Mlb Plays Saturday April 27

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.45 Unit)

SEASON: 52-33 (+15.05 UNITS)
Sides: 40-27 (+9.15 Units)
Totals: 12-6 (+5.9 Units)
_________________________________________

Today's one of those rare days, where there's a large amount of games that are fitting perfectly with the different angles and edges I use when handicapping.

I'm playing 8 games today:

COLORADO +105 (1 UNIT)
ATLANTA -125 (1 UNIT)
PITTSBURGH -115 (2 UNITS)
OVER 10 DETROIT -105 (1 UNIT)
WHITE SOX -165 (1 UNIT)
KANSAS CITY -150 (1 UNIT)
CLEVELAND -110 (1 UNIT)
SEATTLE -135 (1 UNIT)


Alot of games, but hopefully alot of winners as well. I'll try to get some write-ups on my reasoning behind these games a little later if I get time.


Good Luck in all your plays today.

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

Pittsburgh -115:

This is a game that features a couple of less than stellar offenses. San Diego is only batting .239 as a team. Pittsburgh, is not much better, batting at .241 as a team.

In this game, I expect the pitchers and the Home Plate Umpire to have huge roles in the outcome of this game. Home Plate Umpire is Derryl Cousins. Cousins has been known for his very tight strikezone. Year after year, Cousins has had one of the smallest and this will favor the Pirates in this game.

Although, the road team has won 3 of 4 with Cousins behind the plate this year, that has to do alot with bad matchups in those games..at least in my opinion. Historically, Cousins has always tended to show a little more favoritism towards the home team.


Ben Howard will be making his major league debut today and look for him to have a rough day of it. Howard is a big strikeout pitcher that is contributed to his very good fastball.

Howard, however will be going against a Pirate team that is a good fastball hitting team and that does not strikeout much. Pittsburgh ranks 5th least in strikeouts in the National League. Expect Pittsburgh to get alot of runners on today.

Howard did put up very solid numbers last year at Single-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A Mobile. He walked 47 and struck out 136 in 131.2 innings. Very good stats, but remember these were put up at Single-A and Double-A. DON'T LET THE GOOD CONTROL NUMBERS FOOL YA.

Howard, will not be able to expand the strikezone too much today with Cousins behind the plate. I believe there is the possibility of him getting flustered bigtime today. As I said earlier, Cousins has a very tight strikezone (even more for the road pitcher) and Ben Howard has had some MAJOR control problems in the past.

Howard Prior to 2001, had led his league in walks allowed in each of his first 4 pro seasons (1997-2000), averaging 8.9 walks per 9 innings

This is Howard's major league debut and it's coming on the road which will make it even tougher for him. I believe frustration will set in and possibly make this youngster even more flustered.

Kip Wells is not a premier pitcher by far, but other than one bad start this year, he has pitched very well. Pittsburgh is also giving Wells plenty of run support this year, averaging over 6 runs per game when he starts.

Kip Wells has pitched one game in his career with Cousins was behind the Plate and picked up a win in that game, only allowing 1 run.

San Diego to go along with their poor hitting this year, is also tied for 2nd last in steals this season, so don't expect alot of runners in scoring postion for the Padres today.

Pittsburgh has a phenominal record this year in one run games. This has alot to do with their great bullpen which sports a very low ERA of 2.73. So if the game is tight, the advantage also goes to Pittsburgh.

 

[ddubs]

Good stuff. I like Pitt a lot today, too. I can't believe the line is only -115. Kip Wells has staff ace material, and is starting to pitch like it. Pitt got a steal in their trade with Chicago in getting Wells for Ritchie.

Good luck today.

 

[ndnfan]

OVER 10 DETROIT -105:

Expect this game to have tons of base runners and hopefully plenty of runs to go along with that.

Cornejo, a righty is pitching for the Tigers today. Cornejo should not even be in the Major leagues. He's never proved himself at the Major league level, yet Detroit manager Luis Pujols says he plans to keep him the rotation.

Cornejo has started 12 games in the Majors in his career and is just 4-6 with a 7.64 ERA. In those starts he has allowed 75 hits and walked 36 in just 50.2 innings.

Minnesota should feast off him today. They are a team that is batting .293 vs righties this season and are averaging 5.3 runs per game.

Believe it or not, these stats should only go up after this game vs Cornejo. Cornejo just can't get anyone out. Overall, batters are hitting .344 off him in his Major league career and it doesn't matter if they are lefty or righty batters. Lefties are hitting .363 and righties .324.

Expect Minnesota to have plenty of base runners today.
Minnesota faced Cornejo once in the past and they lit him up for 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 5.1 innings.

Kinney is pitching for the Twins today. Kinney has some potential, but I feel he's gonna allow several Tiger hitters to reach base as well today.

Kinney has started 9 games in the Majors. In these games, he's allowed 28 walks and 44 hits in 48.2 innings. So as you can see, his control is far from great also.

I expect Kinney to have a rough time getting these Tiger hitters out today. Detoit is a team that rarely strikes out. They are ranked 2nd in the Majors for fewest strikeouts.

Kinney also has some problems vs left handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .280 career off him and this is a Tiger team that will more than likely have 5 left handed bats in the lineup today(Fick, Higgenson, Simon, Cruz, Macias). The 3 Tiger players in the lineup today that have faced him in the past are hitting a combined .500 vs him (5 for 10).

Detroit's Bullpen also has not been good. They sport an overall ERA of 6.18 so this should also help with the Over.

Home Plate Ump Paul Schreiber had a pretty normal strikezone last season, but has had a somewhat tight strikezone over the the past 4 seasons.

 

[Tito]

With you on Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Took the Twins yesterday based on info that Cornejo was pitching. Bad info. Taking Twins today. Looking for Twins to score a bundle early on.

Good luck today

 

[ndnfan]

Kansas City -150:

Battle of a couple of righties in this one with the edge going to Kansas City.

Ponson, who's pitching for Baltimore, has lost 7 straight decisions and hasn't picked up a win since June 28 of last year.

Ponson also pitches a lot worse in night games than day games. Over his last 37 night games, he has an ERA of 5.46

Ponson has also struggled against KC in the past, especially last season. He made 2 starts vs the Royals last year and got rocked for 11 runs on 19 hits in just 11.2 innings.

Kansas City should have no problems putting up some runs vs Ponson today. This is a team that hits righties very well, averaging 5.6 runs per game off them this year.

Three players in the KC lineup especially have hit Ponson hard in their careers:

Carlos Beltran .533
Raul Ibanez .400
Mike Sweeney .429

Baltimore will struggle today. This is a team that is only hitting .232 overall and even against righties they are only batting .238 off them.

Paul Byrd is pitching for the Royals today. So far, he's been a work horse. He's made at least 93 or more pitches in every start this year and so far is a perfect 4-0

Byrd has had amazing control this year. In the 4 starts this season he has walked none in 28.1 innings It's gonna be tough for Baltimore to get any rallies going today, especially with that .232 batting average and the pinpoint control of Byrd. KC's bullpen has been shaky this season, but expect Byrd to go deep into this one, possibly going the distance.

Byrd made one start vs the O's last year and did not allow a run in 7 innings.

Another big angle in this game is Home Plate Umpire Brian Gorman. Gorman is one of those Umps that likes to see the Home town fans watch the home town team win. As a matter of fact, over the past 51 games that he was the Home Ump, the Home team won 34 of those.

KC easy in this one.

Good Luck.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Awesome info as always, glad to see you on Pitt

GL