, but then again who didn't :shrug: The Mets' were one of the lowest scoring teams last year. Anyways, I think if you look at some career stats vs Vazquez, the couple of new editions to the team might help.

Burnitz: .368 Average, 3 HR in 19 AB
Alomar: only 2 AB

Other regulars seem to have hit him decent with the exception of Piazza.

Alfonzo: .300
Ordonez: .286

Just feel with the beginning of the season, it could be a little different story with Vazquez and the New Mets. Plus I like the other little angles.

But again, thanks for your insight.

GL

 

[bohawk]

Think you meant Texas-Seattle over. Unless Abbott got traded to Oakland. Think rain will end here in Ohio for the Tribe game. Good stuff, keep it up. bohawk GL

 

[EASY MONEY!]

First time poster. Enjoy reading your picks.

 

[ndnfan]

Recap: 3-4 (-2.9 Units)

A couple bad breaks...5 errors on the Mets leading to a lot of unearned runs. Royals blew a pretty good lead.

Just one of those days,Gonna happen, part of gambling, gotta move on and hope the uncontrollables equal out by the end of the season.

Be back later tonight or early morning for Sundays games.