Mlb Plays Wednesday May 22

ndnfan

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Yesterday: 0-4 (-6.15 Units) :mad: :mad: The worst day of the season by far, The O-fer days will happen occasionally, just gotta forget it and move on to the next day.

SEASON: 103-76 (+19.05 UNITS)
Sides: 76-63 (+3.85 Units)
Totals: 27-13 (+15.2 Units)
_______________________________________________

Playing 5 games today:

UNDER 8 PHILLY -130 (1 UNIT)
CINCINNATI -135 (1 UNIT)
CHICAGO CUBS -140 (1 UNIT)
SAN DIEGO +120 (1 UNIT)
SEATTLE -1.5 RUNLINE -140 (1 UNIT)


Good luck in all your plays today.

-ndnfan
 

ndnfan

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Cubs -140:

I don't normally play pitchers making their major league debut, but today is an exception. I'll tell you why.

Mark Prior, in case you haven't heard all the hype, is definately a star of the future.....this guy is definately the real deal and I believe if anyone's gonna make their major league debut, todays game is setting up as almost the perfect situation for his debut.

Prior is getting to make his debut at Wrigley, so will have plenty of support from the fans and of course is going against one of the worst offenses in baseball (Pittsburgh) and is also getting the benefits of a Home Plate Umpire that should help as well:

The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 15 on the road and are batting just .230 vs righties for the season and over the last 10 games vs righties, they are hitting just .204

The Cubbies aren't much better, but they have come from behind 2 of the last 3 games, and you gotta feel this might be giving this team some much need confidence.....also gotta feel, they're gonna be focused on this game especially with it being Prior's 1st start.

Prior, as I said earlier, should feel pretty comfortable in front of the large Wrigley crowd and should settle in fairly quickly.

Home plate umpire in this game is Tim Welke. Welke should also help the young Prior. Welke has been known to favor the home teams over the years. If you go back all the way through the 1998 season, you'll see that the home team has gone 83-58 with him as the home umpire.

So as you can see even with all the unknowns, the situations are setting up very well for him.

Dave Williams however may not fair as well in this one.

Williams seems to not like pitching at night. His ERA at night is over 2.5 runs higher than in day games.

Williams also tends to have some control problems. So far this season, he has walked 20 batters in just 33.1 innings and their is a very good possibility of him getting squeezed a bit today with Welke behind the plate.

A big angle in this game that plays right along with the Ump info today is the fact that Williams has made 7 starts this season and you can make a good case that the Umpire was very favorable for him in all the starts!!! This includes Umpires with very large strikezones, "Homer" umps when he was pitching at home, etc. Also, an intersting note is in the last game, Williams walked 5 batters with John Hirschbeck behind the plate which is very hard to do. This game was on the road, but still even with Hirschbecks home favoritism, he still supplies a large zone anyway you look at it.

Of course there are always unknowns and this is the Cubbies, but I definately think it's a worth a shot at making this a normal play.


TerryRay posted some good info. on Prior. I will post some below as well.

Good luck.
 

ndnfan

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Prior to start Wednesday
Big crowd expected for phenom's debut
By Carrie Muskat / MLB.com




Mark Prior has refused to allow the hype over his debut affect his approach on the mound. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)



CHICAGO -- Mark Prior has tried not to read all the stories hyping when he would make it to the big leagues.
"Obviously, people have been talking about it, things have been said," Prior said Tuesday. "I didn't really pay attention to it. I didn't want to know until it was time. I wanted to be called up when it was right."

It's time.

The 21-year-old remarkably poised right-hander will make his big league debut Wednesday night for the Cubs against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Cubs' 2001 No. 1 draft (No. 2 overall) pick sprinted through the minor leagues, compiling a 5-2 record in nine games, beginning at Double-A West Tenn and finishing at Triple-A Iowa. He struck out 79 over 51 innings. To put it in perspective, Cubs starter Kerry Wood, a No. 1 draft pick in 1995, spent three years in the minor leagues before his debut in 1998. He totaled 57 2/3 innings just at Triple-A Iowa in 1997.






Mark Prior / P

Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220
Bats/Throws: R/R

More info:
Player page
cubs.com

2001 First-Year Player Draft







"He's probably gone through more than what I've gone through," Wood said when asked to compare the two. "He's been dealing with this since college. He's got a great head on his shoulders and he knows what his job is and he knows what he has to do."

A standout at USC where he was 15-1 his senior year, Prior was greeted in the Cubs clubhouse with some good-natured ribbing. Someone had taped the back page of the Chicago Sun-Times onto the wall. The headline on the full-page photo of Prior was "The Can't Miss Kid."

