Milwaukee +135:
Really like this dog to do a little barking today. I think you?re getting extra value just for the simple fact of the bettors perception of Milwaukee being bad on the road plus the fact that Haynes is really appearing to pitch better than he is so far. Plus Wright?s perception by bettors.
Jamey Wright?s been very bad all season, but if you remember last season, the guy had some streaks where he looked like an ace type pitcher and I wouldn?t be surprised to see a very good outing today from this guy. Wright pitched a complete game 3-hit shutout last start and although I don?t expect another shutout, I think this could be a good sign for him.
Wright was on the DL earlier this season with rotator cuff tendonitis, so you had to figure it might take several starts before he finds some form again. If you?re thinking that last game?s start was just a fluke, I?m not so sure of that. True it was just one good game, but if you look at the previous 2 starts before that one, they were against St Louis and Houston?..2 teams that he had never had success with over the course of his career. He is just 2-14 career in 23 career starts against these 2 clubs with an ERA of around 7.30, so I think the last start could be a very good indicator of what his form could be rounding into.
Wright vs Cincy the past 3 seasons has made 5 starts and is 4-1 with a 3.69 ERA and if you take a look at how the current Reds players hit him, the probable starters in the lineup today are hitting just .244 since 1998 off him (12 hits, 49 at bats)
Wright has the ability to maintain his focus when not playing at home. His career ERA Away is almost 2 runs lower than his career ERA at Home. Some of this was a result of his playing days in Colorado, but it has seemed to hold true the past few seasons as well. Doesn?t bother me one bit playing a pitcher like this?.it shows they are mentally tough and can pitch in any surroundings?including unfriendly one. Wright also seems to pitch better in night games. This is holding true this season as well with his ERA being over 3 runs lower in night games than day games. You can also expect some 2 for 1 outs as Wright possesses a nasty sinker and induces a lot of ground outs.
Getting to Jimmy Haynes, the style is much like Wright. Both will walk their fair share plus like Wright, he will get a lot of ground ball outs and double play balls. However, Haynes numbers are pretty much horrible over his career and the way I look at it, he has simply been getting ?lucky? this season. His career ERA is 5.37 and he actually does not benefit at all when pitching at home. His ERA at home is 5.49 over his career. The same trend is continuing this season. Haynes ERA in night games is also a half run higher in night games than day games over his career plus that trend is also continuing this season.
Milwaukee seems to hit righties pretty good this season and taking a look at the Breweres players, they seem to have no problems with Haynes. These are some averages vs Haynes that go back through the 1998 season:
Hammonds .429
Hernandez .500
Ochoa .429
Sanchez .667
Sexon .400
Stairs .286
Young .350
With those numbers, you gotta feel the Brewers will put up some runs today.
As far as bullpens go. I?m gonna give a slight edge to the Brewers in this one. Looks like they are headed in opposite directions. Milwaukee?s pen was pretty bad early in the season, but is really pitching well of late. Over the last 10 games (not including the Fri game), their pen has a very low 1.77 ERA! Cincinnati?s pen started off very good, but is showing sign of some heavy overuse epecially over the past several games.
After all the stupid changes in the Umpiring in yesterday?s games, it looks like the Ump will be Brian Onora in this one. This is gonna be a huge advantage for Wright in this game. Wright loves to work the corners and throws a nasty sinker and should help bigtime. Onora has one of the biggest strike % calls this season at 64.6% to go along with his 2.4 to 1 strikeout-walk ratio. Wright is a pitcher that I really like to make sure who the Ump is before I go with him as he?s a corner nibbler. So should help in this game.
Reds are playing under .500 ball at home this season and have lost 3 of there last 4 at home while the Brewers are starting to play much better on the road of late.
Actually I think the game should be closer to pickem, but is not due to the the perceptions of the teams and players. I think the Brew crew has a very good shot to win this one, so lay a little cabbage on it.
GL :thumb:
