Tennessee tout??since I can?t sleep, no time better than the present to throw out some tidbits on this game.
Houston ?125:
I always pay close attention to young pitchers. Sometimes the best value you can get out there is with the pitchers that aren?t established yet and I have every right to believe Kirk Saarloos has a good shot to pitch a dandy today and I?m banking pretty heavily on it.
First let?s take a look at how he?s performed in the minors:
In 2001 at Single-A Lexington he had a 1.17 ERA in 31 innings only giving up 18 hits and had an awesome 40-7 strikeout/walk ratio.
In 2002 at Double-A Round Rock he was 10-1 with a 1.40 ERA in 83.1 innings only giving up 48 hits (ARE YOU KIDDING ME 
) and had an awesome 82-21 strikeout/walk ratio.
In 2002 at Triple-A New Orleans he was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings only giving up 12 hits and had an awesome 19-2 strikeout/walk ratio.
Saarloos as you probably already know got rocked in his 1st three major league starts, and got sent down to triple-A which is what you see what he did there in the above stats. More than likely just nerves in those first three starts, but Saarloos got recalled and showed the potential he has. In the 1st four starts after being recalled he only gave up a total of 5 runs combined and won all of them. You?ll see this a lot from young pitchers?..performing a lot better the 2nd time being recalled. Mainly just because they?re not near as nervous.
Saarloos doesn?t throw really hard, but was considered to have the best changeup in a very deep Astros organization, has a very good slider and has so much movement on his pitches it?s UNREAL. So why did he struggle the following 3 starts?
Well after the 3rd bad start, he was studying videotape and realized the problem. He found that his sinking fastball was flattening out because he was opening up his left shoulder sooner than normal, causing his pitches to rise slightly. Well guess what? The following game he pitched 7 shutout innings only allowing just 4 hits
That problem was also the reason he was allowing so many Home Runs this season (10) ?In case you wondered, he only allowed 2 home runs in 99.1 innings in the minors this season. So I expect him to follow up that last good outing with another today.
The word on Saarloos is ?He can?t throw a ball straight if his life depended on it? In other words, that?s how good the movement is on his pitches! Saarloos does have very good control however and has had a good strikeout/walk ratio at every level he?s pitched at including the Majors.
Another reason I think Saarlos has an easy time against the Dodgers is also with the fact that he does induce a lot of groundball outs and when pitching at a small park like Houston?s is, the more ground balls the better. Check out this stat:
Saarloos already has induced 11 double play balls in just 11 games and may get some rally killers again if the situation calls for it??The Dodgers lead the league in Double Plays grounded into at 127!
Saarloos is a right-hander and this should help also going against a team like LA that simply kills lefty pitching but is actually below average vs righties:
LA Dodgers are hitting just .253 vs righties for the season(thru Thursday) and if you look at their last 10 games it?s even worse at just .225 vs righties (thru Thursday)
Getting to Omar Daal who?s starting for the Dodgers, Daals been pitching tough lately, but there?s a couple reasons I think Houston may get some runs off him today:
Daal?s ERA on the road this season is about 1.5 runs higher than his ERA pitching at the low scoring Dodger stadium.
Daal also has a pretty bad history when facing the Astros:
Daal has made 6 career starts vs Houston along with several relief appearances and is 0-6 with a 7.43 ERA vs them Trust me Daal has this in the back of his head and if any rally gets started, you never know, Daal could lose his concentration because of it. There's some current Astro players that have very good numbers vs him as well. These are some averages that go back through the 1998 season:
Bagwell .533 average plus .611 on base %
Biggio .438 average plus .471 on base %
Hidalgo .308 average plus .333 on base %
Hunter .429 average plus .500 on base %
Lugo .500 average plus .600 on base %
Berkman .667 on base % (only 1 official at bat?0-1 with 2 walks)
Daal is also left-handed and this is good news for Houston who does hit lefties pretty well. Over the last 10 games, they are hitting .333 vs lefties(thru Thurs) and at home they are hitting an amazing .307 vs lefties(thru Thurs).
Houston is averaging 5.1 Runs per game vs Left handed pitching at Home this season.
LA is averaging 4.3 Runs per game vs Right handed pitching on the Road this season.
Bottom line?..I?m expecting a good performance by Saarloos with maybe Billy Wagner closing it out, and even though Daal?s been pitching well, Houston?s tendency to hit lefties well and Daal?s poor history vs the Astros, I expect some runs from the STROS today. Houston's motivation remains high, being only 2.5 back of the Cards so we?ll see what happens?.I?ll try them for my normal one unit play.
Good Luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
