FLORIDA +135:
Actually like this game enough to lay 2 units on. I think they got the wrong team favored in this one. Some reasoning:
First of all Leiter is on the mound for the Mets which is probably why the Mets are favored in this one, but If you look at Leiter?s career numbers on the road vs at home, you can see he is just mediocre at best on the road.
Leiter AWAY from home is just a career 53-62 with a 4.21 ERA
Leiter at HOME is 72-34 with a 3.11 ERA
Leiter has always been tough on hitters. Over his career he is only allowing a .238 average to batters faced. This season it?s even better?.allowing only a .225 average. However, there are several Marlins that have shown they don?t have any problems with hitting him. These are some of the Marlin?s averages vs Leiter that go back through the 1998 season:
Luis Castillo .357
Cliff Floyd .250
Andy Fox .375
Charles Johnson .375
Derrek Lee .375
Kevin Millar .286
Tim Raines .400
Mike Redmond .579
If you look at these averages and compare them with what he allows overall to batters to hit off him, it?s astonishing!
The Marlins lead the league in strikeouts at least they did through yesterday, but an interesting note as well, is the fact they also lead the league in walks. What this means is they do see a lot of pitches from pitchers which could mean some trouble for Leiter today. The reason I say this is because Leiter faced Florida twice this season and they rocked him 11 runs off 17 hits in just 9.2 innings. Leiter may be a little psyched out facing this team again and if he starts getting behind in the count with that thought in the back of his mind, I believe the Marlins could hammer him again. This season, Leiter?s been serving up some ?batting practice speed grooved? pitches when he?s gotten behind in the count.
Tavarez as you know has really been pitching well, allowing 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 games. The Mets have a low on base % the way it is and if they do get some runners on, don?t be surprised if we get a lot of 2 for 1 double play balls. Tavarez will induce plenty of ground ball outs. Also, he rarely gives up the home run ball?.only 5 all season, which could help especially with the Mets little power surge of late.
Tavarez should give the Mets some fits today and if his past appearances are any indication of this, he should have an easy time of it. The past 3 years, he has made 4 appearances vs them (2 starts) and is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA only giving up 11 hits in 16 innings of work.
Tavarez tends to pitch better at home. Over his career, his ERA is over a full run lower at home than on the road and He has an amazing record at home in his career of 29-12!!
Of course I still have a very big key to this game and that is the running game. As you might already know, Piazza is the worst at throwing out baserunners. Through Tuesdays game, he has only thrown out 8 of 66 base runners all season!!
Well guess what? Not only does Florida lead the league in stolen bases, but they are blowing away the rest of the league. Through Tuesdays games they had 42 more swipes than the next highest team in the league!!
One more note in this one??Florida is still home and doesn?t have to travel. The heat takes it out of ya, and The Mets have to do some traveling as they played in Philly yesterday. Will only give the advantage to the Marlins.
If you look at the overall stats, the Marlins hit better vs righties overall, plus the home/away records?Florida has a winning record and plays well at home, while the Mets have a losing record on the road.
The only negative would probably be the bullpens where I would give the edge to the Mets, however if you look at what they are for the season for both teams, it?s not a real big difference.
Bottom line, it?s one of those rare games where I?m willing to lay 2 units on, and with it being a dog, gonna go the extra on it. Still would have made this a a 1 unit play if the Marlins were favored. I?ll take my chances.
GL :thumb:
