Thanks and GL to everyone
MONTREAL -180:
At first when I looked at this game I thought Montreal looked like they were way overpriced in this game. Even though Montreal is playing the Royals, I was wondering why the books would set the line this high? Well, after looking into this one, not only DON?T I think it?s overpriced, but rather way undervalued. I?m jumping all over this one for a number of reasons.
First of all both teams are pretty much jeckyl and hyde at home and on the road:
Montreal at home is 23-11 And is averaging 5.3 runs per game vs righties at home!
Kansas City on the road is just 11-24 and averaging just 3.9 runs per game vs righties on the road.
Montreal is a team playing with a lot of confidence of late, winning 5 straight games including a nice little come from behind victory yesterday to pull them within 4.5 games of front running Atlanta. This should keep the Expos very motivated and focused in this game.
Over the past 4 games, Montreal is averaging a whopping 7 runs per game while the Royals have been slumping offensively averaging only 2 runs per game over the last 4.
Now let?s get to some of the bigger keys to the game:
Tomokazu Ohka is pitching for the Expos today and is putting together just an amazing season thus far. Ohka has made 13 starts this season and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of those 13 starts!! Lately he has been unbelievable, giving up a combined total of just 6 earned runs in his last 5 starts.
The only real flaw with Ohka this season has been the long ball in which he has given up 8 homers this season in 80.1 innings. This still is a pretty good ratio and when you consider the fact that Kansas City is dead last in the league in home runs, I don?t think it?ll be much of a factor at all.
Tomo Ohka has also been brilliant when the pressure is on. Check out these situational numbers:
Ohka with runners on?..batters hitting .231
Ohka with runners in scoring position?..batters hitting just .203
Ohka with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?batters hitting just .080
Pretty impressive situational, but now to the biggest key with Ohka in this game:
Ohka is allowing a .308 average to right-handed batters this season. That of course is not too impressive. However, he is only allowing a .185 average to left-handed batters this season. This is impressive and this will be very key in this game. There will likely be 4 to 5 batters from the left side today. Which of course means Ohka will only have to face 3 or 4 legitimate righty batters today. I say legitimate, because I don?t consider the pitcher Suzuki to be a threat. Suzuki in his career is only hitting .043 and only has 1 career hit. Ohka on the other hand is not the best hitter either, but he is hitting .167 over his career.
Mac Suzuki is the pitcher for Kansas City and will be making his first start of the season. In 12.1 innings of relief this year, he has allowed a alarming 13 earned runs while giving up 13 hits and walking 12.
Suzuki is also a pitcher that is prone to the long ball and is a pitcher that has had a tendency to walk a lot of batters over his career. In his career, he has walked 260 in 457 innings which comes out to over 5 walks per nine innings pitched!! Montreal is a team that will draw more walks than most teams so this is key in this game as well.
Suzuki as I said has only worked out of relief this season, so there is a good chance he?ll be on a pitch count in this one. This means we?ll more than likely see a lot more of the KC bullpen than Montreal?s. This could be a huge advantage in this one as the Royals pen has been disastrous this season:
KC bullpen has a 5.43 ERA for the season, and over the last 10 games it?s 7.75!
Montreal?s pen has a 4.13 ERA for the season and over the last 10 is 3.40
One more note on Suzuki and Ohka: Suzuki in 13 career starts in Domes has an ERA of 6.32 while Ohka in 18 career starts in a dome has an ERA of 3.65
Home plate umpire in this game is Mark Carlson. Carlson is a big time ?Homer? Ump. Of his last 58 games behind the plate, the home team is 38-20 (65%) This is a huge advantage to Montreal, plus you throw in the fact that his zone is a little tighter than average, you will see a big advantage to Ohka over Suzuki in this one. Ohka has very good control, while Suzuki doesn?t and if this ?home advantage? comes into play, you may see a ton of walks or a lot of hitters count pitches for Montreal to take advantage of.
Bottom line, I think there is a ton of value even in this steep of a line. I don?t usually play this heavy of favorite unless the game is very lopsided and this one is. I?ll take my chances and lay the chalk here.
GL :thumb:
-ndnfan
