Oakland -130:
I know this probably isn't a popular play for most, but I'm loving this game. The line opened at -140. I can just hear people saying "Seattle shouldn't be that big of dog, especially against a team like Oakland." That's probably one reason the line is being driven down so much, but I appreciate the better line and I for one am jumping all over Oakland in this one for a number of reasons:
First of all, let's talk a little about Barry Zito.
Zito has an unbelievable streak going at home. He's got a 12-game home win streak and hasn't lost in his last 19 regular season home starts
Zito has also been dominate vs Seattle. He's made 3 career starts vs the Mariners and is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA. The Mariners in the probable lineup today have a combined average of just .238 off him (15 hits, 63 at bats) but what is even more key, is the fact that it looks like Ichiro can't hit him. Ichiro is just 1 for 9 off Zito in his career.
Zito seems to really be able to concentrate on getting hitters out when the pressure's on. Check out these awesome situational stats:
Zito with runners on.....hitters batting .169
Zito with runners in scoring position.....hitters batting .159
Zito with runners in scoring pos. and 2 out.....hitters batting .212
Baldwin on the other hand, might have some problems today for a number of reasons:
Baldwin's career ERA on the road is over a run higher than in his home games.
Baldwin has faced the A's once this season and pitched very well in that game, only giving up 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings, but you gotta remember this was back on April 5 which is very early in the baseball season when pitchers usually have a pretty good advantage over the hitters, plus it was a home game for Baldwin.
I don't think Baldwin will have that easy of time with the A's today. Even after that good start last time vs the A's, there are several Oakland players that still have very good career numbers vs Baldwin:
Jermaine Dye .316
Scott Hatteberg .333
Ramon Hernandez .300
David Justice .455
Miguel Tejada .357
Randy Velarde .389
Pretty potent numbers. If you look at the career numbers of the players in the probable lineup today, they are hitting .337 as a team vs Baldwin. Usually when a team has historically hit a pitcher that well over their careers and struggled vs him one start, the 2nd time around the tide gets turned the other way.
Unlike Zito, Baldwin tends to really get rattled in key situations:
Baldwin with runners on....hitters batting .321
Baldwin with runners in scoring postion....hitters batting .348
Baldwin with runners in scoring pos and 2 out....hitt batting .429
Another little angle I think in this game, is the fact the it is a Day game. Oakland has been known to be pretty much a pitchers ballpark, but in Day games, the ball seems to carry very well. This is also another negative for Baldwin, who has always tended to give up his fair share of gopher balls...at least is more prone so than Zito.
The Umpire in this game is scheduled to be Matt Hollowell. Hollowell is a AAA Ump, but fills in for the Majors a lot. Hollowell has only done Major league games for a few years and looks like maybe he gets influenced a bit in favor of the home team. He's been the Home ump in 46 games the past 3 seasons, and the Home team has went 29-17 which comes out to a 63% win Percentage.
Definately have to give the Umpiring edge to Oakland. Zito did, however take a loss to the Yankees in the one time Hollowell was the Ump, but I think you can disregard that game in having any substantial meaning due to the fact they Yankees were home which Hollowell tends to favor plus the fact the Yankees had just seen Zito 5 days prior to that start, so the rough outing was more less expected in my opinion.
I can definately see the Oakland bats waking up today....enough to make this a play in my opinion. Some of the batting stats, such as lefty-righty and a few others are really the only things keeping me from laying 2 units on this one.
Bettors have been pounding Seattle since the line came out, so if you are betting Oakland, you may wanna wait a bit....I decided to grab it at -130.
GL
