Playing just the one today:
OAKLAND -210 (1 UNIT)
My reasoning will follow in a bit.
Good luck to all today!
-ndnfan
OAKLAND -210 (1 UNIT)
My reasoning will follow in a bit.
Good luck to all today!
-ndnfan
MLB Post Season Plays Tuesday Oct 1
- Thread starter ndnfan
- Start date
OAKLAND ?210:
Well, post season is upon us. After capping the games, it looks to me like Oakland is about as solid of a play as it gets today. The line may be a bit steep, but it is justifiably so in this game today and will share some of my thinking on this one.
Post season = pressure, pressure and more pressure on the players. Everything gets intensified as far as players emotions and their reactions, along with many more factors in the games. This figures to give a huge advantage to Oakland, especially in this first game.
First off lets take a look at the records of the two clubs in the regular season:
Minnesota is a team built for the turf. They lead the league in doubles and and ranked right up there in triples as well. This is much reason for their 54-27 home record. However, on the road this season, the Twins were just a .500 ballclub having just a 40-40 record away from the Dome which should give the advantage to Oakland in this one who like Minny had a 54-27 record at Home this season
This game features a couple of quality pitchers, but the big edge will go to Hudson here who I feel is a pitcher that performs much better in pressure situations and if you look at his numbers this past season it shows:
Hudson allowed a .263 overall average to hitters this season, but when the pressure mounted he was even better:
Hudson with runners on?..only allowed a .248 average to hitters
Hudson with runners in scoring postion?.only allowed a .230 average to hitters
Hudson with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?..only allowed a .184 average to hitters!
Now when you compare this to Brad Radke who?s getting the start for the Twins today, you see a big difference:
Radke allowed a .272 overall average to hitters this season, but when he was in pressure situations, he did not fair well at all?.check out the pressure numbers:
Radke with runners on?..allowed a .339 average to hitters
Radke with runners in scoring position?.allowed a .365 average to hitters
Radke with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?..allowed a .375 average to hitters
Speaking of pressure, you always gotta look at pitchers Home/Away ERA?s in which case you?ll see Radke owns a career ERA on the Road of 4.68 which is quite a bit higher than his career Home ERA of 3.97. This season, he?s been even worse. Radke at home this season was 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA, However, on the Road this season, Radke was just 4-4 with a whopping 6.63 ERA
When you look at these kinda of numbers over both pitchers careers, the numbers hold the same trend, although this season they are much worse with Radke?Advantage Oakland
Hudson also has had very good career numbers vs Minnesota. He is a career 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in 8 career starts vs them and has also been one of the hottest pitchers in the Majors to end the regular season. Hudson has not lost a decision in his last 12 starts and is a perfect 8-0 with a 2.14 ERA in those starts!!!!
Radke vs Oakland in his career has had some troubles. He is just 6-10 in his career vs them, however he does have a respectable ERA of 3.80 against them.
The game is being played in the afternoon today which I believe favors Oakland and Hudson as well. Radke in Day games this season had a 6.30 ERA while Hudson in day games this season had a 2.10 ERA!
Another factor that may play a role in this ?Day Game? is the fact that the ball does seem to carry a bit better at Oakland during the day games and this means that the edge would go to Hudson who his more of the ground ball pitcher. Hudson has induced an amazing 35 double play balls in just 34 games this season and we all know how big of rally killers the double plays balls are Radke has been know to give up his share of home run balls which could spell trouble vs a good power hitting team like Oakland during the afternoon.
Back on the ?pressure situations? factors?.if Minny does have the lead and they end up bringing in ?EVERDAY? Eddy Guardado, the Oakland A?s still will fight to the end. Guardado only had 6 blown saves all year, but the problem with that is that 2 of them were vs Oakland and this could be in the back of his mind if the situation comes up. Trust me?someone that only blew 6 saves all year, definitely knows who they were against. So there will be heavy pressure on him if that situation happens to come up.
Post season also tends to favor the more experienced team which happens to be Oakland in this one. Oakland has a combined 244 games of post season experience amongst it?s team while the Twins only have two players with any post season experience?those being pitchers Mike Jackson and Rick Reed.
There you have it?..kinda lengthy but hope you see where I?m coming from in laying something this chalky. Feel free to add your comments on this game as well.
Good luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
Well, post season is upon us. After capping the games, it looks to me like Oakland is about as solid of a play as it gets today. The line may be a bit steep, but it is justifiably so in this game today and will share some of my thinking on this one.
Post season = pressure, pressure and more pressure on the players. Everything gets intensified as far as players emotions and their reactions, along with many more factors in the games. This figures to give a huge advantage to Oakland, especially in this first game.
