Mlb Plays Wednesday September 4

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 1-0 (+1.3 Units)

SEASON: 251-211 (+27.85 UNITS)
Sides: 175-156 (+7.45 Units)
Totals: 76-55 (+20.4 Units)
___________________________________________

Playing 4 games today:

BOSTON -115 (1 UNIT)
UNDER 8.5 BOSTON -120 (1 UNIT)
OVER 8.5 METS +100 (1 UNIT)
DETROIT -140 (1 UNIT)

Good luck in all your plays today

-ndnfan

 

[mack the knife]

hiya,

was wondering why you are going w/bosox today. I am watching the game, not laying money on it, but my first impression was to take the yanks at home as a dog. Basically, two rules of thumb guide my fringe plays: play against the cubs and col as raod favs, and play on yanks and A's as home dogs...

no data to support yanks as dog play, just intuition. look forward to any thoughts you might share. Also, I could be wrong, but first impression I had about the total is that lowe's games go over somehow, someway.

good luck, as I'm sure you are on the right side on these...

mack

 

[ndnfan]

Mack.....Not much time here. But really quickly will point out a couple things I'm weighing in on this Boston-yanks game:

Pettitte was scratched from his last start on Fri with a stiff back, but being hurt or not, the current Boston players have hit him well in the past....a few being:

Agbayani .455
Floyd .333
Garciaparra .385
Henderson .462
Ramirez .355
Varitek .455

These are numbers through 1998

I'm also expecting Lowe to pitch another good game vs the Yanks today.

Lowe's made 3 starts vs the Yanks this season and is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA. But the big key here is the fact that Lowe hasn't allowed any home runs to the Yanks in these 3 starts which is the main source of their runs this season.

Lowe, last I checked had the best ground ball to fly ball ratio in the majors and I wouldn't be surprised to see another solid performance with a lot of ground ball outs again...which is key vs a home run hitting team like the Yanks.

Lowe is also tough in pressure situations:

Lowe with runners on....allowing just a .233 average
Lowe with runners in scoring position...allowing .239 average
Lowe with runners in scor pos and 2 out....allowing .194 average

Iassogna is the Home Ump and even though he's gone over 10 straight, the guy still has a large strike % call and has been a very good under ump in the past. Just can't see this streak continuing...it's defying all odds. Only real worry on this Under is Pettitte, but, he is also a big game pitcher that also pitches well at home, so I expect a decent game from him. If his back is bothering him, Weaver should be ready.

These are the things weighing most in my decision. Bascically think Boston will get enough to win this one and I expect Lowe to be very sharp again.....we will see.

Good luck today MTK!

-ndnfan

 

[mack the knife]

thanks...and yes Lowe is great at generating grounders. Seems more like a a bos pick than an under, but either way, hope the best happens for ya...

MTK