Pittsburgh +100:
Just thought I'd point out a couple of things in this game....I know it's tough for any team to sweep, but I like the chances here.
Just don't think it's a good situation for Finley in this game. Lot of things look like they won't be in his favor:
First off, I don't think the Home Ump matches up well with him. Finley is not as dominate as he used to be several years ago, and if he doesn't get a favorable Ump, it really affects him. Home Ump is Barrett in this one who has gone 'under' 13 of 20 this season, but don't let those numbers fool ya. He does have a smaller than average strikezone as evidence of his 61.1% strike calling.
If you look at Finley the past 2 starts with Barrett behind the Plate(not going farther back than that,,cause his other 2 starts were in 1998 which is 4 years ago when Finley didn't need the help as much):
10/11/01....He pitched on the road going 4.1 innings, giving up 5 earned runs and walking 2.
5/12/01...He pitched at home going 7 innings not allowing a run on 7 hits, but this game was vs Tampa Bay and at home which leads me to my next thing not favorable for Finley.
Finley is on the road and has always been worse away. His career ERA on the road is over a full run higher than his career ERA at home:
Finley career at home: 105-70 with a 3.33 ERA
Finley career on the road: 86-98 with a 4.45 ERA
This season it's no different ...actually worse:
Finley at home this season: 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA
Finley on the road this season: 1-7 with a 5.05 ERA
So basically we have what I consider a bad Ump matchup, combined with being on the road along with the added pressure of making his 1st start for his new team.....Oh did I mention Pittsburgh's been on a tear since the All-Star Break?
Pittsburgh has been averaging a whopping 7 runs per game since the break including 27 runs the past 2 games vs St Louis and worst of all for Finley....Pittsburgh over the last 10 games is hitting a whopping .342 vs lefties
Doesn't help in my opinion either when Finley has only pitched one game since July 4th and with all the runs Pitts been putting up, the Cardinals pen might be a little shaky.
Also, an interesting note with Josh Fogg is the fact in his first outing vs St Louis this season he got rocked for 7 runs off 8 hits in just 4.1 innings. Then he got to face them again just 5 days later and pitched brilliantly...going 6.1 innings, only giving up 1 run off 4 hits. This shows me he possibly did some homework after that first rocking and it paid off....believe you'll see a solid effort again today.
Well that's the basis for this play. More I guess a play against Finley, but I think the Pirates are just as motivated to sweep this series as the Cards are to avoid the sweep. I'll take the hot Pirate bats in this one.
Good luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
