Mlb Plays Tuesday July 30

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 1-1 (+0.15 Unit)

SEASON: 207-165 (+30.75 UNITS)
Sides: 147-121 (+16.35 Units)
Totals: 60-44 (+14.4 Units)
_________________________________________

Playing 4 games today:

LA DODGERS -125 (1 UNIT)
ATLANTA -1.5 RUNLINE -120 (1 UNIT)
MINNESOTA -125 (1 UNIT)
TEXAS +210 (1 UNIT)

Good luck in all your plays today!

-ndnfan

 

[Spock]

good luck Pete

Like the Atlanta runline. Atlanta batters have good % against the Milwaukee pitcher if i am not mistaken.

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[taoist]

Pete, you're having an awesome season.... keep up the great work and good luck to you today.


spock, don't vulcans ever sleep? LMAO.

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks taoist.....I'm confident that I'm out of my 2nd major bad run of the season....so time to build the bankroll

Thanks Mayur......Something I rarely do is play a favorite on the runline when it's the home team. I believe this is the first time all season, but I think it's the right situation in this case...if the game goes like I expect, the Braves will cover that...if not I'm saving some juice.

Had most the games today pretty well capped yesterday already and really like the card today, just don't have time to get into everything.....long hours at work!

Best of luck to you today....looks like you had a pretty good day overall yesterday

 

[Spock]

yea yesterday was good in terms of betting .. We shud have got the Over in the Seattle game though.. Win some lose some u keep on fightin ...


now if only I can get my damn code to work @ job. Was there 13 hrs yesterday. Some problem in insertin records in the database ..

Anyways hope to do good at both today

Taoist : Vulcans do sleep .. but not alone. And am havin problems on Earth. Females on Earth get scared of my nice big preety EARS.
Cant afford to have a female Vulcanian sent here. After Sept 11 prices have gone up for long distance travel along with visa problems.

hmm .. mebbe time to cut off the power to my earth Home to hide my ears .

 

[loophole]

nice work of late, ndnfan. tough luck on the seattle over last night. in today's seattle game, i've been considering taking the under in all seattle home games with an afternoon start. it has seemed to me that most of these games play under although i have no stat breakdown and don't know where to find games broken down by start time. i do know that the seattle players have been griping for years over the mid-afternoon shadows at safeco, and the mariners ballclub has commissioned a study of the problem. it's the typical situation that has the pitcher throwing from daylight to shadow that makes the ball difficult to pick up for hitters. just wondering what your take on this angle and if you've given it any consideration.

 

[ndnfan]

loophole.....that's an angle that I'll be honest with ya, I just haven't used a whole lot in my capping just for the reasons much like you stated....with not having the statistical data of day games and night games and other oddball start times. I know I've seen the numbers somewhere, just forget where...but if anyone knows a site, please post and I'll let you know if I find one.

It's something you hear time and time again with the shadows at certain parks and I heard the same thing about SafeCo with how the pitchers have the huge advantage. I just haven't taken the time to get into this angle, but I do plan to! I find more helpful keys and angles every season...stuff that will give you the advantage over the average capper and this is one definately to look into.

Anyways, I still can't believe that Seattle game went Under yesterday.....Would play the Over again if the situations were the same.

Don't really have any opinions on the Total in the Seattle game today. What voided the Under for me is the Performances of Maroth on the road this year......something you'll see a lot of in rookies (mental focus on the road)

Good luck to you today loop.....and if you find any info on this please let me know....I'll do the same.

Time to get some sleep for me....long 12.5 hour night shift tonight.

GL

 

[slvrblet]

good luck today...cash um deep

 

[loophole]

well, looking at the seattle weather today gives me doubt as to whether the sun will be out today or even if the roof will be open, so may not have a play. but i will look into this angle some more, even if i have to go back and go through all of my old rotation sheets for the year.

 

[ndnfan]

MINNESOTA:

Noticed a lot of people on the White Sox today, so before I head into work, I thought I'd throw some of my keys I see in Minny today:

First of all, the really only negative I see in this one is the fact Lohse just faced the ChiSox on July 24th, and pitched great. Then again Burhle just faced the Twins on July 23th at Minny and got hit very hard....I EXPECT MUCH THE SAME.

There's a reason Lohse is a career 4-0 vs the ChiSox and that has a lot to do with the the White Sox being a mostly righty-dominated lineup. If you look at the averages Lohse allows to lefties and righties:

Lohse career vs lefties allowing a .342 average to batters.
Lohse career vs righties AN AMAZING AVERAGE OF JUST .221 to batters.

It's a huge key in this game especially when you throw in the fact, that the White Sox just traded away 2 veteran would-be lefty bats tonight away in Loften and Durham. Even if there replacements bat lefty...they are still inexperienced.

Lohse did give up 4 runs to the Sox on a game back in June, but really was cruising into the 7th. Up until that point, he just allowed 2 solo homers.

Throw in the fact the White Sox after the trades are definately viewing themselves as out of the race...really don't know what their mental status is. Also, even though it looks like the Twins got it wrapped up, look for them to be fired up this series for the knockout blow.


Burhle is starting for the Sox, and even though the Twins hit lefties a little worse than righties, The Twins have had very good success vs Burhle, especially this season.

Burhle is a pitcher that will induce a lot of ground balls which is one reason, I expect him to struggle on the turf at the dome again. The Twins use the speed of the Turf to their big advantage and should be able to capitalize again tonight with his pitching style.

If you look at Burhle's career ERA in Domes, its at 5.31 which is almost 2 full runs higher than his career ERA outdoors.

There's more to it than what I noted, just think people are missing some key angles in this one.

Good luck to all....headin into work :thumb:

-ndnfan

 

[trademaster]

I am with you on the Twins 100%.

GL on all your plays!!!

 

[loophole]

very intuitive and insightful approach to the twins' game. it got me looking at the game again and now i'm a player. now if you could so persuasively tell me why i should play the rangers against a decent lefty with myette on the mound, i would be even happier to have a solid 2-1 dog play for the evening. nice work as always, and thanks for what you do.

btw, i did a loose count on the seattle afternoon totals and came up with 7 out of 11 unders this year. of course, haven't been able to check the weather those days and only looked at this season, so those numbers have dubious value. still, i think it is an angle worth investigating further.