Arizona +130:
I know a lot of people are all over Atlanta in this one, but If you?re wondering how you can bet against the Braves and Maddux, well, I feel this is the only team that can beat him right now and believe Maddux could be a big reason for it.
Gotta feel Arizona?s gonna be highly motivated to win this one, especially after getting to Smoltz in the ninth last night to tie the game, only to lose it in extra innings. Think the players are gonna be ready?especially knowing they will be facing Maddux today.
This Arizona team does not fear Greg Maddux at all. As a matter of fact, Maddux is the one that fears facing the D?Backs! Maddux has now lost 4 straight games to Arizona which includes the playoff game last October. Maddux in his career is just 1-5 with a 5.32 ERA vs Arizona.
Maddux only allows a .241 average to hitters over his entire career, but check out some of the Arizona?s players averages vs him that go back through the 1998 season:
Councell .348
Dellucci .333
Finley .304
Gonzalez .348
Grace .259
Miller .400
Spivey 1.000
Would not be surprised to see Maddux get rattled a bit if the Diamond Backs start to get any kind of rally going today. Maddux is basically psyched out by this team in my opinion.
Helling gets the start for Arizona today. Helling is fresh off the DL in which he had that ankle sprain. He made one rehab start in Triple-A Tucson and pitched well, only giving up one run while throwing 88 pitches.
Helling started vs the Braves once in his career (this season) and went 6 innings, giving up 2 runs off 7 hits. So he did pitch pretty well in his only start vs them. Helling may be on a pitch count, but I feel it will only help keep the Atlanta hitters off balance?especially with the solid Arizona bullpen, if Helling only goes 5 or 6 innings tonight.
Home Ump in this one is Angel Hernandez. With Hernandez as the Home Ump, the Home team has won 15 of 22 games this season and if you go back his last 70 games, the home team has won 43 which comes out to a 62.8 win% for the home team.
Both pitchers matchup pretty well with Hernandez, although Maddux had some trouble his last couple with him as Ump:
8/11/99???5.1 IP, 11 Hits, 5 earned runs, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts
4/29/99???8 IP, 10 Hits, 1 earned run, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
9/13/98??..6 IP, 1 hit, 0 earned runs, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts
Fits pretty good with Hernandez, although the high number of hits is alarming the last 2 games.
Helling fits just as well with Hernandez. If you look at the Covers Site, you?ll notice it looks like he gave up a lot of runs in his only start when Hernandez was the Ump, but this is not the case?..Helling pitched superb that day(the bullpen gave up the runs):
6/27/02??7 IP, 3 Hits, 1 earned run, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts
So looks like Helling will do just fine with Hernandez calling the balls and strikes.
Stat wise on runs?..Arizona at home vs righties is averaging 5.3 runs per game, while Atlanta on the road vs righties is at 4.0 runs per game.
Bottom line, I think Zona wins this one for more reasons than just the numbers, and I like the dog price. Public will be on Atlanta, so it?s possible you can wait for a better line, I?m gonna be out all day, so I?m grabbing it now at +130 (Opened a lot of places at Atlanta ?130, Arizona +120)
Good Luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
