Under 9.5 Cincy-Milwaukee:
Looks like this game could be a fairly low scoring game...at least lower than the 9.5 total. The pitching styles of Reitsma and Sheets fit really good with the Home plate umpire Doug Eddings.
Of course, both teams have the Under trend going today:
Cincy games have gone "under" 12 of 18 games on the road this season. Milwaukee games have gone "under" 13 of 19 games at home this season.
Both teams will be facing right-hand starters today and their overall averages vs righties is not that good:
Cincy is hitting .254 overall vs righties (only .234 on the road)
Milwaukee is hitting only .247 overall vs righties(.246 at home)
Chris Reitsma, who's pitching for the Reds, looks like maybe he's matured a bit this season over his rookie season of last year. So far Reitsma has started 7 games and is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA.
This game is a day game of course, and Reitsma is a pitcher that loves to pitch in these day games. This was also true last season as well. So far in his career, he has started 11 day games and and his ERA in these games is a whopping 2.7 runs lower than his starts at night.
Home plate umpire in this game is Doug Eddings, which should be beneficial to both pitchers today as Eddings has one of the larger strikezones around.
Reitsma is a pitcher that changes speeds very effectively and likes to work both sides of the plate, which is a great match with Eddings.
A handicapping angle I use a lot of times is if a pitcher pitches a great game with an Umpire that does not fit his style, and then faces one that does his next outing, it usually means another very solid outing. This is the case with Reitsma, who faced the Cardinals last outing with Randy Marsh as the Ump. In that last game, He still only gave up 1 run on 5 hits and 2 walks in 5.2 innings pitched. So expect him to have good form today as well.
One area that Reitsma seemed to have matured bigtime this year over last is his ability to remain calm and focused with runners on base. Check out the numbers this year:
Reitsma with runners on.....batters hitting .238
Reitsma with runners in scoring position.....batters hitting .216
Reitsma with runners in scoring position and 2 out...hitting .062
Of course, even with all the nice stats and angles with Reitsma, I think the Under is still the better play.
The reds are only batting .234 on the road vs righties and I think Ben Sheets will also have a pretty easy time with this Reds lineup.
Sheets will also benefit with Home Plate Umpire Eddings calling the balls and strikes. There are 7 reds players in the probable lineup today that have career at bats vs Sheets and they are just hitting a combined .200 vs him (5 hits, 20 at bats) with 3 of those being from Barry Larkin.
In case you are wondering the career numbers of the Brewers vs Reitsma, the probable players in the lineup today are hitting just .210 vs him (8 hits, 38 at bats)
Sheets also has matured this season with runners on base:
Sheets with runners on....hitters batting .304
Sheets with runners in scoring position....hitters batting .245
Sheets with runners in scoring postion and 2 out....batting .190
Not the best with runners on, but he really tightens his focus with them in scoring postion.
Sheets did leave the game early last start because of back spasms, but sounds like he's ready to go and if anything will probably be a little fresher due to not as many pitches thrown that game.
Bullpens are solid ....Cincy's pen has a 2.75 ERA for the season and Milwaukee's pen has a 4.18 for the season which is respectable. If you go back the last 10 games, both pens have about the same ERA as what it is for the season.
And also, wanna throw this little tidbit: We all know that those hits pitchers get sometimes are always unexpected and can keep rallies going and destroy those Under plays......Well, I really don't think you have to worry about the pitchers getting any hits in this one. Here's their career batting averages:
Reitsma .086 average
Sheets .069 average
Pitchers are almost always poor hitters, but these 2 are very poor...almost like free outs
Good luck :thumb:
