Mlb Plays Sunday July 14

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 2-3 (-2.25 Units)

SEASON: 185-136 (+41.25 UNITS)
Sides: 131-103 (+20.3 Units)
Totals: 54-33 (+20.95 Units)
__________________________________________

Playing 2 games today:

OVER 8 METS -125 (1 UNIT)
COLORADO +165 (1 UNIT)

Check spock's thread for analysis and reasoning for the Over bet.

Good luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[Spock]

Good luck as always Pete.

Was lookin at the Under in the Anaheim game but its a pass. The Ump is 4-1 Over in last 5 games.

Not yet looked at Colorado game.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Spock]

pete ..

I know there was a discussion about the weather and wind and its effects.

As far as I can recall the discussion was how the ball travels in the air ..

What about humidity and moisture affecting the pitchers ?
I have seen from playin myself that it becomes hard to have a lot of control under humid conditions.

As far as I can recall its pretty hot and humid in NYC.

What are your views on this ? I dont have any documentation on this but just a point which came to mind.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[trademaster]

Your the best capper in here I say, with your plays you made me see the light at the end of the tunnel. I am taking your Rockies pick . Passing on the mets/phillies over because I don't like to bet on the same play three times in a row.

 

[vchipsliu]

Hi Pete:
Thanks for the excellent work, I do enjoy it.........

100% agree on the Mets OVER.....
But I am kind of curious about the Rockies play........
Their O is not good, D is aweful recently
(I watched two of the three games this series)
Chacon is not an impressive starter for me as well.

I appreciate if you could post some write up if you have time, please ?


GL

 

[Spock]

Somethin that i saw .. just puttin it down .. there must be a lot of reasons of course that only Pete can give ..

have not looked at all the stats but does strike me that Reuter is 6-6 against Colorado and has a very high ERA of 6.27 and a Whip of 1.595

Also his teams are 7-8 against Colorado.

Also he won against Chacon some days back. Revenge factor ??
There was a thread about same pitchers pitchin against each other again. And the possiblity that the losin pitcher in close game wanna get even.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[ndnfan]

thanks trademaster.....I know what your saying, but I don't like to bet against streaks either...like to ride them sometimes....a lot of times you'll see OVERs or UNDERs really come in streaks. Most of that because of pitchers or bullpens really struggling or in good grooves or same with the offenses. Would have to check, but I believe there was a point last season or the season before where the Cubs played like 16 straight Unders

Mets-Phillies have now gone over the last 6 meetings.


Spock....there's a couple good posts in the archives on the weather and humidity. But, I know for a fact if it's hot and humid the ball will carry more than if it cooler and humid. Maybe someone can dig up those old posts.

 

[ndnfan]

vchip.....normally this would probably be an Over bet for me, but not with Mark Hirschbeck behind the plate in this game.

As far as Colorado....have a lot of little angles in this one and think the game has a ton of value. Like I said I expect San Fran to get a few runs, but it's more of a play against Rueter. Colorado simply owns him....which made me wonder if this was just when he faced the rockies in Colorado. IT'S NOT...I went back through his games vs Colorado and 2 of the games were at San Fran where he got hammered by them at home even....so this overweighs my lack of confidence in the Rockies offesive woes on the road.

Another thing with Rueter is he is allowing a .322 and a .304 average to the 1st 2 batters in the lineup (the table setters for Walker and Helton)

Will add a few more angles in this one later, but I think the game should be closer to pickem with the Rockies having a good chance to take this one.

GL

 

[Spock]

Yup .. have gone to the extend of readin the physics behind that with the numbers thrown in. Lots of info on that by the Russian scientists.

Was wonderin to what extent the humidity affects pitchers ..

thanx pete .. off to bed now .. got to wake up and do the laundry early mornni before rest of people in buildin bring their truckload's of clothes and occupy washer/dryer for whole day ..

Good luck
Mayuresh

 

[pwine]

NDNFAN, not to try to point out anything with what you said as I follow you and thank you for your plays every day but I think Hirschbeck was the umpire behind the plate on Friday, mabey the over might be ok with whoever is there now??

Anyway good luck and thanks again for the daily plays

 

[ndnfan]

pwine....you're correct with Hirschbeck as the home ump on Friday.

From the yahoo boxscores:

Friday: UMPIRES: HP--Mark Hirschbeck. 1B--Jim Reynolds. 2B--Adam Dowdy. 3B--Matt Hollowell.


Saturday: UMPIRES: HP--Jim Reynolds. 1B--Mark Hirschbeck. 2B--Matt Hollowell. 3B--Adam Dowdy

Really don't know what's going on here will have to check... Maybe just a mistake in today's boxscore cause according to today's, Hirshbeck will be the Ump, but according to Friday Umps, Adam Dowdy will be behind the plate. If that's the case, I won't touch the OVER either. Dowdy is a Triple A Ump, and although I don't have any history with him, from past experience most of the rookie umps tend to have larger strikezones than the veteran Umps....So it still will be a NO-PLAY on the total in this one.

 

[ndnfan]

A couple more notes on the Colorado game:

Chacon is a very good pitcher during the Day games. Over his career he is a full run lower in day games than night games and this season his ERA is almost 3 runs lower in day games.

It is tricky to cap games that Colorado plays, just for the simple reason half their games are played at Coors which throws a lot of things off as far as numbers go. Chacon has started vs San Fran 7 times including 6 last season. 4 of those games were at Coors field and 3 at Pac Bell in San Fran. So if you take a look at his 3 starts at San Fran, it's pretty impressive. He's only given up a total of 3 earned runs in 3 starts there:

5/26/01......... 7 innings pitched, 1 earned run
7/19/01......... 7 innings pitched, 0 earned runs
9/2/01........... 6 innings pitched, 2 earned runs

The Rockies pen on the road is very respectable with an ERA of 3.31 so maybe the Giants will be contained a bit in this one!!

Think the Rockies bats could wake up with their history vs Rueter.....might be enough in this one. We'll see what happens.

GL

-ndnfan

 

[vchipsliu]

Thanks a lot, Pete
I intended to play the Giants tomorrow, convinced by your write up. There will be a no play for me.

GL

 

[gsp]

Pete, I would guess the ump will be Schrieber or a new crew. If it is Schrieber then Colo is the play. Almost tempted to go with whoever is behind the plate, Good luck

 

[sdf]

Umpires: HP--Matt Hollowell. 1B--Mark Hirschbeck. 2B--Adam Dowdy. 3B--Jim Reynolds.

this was from Thursday...friday MH umped, saturday Dowdy umped...I would look for Reynolds to ump Sunday

 

[slvrblet]

GOOD LUCK

 

[g0d1am]

Good Luck today! I am riding your Mets over play.

 

[Winphoto1]

Good luck Pete. Appreciate your hard work!

 

[ndnfan]

some mojo for my Rockies

:firing: :bigun: kurby

Need 2 outs

 

[trademaster]

Thank You very much ndnfan you are the man...that is why you are the best damn capper!!!

Going to enjoy the day