"It's fun. The game is meant to be fun," Prior said. "If I came in and didn't have fun, I'd think something would be wrong.

"These guys are a great bunch of guys," he said. "They're guys I've looked up to growing up, watching Sammy (Sosa) and Fred (McGriff) and Moises (Alou) play and watching Woody the latter part of high school and college. Finally meeting them and kind of getting their respect, and not so much being one of their peers but now being one of their teammates, one of the guys to go to battle with them, just the fact that they respect me right away has meant a lot to me."

Prior's locker was once again next to Jon Lieber, a veteran who was Prior's unofficial mentor in Spring Training.

On Tuesday, Prior, who is not officially on the roster, stretched with the other pitchers and then stood in left field to shag during batting practice. Television and still cameras followed his every move.

"He was going to be faced with (expectations) regardless just because of what he's done in his college career," Cubs manager Don Baylor said.

"I don't really pay attention to (the hype)," Prior said. "I try to go out and do my job. My goal every time I go out is give six to eight innings of solid work. If I can go nine, great.

"For me it's try to go out and improve every outing, try to put up zeros or win the inning," he said. "That's what I was taught at a young age. If you win every inning, you're going to win the game. That's the way I approach every game."

It would've been nice if the Cubs were over .500 and not under.

"I wish the circumstances were a little bit different," Prior said. "On paper we've got a great team. We've been playing with some injuries. You wish it was a different situation and you wish they were winning more.

"I'm not here to try to do anything special," he said. "I got called up to do one thing and that's just do what I've been doing. I'm just going to go out and do what I can and give them some good innings and give them a chance to win at the end."

The right-hander worked out at Wrigley Field on Monday's off day to get used to the mound.

"He's going to have enough butterflies roaming around (Wednesday)," Baylor said. "I don't think it'll hit him until (Wednesday)."

His plans for Tuesday night included a little dinner, some shopping, picking up his girlfriend at the airport and then get some sleep. And Wednesday?

"Usual day. I'll sleep in, get some breakfast, get some lunch and come to the park," Prior said. "I'm not going to change what I've done and I'm just going to go out and have some fun.

"Two things can happen -- I can either do well or I'm going to do bad," he said. "Either, or, I'm going to come back the next day. They called me up to do a job, and hopefully I can get it done."

"I'm pretty sure he's probably had (pressure) before at a different level," Baylor said. "All the real young good ones that I've been around and played against, (like Roger Clemens), he felt that was his responsibility. If he was the No. 1 guy, that's what he wanted to live up to, being the No. 1 guy."

Wood doesn't think Prior will have any problems.

"He's not going to come in and we're going to roll off 15 (wins) in a row just because he showed up," Wood said.

"To say this is a high pressure game, I don't think so," Prior said. "But the stakes are a little bit higher. I'm just going to go out there and do what I do."
 

ndnfan

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2001 Highlights:
Mark earned numerous all-America selections and won seven national Player of the Year awards after going 15-1 with 6 complete games, 3 shutouts and a 1.69 ERA in 20 games (18 starts) during his junior year at USC ... led the Trojans to a College World Series berth. * won the Golden Spikes Award -- the baseball equivalent of the Heisman Trophy -- which goes to the country's most outstanding amateur baseball player. * also won the 14th annual Rotary Smith Award and the Dick Howser Trophy (National Collegiate Baseball Writers' Association) ... was named the Player of the Year by the American Baseball Coaches' Association, Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball and The Sporting News. * held opponents to a .201 average (100-497), fanning 202 batters in 138.2 innings while allowing 18 walks and 5 homers. * set both the school and Pac-10 Conference records for strikeouts in a season, surpassing the 182 recorded by Seth Etherton in 1998. * recorded 10 or more strikeouts in 13 starts — including a 15-strikeout affair and four 14-strikeout contests. * was named the Pac-10 Conference Pitcher of the Year, leading the conference during the regular season in ERA, opponents' batting average, strikeouts and wins ... nationally, he ranked among the Division I Top 5 in ERA, strikeouts per 9.0 innings (13.1) and victories. * was named Pac-10 Pitcher of the Week five times and was a National Pitcher of the Week selection twice.

Personal:
Mark, who was selected by the Cubs with the 2nd overall pick in the 2001 draft, will be making his professional debut in 2002 ... he previously was selected as a 1st-round "sandwich pick" by the New York Yankees in 1998 (43rd overall selection). * is a 2002 finalist for the 72nd annual Amateur Athletic Union (AAU) James E. Sullivan Memorial Award, which recognizes the top amateur athlete in the nation. * was a high school all-America selection at University High School in San Diego, graduating in 1998 after going 10-5 with a 0.93 ERA as a senior ... along with earning all-state honors, he was named the San Diego County Player of the Year by the San Diego Union-Tribune. * majored in business at the University of Southern California, where he pitched for two seasons. * began his collegiate career at Vanderbilt University ... after one year (in which he earned Baseball America freshman all-America second-team honors), he transferred to USC. * as a sophomore in 2000, he earned Pac-10 honorable mention honors after going 10-7 with a 3.56 ERA in 23 games (19 starts) for the Trojans. * pitched for the USA National Team in both 1999 and 2000 — including victories over Japan and Cuba during the Haarlem (The Netherlands) Tournament during the summer of 2000 ... in 1999, he was selected to the Baseball America second-team all-summer team. * his father, Jerry, played football at Vanderbilt ... his sister, Millie, played tennis at the University of San Diego.
 

ndnfan

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Seattle runline:

Not much time for writeups today, but as far as the Seattle game goes today, I'm doing something I rarely ever do, and usually don't suggest doing and that's playing the favorite on the runline when that team is a Home. Not gonna go into detail, but will say that Home plate ump Derryl Cousins is a major factor in me playing this one. Definately a solid runline play today IMO. If you're like me and not willing to lay the high moneyline....jump on this one.

GL all!
 

loophole

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enjoy your writeups, ndnfan. if you will, let me play devil's advocate with your cubbies pick, since i have been looking at playing pit tonight.

prior may be the second coming of sandy koufax, but he is still a 21 yr old rookie making his major league debue for a team that is 15-29 overall, 7-15 at home, and losers of 9 of their last 11. they're hitting .216 at home overall and .167 against lefties. williams is nothing more than an average letfy, but he has a 3.23 era over 29.1 innings vs the cubs, and over 5 starts against the cubs the last 2 years he's averaged less that 10 m/o/b per 9 innings. and what if young prior falters in his first major league start amid all the hoopla and the pitiful cubs bullpen has to go lots of innings? can't see how all this adds up to laying amost 3/2 on chicago.


as for tim welke, since he enlarged his strike zone last year home teams in his games are only 25-21, -640 on the m/l. i'm generally skeptical of the significance of home/away statistical bias of umps and tend to view most of the variance as randomness.


just my two cents. you've had great success this year and obviously know your stuff. just a contrasting opinion as food for thought. good luck with your plays today.
 

ndnfan

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loophole.....Was curious on others views on this Cubs game, and I debated myself if it was worth it at the -140 moneyline especially with how the Cubs team has been all season.

I definately value your opinion and I have to totally agree with you on how meaningful the home/away bias of Umps are. I also, feel this is coincidental and just plain randomness more times than not, but I also feel if it's at a high percentage that it DOES carry some weight. Also, I feel if the Ump is biased, whether it be for the home team or away team, don't you feel that you would get a better read if you go back several seasons?? I mean in an Ump such as Tim Welke, you state that last season, he was only 5 games over .500 and down money for the home team....true it's not that good, but I don't feel that the numbers are accurate unless you go back longer. This would compare to an Ump with a very large strikezone last year, say maybe Jim Joyce, who had a 2.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio plus called called an average of 64.4% strikes which is considered very high, yet the over/under record was 18 overs and only 16 unders. I just feel that someone such as Welke who when is umping, the home team has won at a 69% clip over the last several season does have some impact on how he calls the game, even though last season or even the past couple seasons the numbers aren't at a huge %.

Curious if you have any more insight or opinions on this. Also, gsp, if you read this would love to hear your opinions.

Again loop appreciate your opinion, I love seeing how others feel on such stuff as this.

I'm gonna stick with the Cubs, even with the Cubs not hitting....the Pirates aren't either. Bullpen adv. is like you said with the Pirates as well, but I just feel it's the right situations for the game. Especially if you go back and look at all the previous Umps in Dave Williams games this year.....thought he matchuped well with most yet he did not perform like I expected. Think possible the Cubs could get some runs today.

Again thanks for your views, always check your posts...if you have anything to add about this, please post.....I'll be back on late afternoon.
 

ddubs

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FWIW, all Chicago sports radio and TV have been talking about Prior all day long. and "Not since Michael Jordan's 1995 return from retirement and a failed attempt to play baseball has the hype over a debut in Chicago eclipsed the fervor of Prior's scheduled start Wednesday night" -- Chicago tribune. The Cubs have received more than 150 requests for media credentials for Wednesday's game. On a normal Wednesday night game in May, the number is around 50. Naturally, the Cubs also expect a sellout crowd.

Also interestingly enough, a poll conducted by ChicagoSports.com on how Prior will fair in his big league debut......41.8% were on "The rookie is solid but gets the loss as the Cubs can?t score", and this is a poll mostly answered by Cubbie fans.

Prior will have the advantage of facing the anemic Pitt offensive attack, amongst the bottom in BA in the league, and he should have success over them if he overcomes his nerves. The question still comes down to whether the Cubbies offense will put up the runs because of this hype. Will this be a spark plug for the offense to start clicking?? Not sure about that.

Perhaps Under10.5 is a much more attractive play. That's an aweful high number for a Wrigley night game, even if the wind is blowing out to left according to the weather forecast.
 

gsp

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I pay very little attention to home and away ump stats unless it coinsides with other info. For instance with Welke, last 5, home team is 4-1. Previous 5, road team is 5-0. I do pay attention to this. Pit is 1 and 5. The one came as a fav at home. Their run ave per loss is 3'. Chi is 3-1. Two of the three as road dogs. Ave win margin, 3 runs. I also have this game going over today.

Watch yourself on that Phil total. Ripley is behind the plate and he has gone over 4 out of the last 5. I show a strong chance that he will again tonight. After looking at everything else I decided it was a no play. Good luck tonight.
 

nighthorse

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gsp said:
I do pay attention to this. Pit is 1 and 5. The one came as a fav at home. Their run ave per loss is 3'. Chi is 3-1. Two of the three as road dogs. Ave win margin, 3 runs. I also have this game going over today.

Are you saying that Welke might have a conscious or subconscious bias against Pittsburgh and/or for Chicago?

Do umps do that? I probably sound naive, but I have no idea.


I got the over at 8 before the new weather forecast. :D
 

gsp

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ndn, I hate to take up your thread like this to answer nighthorse but it might save us some money sometime. Nighthorse, the other day I and most Madjacker's were on Stl with Morris pitching. I knew it wasn't a play but it sure looked good and everyone here agreed. Here was what bothered me about the game. Morris was 0-2 against the ump. He's now 0-3 and my pocketbook is lighter. Most pitchers are head cases and if they et in their head that they can't pitch against a certain ump, look out.
 

ndnfan

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gsp....no problem. I agree..Checking the pitchers previous history with an Ump is definately something that should be looked at....a very valuable angle.

Also, don't know if you'd agree, but I've found that sometimes if an ump that has a very good win record for a certain team, that sometimes there is a very good chance that he is biased in favor of them for a reason....a couple good examples: Mike Winters when umping games for San Diego, I feels shows some favortism....reason being is he's from the area and also atteded San Diego St. Universtity amongst other connections in the area. Also another example would be Brian Gorman with the New York teams.

Going back to the home/away favoritism.....most times is just coinidence or randomness in who wins when a certain Ump is behind the plate, but there are definately some out there that definately squeeze the visiting pitcher more than the home pitcher...perfect case would be Phil Cuzzi. If you don't believe me
I suggest you watch previous games or future games with him as the Ump......at times, you will see completely different strikezones for the home and road pitchers.

Just my views.
 

gsp

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I totally agree. I can tell you of at least a dozen others that show favoritism of some kind. It gets hard to play a game if you don't know the ump. The guys with the wide strike zone can pull it in easier than the narrow ones can get large. Watch out for the ones with hugh strike zones. They will go on an extended over run before the season is done.
 

nighthorse

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Sorry to bog down the thread, but I have one more question.

I'm trippin.........I never gave more than a cursory glance at ump stats. I get the stats at covers. Many times they don't have umps listed even in the early afternoon. Is there any other place to get reliable and timely ump listing?

Thanks for all the great info, guys.
 

ndnfan

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nighthorse....on the 1st game of the series, the Umpire information is not released till approximately 10-15 min before game time...pretty much for security and gambling reasons. For the rest of the series, almost always, the Umping crew will rotate for the rest of the series...1st base to home, 2nd to first, etc. A lot of times cover's will make mistakes, I usually just jot down the Umps for the next day or 2 games from the boxscores after the 1st game has started. Also helps to start building your own database and just take notes on the Umps and their tendencies.

Hope this helps.
 

loophole

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nightnorse, for the games where you can't determine the ump from the rotation the night before, you can go to the scoreboards link and click on the yahoo scoreboard. about 10-15 minutes before gametime in the captions under the team listings you'll see a category come up titled "pitch by pitch." click on it and it will give you the gametime stats, including the ump assignments for the night. that's the earliest place to get them that i know of.
 

Tito

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Well for what it's worth, I was 0-4 in baseball, and 0-2 in the NBA last night. Sometimes you just call it an early night and go to bed. There's always tomorrow.

Good luck tonight.
 

IE

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I put up a new ump data site link on the resource page, called
Intersports Ump Data in the baseball link table.

resource page

might help.

IE
 
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