Mlb Plays Wednesday September 11

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 1-2 (-1 Unit)

SEASON: 259-221 (+24.5 UNITS)
Sides: 180-163 (+4.5 Units)
Totals: 79-58 (+20 Units)
_________________________________________

Playing one total today:

UNDER 10 HOUSTON -120 (1 UNIT)

Basically the only game I think is worth playing today. The rest of the slate just seems way too inflated on the winners and not willing to lay the heavy chalk on the ones I do like.

Good luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[bjfinste]

Ndnfan,

Respect your opinion and I really like the under 9 in the Reds game. Ump info on covers seems to point that way and neither team seems to be swinging the bats well. Just wondering you opinion on this... Brandon

 

[ndnfan]

bjfinste.....well, to tell you the truth, what I came up with on that game was a slight lean towards the Under, but a strong lean towards Pittsburgh.

Neither one's a play for me, but Benson's been pitching well and with all the injuries to Cincy right now, was close to playing Pitt. I guess the only thing that kept me off that Benson's 6.21 ERA in Day games this season plus his one game with Demuth behind the plate he struggled bigtime even though that was 3 season's ago.

The thing that scared me off the Under enough was what I just mentioned with Benson above, plus the fact some key players have really hit Dessens well in the past.

Hope this helps some Think you're on the right side if you're playing the Under though.

GL whatever you decide!

Will add my reasoning on my Under Houston play in a bit.

 

[ndnfan]

UNDER 10 HOUSTON:

This game was fairly simple to handicap. It's something I always look for when teams are playing in hitters parks. Such is the case in Houston today.

Of course the totals always tend to be a bit higher in hitters parks such as Coors field or Houston, etc., so what I like to look for is a good combination of situations. Today is a prime example.

We have a couple of pitchers today who are very good ground ball pitchers and NOT fly ball pitchers, so this pretty much takes the small ballpark out of the "quick runs via the home run" picture. This in itself gives you value on Unders in these situations.

If you take a look at the 2 starters today in Aaron Cook and Kirk Saarloos, you'll see some interesting stuff:

Cook has only allowed 1 home run in his 3 starts and only 2 total home runs in all his appearances (25.2 innings) Also, Cook has induced an unbelievable 8 double plays in just those 25.2 innings

Saarloos is much like Cook. The guy just doesn't allow homers when his mechanics are sound...which they look to be now. Saarloos only gave up 2 home runs in 99.1 innings in the minors this season and even though he did allow 10 home runs in the Majors this season, most of those were from a flaw in his mechanics. Everything seems to be working fine now as he discovered his problem on tape a few starts ago. Saarloos has not allowed a home run in 4 straight starts now! Saarloos also has induced 13 double plays in 13 starts this season

Also neither team has seen the opposing pitcher yet which will be an advantage to the pitchers early in the game.

Of course along with the 2 ground ball pitchers today, we have a very good 'UNDER' Ump in Mark Hirschbeck. Hirschbeck has now gone Under in 21 of his 28 games this season! The games that he's the Home Ump are only averaging 6.58 runs per game as well.

If you take a look at what the 2 teams average:

Colorado is averaging just 3.2 runs per game vs righties on the road this season, while Houston is averaging 4.8 runs per game vs righties at home this season. This only adds up to 8 so you can see the value here as well.

Bottom line, just way too many situational things in this game pointing to the Under.....including the hidden situational stuff such as the pitching styles which usually doesn't get figured into the Vegas totals line too much......DEFINATELY WORTH A SHOT HERE.

Good Luck :thumb:

-ndnfan

 

[TJBELL]

Good luck today Pete!!!!

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck ndnfan. I took it too.

 

[Theboundbook]

Good luck to you.

 

[THE HITMAN]

NDNFAN..........I thought the same thing about the big chalk...........actually, I thought it seemed to start to trickle in a couple of weeks ago, the way I peek at things, anyway. Hence, I have had fewer plays lately. And, have been around 50 %. I guess it's that time of year..........should start to be gettin a bit cooler in some parks, soon, too, see if it will effect the total lines any.
GL..............THE HITMAN

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks guys.

Hitman....agree with ya. Actually, Seems to me like the favorites were inflated most of the season this year, but especially of late. I can't remember a season like this. I've played more Dogs this season than ever before but have had less success this season than in past ones......Maybe it is because of the inflation of prices which I won't lay the heavy juice....not really sure. But like many great ones say out there...Just because the fav is overpriced, you don't wanna get in the habit of playing the dog just for that reason. If you don't think the team will win, just stay away.

GL to everyone today.

 

[THE HITMAN]

NDFAN...............right. Getting A dog at +300 that should be only +200, doesn't do you a lick of good if it's a loser.........of course, would rather have a winner at -140 that should be +105, but would rather have neither, would rather play lines that just "look" right to me. .......Hit Em........THE HITMAN