First off lets take a look at the records of the two clubs in the regular season:
Minnesota is a team built for the turf. They lead the league in doubles and and ranked right up there in triples as well. This is much reason for their 54-27 home record. However, on the road this season, the Twins were just a .500 ballclub having just a 40-40 record away from the Dome which should give the advantage to Oakland in this one who like Minny had a 54-27 record at Home this season
This game features a couple of quality pitchers, but the big edge will go to Hudson here who I feel is a pitcher that performs much better in pressure situations and if you look at his numbers this past season it shows:
Hudson allowed a .263 overall average to hitters this season, but when the pressure mounted he was even better:
Hudson with runners on?..only allowed a .248 average to hitters
Hudson with runners in scoring postion?.only allowed a .230 average to hitters
Hudson with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?..only allowed a .184 average to hitters!
Now when you compare this to Brad Radke who?s getting the start for the Twins today, you see a big difference:
Radke allowed a .272 overall average to hitters this season, but when he was in pressure situations, he did not fair well at all?.check out the pressure numbers:
Radke with runners on?..allowed a .339 average to hitters
Radke with runners in scoring position?.allowed a .365 average to hitters
Radke with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?..allowed a .375 average to hitters
Speaking of pressure, you always gotta look at pitchers Home/Away ERA?s in which case you?ll see Radke owns a career ERA on the Road of 4.68 which is quite a bit higher than his career Home ERA of 3.97. This season, he?s been even worse. Radke at home this season was 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA, However, on the Road this season, Radke was just 4-4 with a whopping 6.63 ERA
When you look at these kinda of numbers over both pitchers careers, the numbers hold the same trend, although this season they are much worse with Radke?Advantage Oakland
Hudson also has had very good career numbers vs Minnesota. He is a career 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in 8 career starts vs them and has also been one of the hottest pitchers in the Majors to end the regular season. Hudson has not lost a decision in his last 12 starts and is a perfect 8-0 with a 2.14 ERA in those starts!!!!
Radke vs Oakland in his career has had some troubles. He is just 6-10 in his career vs them, however he does have a respectable ERA of 3.80 against them.
The game is being played in the afternoon today which I believe favors Oakland and Hudson as well. Radke in Day games this season had a 6.30 ERA while Hudson in day games this season had a 2.10 ERA!
Another factor that may play a role in this ?Day Game? is the fact that the ball does seem to carry a bit better at Oakland during the day games and this means that the edge would go to Hudson who his more of the ground ball pitcher. Hudson has induced an amazing 35 double play balls in just 34 games this season and we all know how big of rally killers the double plays balls are Radke has been know to give up his share of home run balls which could spell trouble vs a good power hitting team like Oakland during the afternoon.
Back on the ?pressure situations? factors?.if Minny does have the lead and they end up bringing in ?EVERDAY? Eddy Guardado, the Oakland A?s still will fight to the end. Guardado only had 6 blown saves all year, but the problem with that is that 2 of them were vs Oakland and this could be in the back of his mind if the situation comes up. Trust me?someone that only blew 6 saves all year, definitely knows who they were against. So there will be heavy pressure on him if that situation happens to come up.
Post season also tends to favor the more experienced team which happens to be Oakland in this one. Oakland has a combined 244 games of post season experience amongst it?s team while the Twins only have two players with any post season experience?those being pitchers Mike Jackson and Rick Reed.
There you have it?..kinda lengthy but hope you see where I?m coming from in laying something this chalky. Feel free to add your comments on this game as well.
Good luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
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SOUND ANALYSIS
SOUND ANALYSIS
WITH YOU ON THE A'S AND ALSO LIKE THE UNDERS IN THE PLAYOFFS! ESPECIALLY LIKE ANGELS/YANKS UNDER 8, GL2UME&ALL!
SOUND ANALYSIS
WITH YOU ON THE A'S AND ALSO LIKE THE UNDERS IN THE PLAYOFFS! ESPECIALLY LIKE ANGELS/YANKS UNDER 8, GL2UME&ALL!
i also have oak (and the over), but I think you overstate the playoff experience for oak compared to minny. Yes, they have an advantage, but 115+ of those games for oak are David Justice's alone!!! Takes the advantage way down....
mtk
mtk
ndfan
ndfan
awesome write-up, wish I woulda seen it b4 first pitch ...
I dont bet much baseball but I appreciate thorough research/concepts such as yours, great work!
hope you win a bundle
pt1gard
ndfan
awesome write-up, wish I woulda seen it b4 first pitch ...
I dont bet much baseball but I appreciate thorough research/concepts such as yours, great work!
hope you win a bundle
pt1gard
