Thanks everyone....been spinning wheels not getting anywhere lately...hopefully some $$ tonight.
OVER 8.5 CUBS-MARLINS -105:
I'm seeing this total at upwards of 8.5 +112 right now.....almost half-tempted to hit it again, but just decided to stay with the normal money-management plan and stick with the 1 unit on the game.
Really love this over though. I guess you look at the starters and it appears like it could be a pitchers dual, but here's what I'm seeing in this one:
I think both pitchers might get hit pretty hard which would only allow even more runs with the shaky bullpens.
Something I've been paying attention to with Lieber when I seen this early in the season is how bad the guy is piching at NIGHT. I don't know if he thinks about it too much or what, but this guy has been like this his entire career.
Lieber in Day games: 42-26 with a 3.28 ERA
Lieber in Night games: 44-53 with a 4.86 ERA
Unbelievable, and this is holding form again this season:
Lieber in Day games: 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA
Lieber in Night games: 0-3 with a 4.39 ERA
Of course Lieber has always had problems with lefty hitters over his career allowing a career .307 average to them. This season is no different allowing a .303 average to the lefty batters.
Florida doesn't have too many left-handed bats in the lineup, but the first 2 in the lineup (Castillo, Fox) are lefties and this doesn't match up well with Lieber who this season is allowing the first 2 batters in the lineup to hit .327 and .373
Of course the first couple in the batting order are the table setters for some of the big guns in the Florida lineup such as Cliff Floyd and the rest of the lineup that has hit Lieber very well in the past. Check out some of the career averages of the Marlins vs Lieber:
Luis Castillo .400
Cliff Floyd .282
Charles Johnson .400
Derrek Lee .500
Mike Lowell .333
Kevin Millar .462
Preston Wilson .294
These numbers aren't just over a few at-bats either. These 7 players are hitting a combined .365 career off Lieber (50 hits in 137 at bats)
As far as Penny for Florida, he's been on the DL since May 18 with right biceps inflammation and is definately gonna be on a pitch count. He even had to leave a rehap start 2 starts ago after 3 innings when developing one of those "contageous" blisters on his thowing hand! And although he has pitched well in the rehab starts, he still only threw 3 innings and 4.2 innings the past 2 plus it was at Single A, so I don't think you'll see too many innings from Penny tonight, plus he may not have his arm strenth where it normally is.
With that being said, the Cubs have shown an indication that they will not have many problems hitting Penny tonight. The Cubs players do not have very many career at bats vs Penny, but here are some of the career numbers vs him:
Alou .667
Girardi 1.000
Hundley .667
McGriff .429
Sosa .333
Like I said these are numbers with very few at bats, but if they hit him that good in the past, I don't think they'll have a problem now when his arm strength probably isn't 100%.
Of course the bullpens may factor in this one....maybe early for both teams. Nonetheless, both pens have been pathetic of late. Check out the numbers over the last 10 games:
Cubs Pen over the last 10 games has an ERA of 7.27
Florida's Pen over the last 10 games has an ERA of 5.29
Also, the last I looked it was raining, which can only help in the OVER with the bullpens how they are.
I don't hardly ever look at trends when capping, but I did notice some trends that support the Over in this one:
The last 4 meetings have played over.
The over is 6-1 in Penny's last 7 starts.
The Over is 8-2-1 in Cubs last 11 overall.
The over is 10-3 when the wind is blowing at 0-10 MPH at ProPlayer Stadium.
Like I said, I don't really know why the money is pouring in on the Under in this one.....Could be with the Umpire Timmons behind the plate who has a larger strikezone, but there's enough stuff that over power the Ump angle. Looked like a bargain at -105, Like it even more at the plus number. We'll see what happens.
Good luck :thumb:
