Mlb Plays Saturday May 18

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 2-2 (+0 units)

SEASON: 96-67 (+26.35 UNITS)
Sides: 72-55 (+13.15 Units)
Totals: 24-12 (+13.2 Units)
_____________________________________________

Playing several games today:

TEXAS -130 (1 UNIT)
OVER 9 TEXAS -120 (1 UNIT)
ANAHEIM -130 (1 UNIT)
ST LOUIS -180 (2 UNITS)
MILWAUKEE +130 (1 UNIT)
SAN DIEGO -105 (1 UNIT)
ARIZONA -225 (1 UNIT)

I will try to get several write-ups on my reasoning behind these plays later on.

Good luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[EASY MONEY!]

Good Luck Today

I Like All those Picks:thumb: :thumb:

Hope for a SUPER DAY!! Thanks for your Picks EASY MONEY!

 

[Tito]

ndnfan;

Looks like your having another solid week. Keep up the roll. Love the Anaheim and St. Louis picks.

Good Luck today.

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks Easy and Tito....appreciate the support.

 

[ndnfan]

St. Louis:

Moneyline on this one is high, but it's not near as high as it should be. Expect St. Louis to get up early in this one and never look back.

St Louis is starting to get on one of their patented winning streaks...last year they strung a few nice long winning streaks together and looks like they are in a midst of one here. The Cardinals have won 5 in a row, 7 of their last 8 games.

St. Louis has also played well at home this season, going 12-7.

St Louis is a team that hits right-handed pitching very well. They are batting .274 vs righties overall and .278 at home vs righties.

Cincy on the other hand, is only batting .246 vs righties overall and on their road games, they are only batting .220 vs righties.

Jose Rijo, overall, has pitched well for the Reds this season, however, his over his last 3 starts, he has really allowed a lot of base runners. Over those 3 starts, he is allowing an average of 15.85 base runners per nine innings.

Expect St Louis to take full advantage of that last last stat. St Louis is a team that leads the league in on base percentage and should get plenty of runners on base today. Jose Rijo is basically pitching with an 'artificial' elbow and pretty much throwing 'batting practice speed' fastballs. I believe last game, his fastball was being clocked in the very low 80's. The Cardinals are a very good hitting team and is also a patient team at the plate.

Matt Morris is pitching for the Cards today and Morris is a pitcher starting to get on a big roll. Over his last 3 starts, he has only allowed 2 total runs. He is also only allowing an average of 7.56 baserunners per nine innings over these last 3 games which is less than half of what Rijo is allowing.

Morris has made 5 career starts vs Cincy and in those he is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. Both of the win decisions came last year vs the Reds when he was 2-0 vs them.

St Louis is playing at home which means plenty of fan support for Morris who is a pitcher that really thrives on the energy and support of the home fans. Check out Morris' home and away career stats:

Morris at home: 31-13 2.28 ERA
Morris on the road: 19-14 4.05 ERA

That's a pretty amazing home record and is also something that has continued this season. So far at home this year, Morris is 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA

Another big angle in this game is the Home plate Umpire. Home Ump in this one is Tim Welke. Welke is one of those Umps that really wants the home town crowd to enjoy a 'win' by their team and sometimes this guy will squeeze the visiting team pitcher a bit more than the home pitcher. If you track Welke back all the way through the 1998 season, you will see that the home team has went 83-57 with Welke as the home ump. This plays right along with Morris's awesome career numbers at home.

Bullpens have pretty much been awesome all season for both clubs, I will however give the slight edge to the Cardinals here. St Louis pen over the last 10 games has a microscopic 0.82 ERA. Cincy's pen over the last 10 games has a 2.29 ERA however this does include at least one blown game against this very same St Louis team.

I think St Louis gets up early in this one and never looks back.

Good Luck :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

Texas and OVER 9 Texas:

Really was pretty easy to cap this one. I expect a pretty high scoring game with Texas coming out on top after all is said and done.

Detroit is struggling, they have lost 7 of their last 8 games and today you might be tallying on another loss with Sparks on the mound.

Steve Sparks just hates facing the Texas Rangers. In his career, he has made 15 starts vs the Rangers and is just 4-8 with a 6.28 ERA. Over those 15 starts, he has allowed a whopping 110 hits in just 77.1 innings So mentally, this will be going throuh his mind, especially once a few runners get aboard. Expect a lack of focus and concentration by Sparks when Texas gets some runners aboard.

Of couse, a lot of those starts came against players that aren't currently on the team, so lets take a look at the current Texas players career averages vs Sparks. They are unreal:

F Catalonotto .385
R Greer .391
B Haselman .444
G Kapler .455
M Lamb .857
H Perry .375
A Rodriguez .450
R Palmeiro .158
M Young .500
C Murray 1.000
J Gonzalez .250

Those are just astonishing numbers and it's over quite a few at bats, so it's no fluke that these players have no problems with Sparks. (52 hits, 137 at bats)

Of course, if Texas knocks Sparks out of the game, we get to see possibly some more gas poured into the fire with the Tigers bullpen, which has a 5.42 ERA for the season.

So you're wondering why I'm also playing the 'OVER' as well as Texas? Well, a lot of that has to do with the Home plate Umpire. Home Ump is Mark Wegner, who has been known as a 'Homer' umpire over the past several years.

The home team has gone 61-35 over Wegner's last 96 times as the Home Ump. Now, what's key about this is the fact that when you have an Umpire such as Wegner behind the plate, usually it doesn't keep the road team from scoring... doesn't have alot of effect on that aspect, but basically allows the home team to get more runs...reason being, the Umpire tends to squeeze the strikezone a bit for the visiting pitcher.

Chan Ho Park will be making his 2nd start since coming off the DL. His 1st start came against this Tigers team last Sunday and he pitched very well, going 5 innings allowing just 1 run. I expect the Tigers to hit Park a little better today having just seem him less than a week ago, plus he will probably be on a pitch count again.

Park also has had a tendency to walk some batters over the course of his career. He has averaged over 4 walks per nine innings over his whole career, and if he gets squeezed at all by Wegner, which is likely today, the Tigers may get some runners aboard and possibly some runs as well.

Chances are good that we will see both bullpens today. Both pens are horrible. The Detroit pen has a 5.42 ERA for the season and the Texas pen is just as bad at 5.21.

Some trends that support the 'over' in this game:

Sparks last 7 games, the over is 5-1-1
Of Wegners 9 games as the Ump this year, the over is 7-2

What I expect in this game, is possibly a lot of runs with Texas coming out on top.

Good luck :thumb:

 

[RAYMOND]

good luck

 

[ddubs]

Really appreciate the hard work you put into these write-ups, it's very time-consuming, that's for sure.

Good luck today. Love Tx Over.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

enjoyed reading your write-ups so far ....!!

 

[loophole]

read your writeup on the detroit over and agree about park. cool day with the wind blowing off the lake can't be good for a tight hamstring. i'd be surprised to see park make it past the fifth inning today.

 

[ndnfan]

loop....definately a chilly day in Detroit. Think you're right about maybe 5 innings possibly being the max innings today. Word has it that he had soreness in not just the one, but both hamstrings during his time on the DL.

 

[monkey]

Thanks

Thanks

THanks for the write-ups ND always read them

 

[ndnfan]

Milwaukee +130:

Look for the Brewers to beat the Cubs again today. The Brewers have won the last 5 meetings with the Cubs.

The Cubs are also a team in dissarray losing their last 8 games.

Cubs will be facing a right-hander today which is not good news. The Cubbies are only hitting .232 on the season vs righties and their last 10 games vs righties is even worse at .188

Lieber is pitching for the Cubs today and has always had problems with Milwaukee throughout his career. He does own a 3-1 career mark vs them, but don't let that record fool ya. He has made 9 career starts vs Milwaukee and has given up 65 hits and 34 earned runs in just 57.1 innings. His career ERA is 5.34 vs the Brewers which is the 2nd highest ERA of all the teams he has faced in his career.

If you're wondering about Lieber's stats vs the current Brewers players, they're not too impressive. Check out these numbers:

Jose Hernandez .333
Tyler Houston .385
Geoff Jenkins .333
Alex Sanchez .500
Richie Sexon .500
Eric Young .333
Paul Bako .143
R Belliard .267
J Hammonds .133

As you can see, most of them in this lineup hit him very well.

Lieber just faced this Brewers team last Sunday and got rocked for 5 runs off 8 hits in just 6 innings pitched. Now normally if a decent starting pitcher such as Lieber is gets rocked, you can expect them to bounce back with a solid start next time out. I don't feel this is the case here. Lieber has really struggled his last 3 starts, giving up 14 runs and 25 hits in just 21 innings. Mentally, Lieber knows he historically has problems with the Brewers....this coupled with the fact that he has really lacked concentration of getting hitters out lately may play a role....especially when these Cub's pitchers KNOW that their offense is not gonna give them much run support. Lieber may have a lot of pressure on him today.

This kind of pressure gets intensified when a pitcher knows he has struggled vs a certain team. Lieber may have these pressure situations bigtime today. Check out his Situational stats with runners on base this season:

Lieber with runners on....batters hitting .290
Lieber with runners in scoring position...batters hitting .300
Lieber with runners in scoring postion and 2 out...hitting .412

Something you may not have known as well, is the fact that Lieber hates pitching in night games. Lieber likes those day games at Wrigley, but this one's at night today and to prove this, check out his day game vs his night games in his career:

Lieber in Day games: 87 starts, 39-26 3.34 ERA
Lieber in Night games: 124 starts, 44-51 4.90 ERA

AS you can see, his ERA at night is over 1.5 runs higher than the day games, and this is a fact that is holding true to form this season as well. This season, Lieber's ERA at night is 5.40 which is over 2.5 runs higher than his day games this year.

Jose Cabrera , the pitcherr for Milwaukee, is gonna be making his 2nd career start. Don't know alot about Cabrera, but I do know that I expect a better showing this outing than his 1st start. Not only did he have an unfavorable Umpire in his 1st start, but you gotta remember that it was his first start, and he had to be pretty nervous for that reason.

Cabrera over his career as a relief pitcher does have an ERA of 3.73 in 190.2 innings, while only walking 66, while striking out 149.

This guy has really been able to focus this season with runners on base this season.

Cabrera with runners on .....hitters batting just .186
Cabrera with runners in scoring postion....hitters batting .167
Cabrera with runners in scoring pos and 2 out....batting .083

Bullpens have to favor Milwaukee in this one. The Cubs pen has really been bad of late. The Cub pen has an ERA of 6.17 over the last 10 games, while the Brewers pen over the last 10 games has an ERA of 3.94.

Gotta feel the Cubs losing streak continues today. I'll take my chances with the Milwaukee as a dog

GL :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

San Diego -105:

San Diego has lost the 1st 2 games of this Mets series, and I really don't think they're gonna lose 3 in a row to this team at home. San Diego plays very tough at home. They have a 14-6 record at home this season.San Diego has won 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Mets.

Tomko is pitching for the Padres today, and I think he'll have a pretty easy time with this Mets lineup. Mets did put up a lot of runs yesterday...don't know if this will help them get out of their offensive slumping status or not, but I'll take my chances today with Tomko who's been tough all season.

Tomko loves the home crowd adrenaline and feeds off it. He has always been much better in his games at home than on the road.

Tomko's career ERA at home: 3.79
Tomko's career ERA away: 4.86

Tomko has also been tough as nails this season when he gets in pressure situations. Check out these situational averages with runners on base:

Tomko with runners on.....batters hitting .143
Tomko with runners in scoring postion ......batters hitting .108
Tomko with runners in scoring pos. and 2 out...batters hitting .158

Overall this season, players are only hitting a combined .231 vs him.

Estes is pitching for the Mets today, and has been very shaky this season. His last 3 starts, he's 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA. He is allowing an average of 17.44 men to reach base per nine innings in those starts. For the season Estes is allowing 13.13 men to reach base per nine innings.

Estes is also a pitcher that struggles pitching on the road. He lets the pressure get to him way too much. His career ERA on the road is over 2 runs higher than when pitching at home.

Estes pitching away: 23-33 5.40 ERA
Estes pitching at home: 42-21 3.23 ERA

This horrible road record is continuing this season for Estes. So far this year, he is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. Estes is a pitcher that lets things get to him mentally when the pressure mounts and the crowd starts getting into it. Just look at his situational stats when the pressure's on:

EStes with runners on base.....batters hitting .329
Estes with runners in scoring position....batters hitting .353
Estes with runners in scoring pos and 2 out....batters hitting .333

Estes is allowing all players to hit for a .318 average vs him this season.


Both these pitchers have big contrasts in their home and away records and this will more than likely be intensified today with the Home plate Umpire being Marty Foster. Foster's been known to favor the home team. The home team is 31-18 his last 49 games as the home ump. Which could very well mean a little larger zone for Tomko and possibly a tighter zone for Estes. Estes is a pitcher that has a tendency to walk some batters. His whole career, he has averaged over 4 walks per nine innings and if Foster squeezes him even a little, Estes could get into some major trouble today.

The one thing that does bother me abit in this one is the great career numbers Estes has vs San Diego. I do feel, however, that the other angles along with the current form of Estes will outweigh this. We'll see.

GL :thumb:

 

[loophole]

i have tomko 1-4, 7.53 era lifetime vs the mets. i lean to the over in this game.

 

[ndnfan]

loophole....although the career numbers aren't the best vs the mets.....most of those came against players that aren't on the Mets anymore.

Last year he didn't have any starts vs the Mets and if you look at the current Mets players in the lineup today that have faced Tomko, they are hitting around .280 career vs him. Not bad, but this is only over around 50 total at bats....so don't think that career number vs the Mets is that big of factor in this one. I also feel Tomko is much improved this season also, as far as being able to concentrate on getting hitters out in key situations.

Just my 2 cents.

As far as the total, I would have to agree though, i think the over is a better play than the under.


GL.....This St Louis game is making me sick so far....hopefully the others make up for it.