Series Plays:
St. Louis Cardinals +170
San Franisco Giants +140
Cardinals- With Schilling's current form and no Gonzo, this line is out of whack. Cards hit Schilling well, and obviously something isn't quite right with him as his performance down the stretch was terrible. Line is clearly a reflection of homefield advantage and the prospect of having Schilling and Johnson pitch four of the five possible games. Otherwise, Cards have a clear advantage in every other category...pitching depth, slight bullpen edge, lineup, defense, bench. D-Backs lineup nowhere near playoff caliber without Gonzo...having Grace and Williams as the dinosaur combo in the middle of the order isn't very imposing. Spivey had a super start to the season but faded in the second half. They haven't had Counsell for quite some time, but this series they will really feel his loss. Clutch player that makes a huge difference in playoff series. Not much faith in Kim or the D-Back starters/long relief after Schilling and Johnson. With the addition of Rolen, Cards lineup is the best in the NL from top to bottom, only weak link is Matheny. Tino is a proven playoff performer and I expect a bit more out of him than what he showed in the regular season. As good as Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen have been, Renteria is the guy that is going to make a difference. One of the best clutch hitters in the league and I think he is going to be a huge factor. Morris showed in last year's series that he is capable of matching the aces for Arizona. Finley has pitched much better in a Cards uniform. Williams/Benes as the 3rd/4th starters or long relief have pitched very well when healthy, as they are now. I think this is great value as the better overall team is the underdog.
Giants- Bonds presence in the lineup is a huge factor in this or any other series. Once you start pitching around players and putting them on base, it gives the opposing team a decided edge right off the bat. If Atlanta is going to pitch around him, having that extra baserunner in what are usually low-scoring, tight games is a big deal IMO. Much will/has been said regarding his postseason woes, but this years version of Bonds is light years ahead of the player he was even a few years ago. And if they do pitch to him, well, everyone has seen what he has done this season when he gets pitches to hit. Kent has been on an absolute tear, Aurilia looks like he has gotten his stroke back after a subpar season, Santiago has been a clutch player all season for them, and Lofton finally gives them a credible leadoff hitter that they have been lacking in previous years. Pitching is the question mark as they don't have the frontline starters that most other playoff teams have. Ortiz can be though when he is on, and he has been to finish the season. Great move by Baker having Schmidt pitch Game 3 in San Fran as he has been lights out pitching at home. Hopefully the Giants can get Eric Gregg back in an umpire's uniform and have him behind the plate for Livan's start. Worrell and Witasick have done well out of the pen all season...the Fultz/Eyre lefty combo worries me though. Rodriguez was terrible the first 3/4 of the season but seems to have found his groove...big boost as he might be the key to the series. Also a pronounced edge as far as homefield goes for San Fran...let's see if Atlanta sells-out their games. Braves are going to be a tough out, but I think they have a couple of holes in their lineup (namely Castilla, whoever is catching..as Lopez has done nothing this season, and the second base combo) and Glavine's second half is a concern. Bullpen edge is a decided advantage for Atlanta, no question there. Chipper/Sheffield duo is tough, but SF has an answer with Bonds/Kent. Hard to find too many faults with the Braves as they were the best team in baseball for most of the season. But I think in a five game series, SF has a good chance (not so much if it was seven games) of knocking them off. More of a 'hunch' and leap of faith..but I think Bonds finally gets off the postseason snide and makes a difference..and I think Ortiz will outpitch Glavine in Game 1 and get SF off to a 1-0 start. If that happens, I think they have a great chance of getting both games at Pac Bell, especially with Schmidt going in Game 3.
I do like both faves in the AL, but won't lay over -200 chalk. I don't see the Angels giving the Yanks much of a challenge, though they seem to be somewhat of a 'trendy' pick. Big pitching and experience edge on NY's side. Also think the A's won't have much of a problem with Minny...huge pitching mismatch and Twinkies don't do well against lefties. Only worry there is the Koch factor.
St. Louis Cardinals +170
San Franisco Giants +140
Cardinals- With Schilling's current form and no Gonzo, this line is out of whack. Cards hit Schilling well, and obviously something isn't quite right with him as his performance down the stretch was terrible. Line is clearly a reflection of homefield advantage and the prospect of having Schilling and Johnson pitch four of the five possible games. Otherwise, Cards have a clear advantage in every other category...pitching depth, slight bullpen edge, lineup, defense, bench. D-Backs lineup nowhere near playoff caliber without Gonzo...having Grace and Williams as the dinosaur combo in the middle of the order isn't very imposing. Spivey had a super start to the season but faded in the second half. They haven't had Counsell for quite some time, but this series they will really feel his loss. Clutch player that makes a huge difference in playoff series. Not much faith in Kim or the D-Back starters/long relief after Schilling and Johnson. With the addition of Rolen, Cards lineup is the best in the NL from top to bottom, only weak link is Matheny. Tino is a proven playoff performer and I expect a bit more out of him than what he showed in the regular season. As good as Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen have been, Renteria is the guy that is going to make a difference. One of the best clutch hitters in the league and I think he is going to be a huge factor. Morris showed in last year's series that he is capable of matching the aces for Arizona. Finley has pitched much better in a Cards uniform. Williams/Benes as the 3rd/4th starters or long relief have pitched very well when healthy, as they are now. I think this is great value as the better overall team is the underdog.
Giants- Bonds presence in the lineup is a huge factor in this or any other series. Once you start pitching around players and putting them on base, it gives the opposing team a decided edge right off the bat. If Atlanta is going to pitch around him, having that extra baserunner in what are usually low-scoring, tight games is a big deal IMO. Much will/has been said regarding his postseason woes, but this years version of Bonds is light years ahead of the player he was even a few years ago. And if they do pitch to him, well, everyone has seen what he has done this season when he gets pitches to hit. Kent has been on an absolute tear, Aurilia looks like he has gotten his stroke back after a subpar season, Santiago has been a clutch player all season for them, and Lofton finally gives them a credible leadoff hitter that they have been lacking in previous years. Pitching is the question mark as they don't have the frontline starters that most other playoff teams have. Ortiz can be though when he is on, and he has been to finish the season. Great move by Baker having Schmidt pitch Game 3 in San Fran as he has been lights out pitching at home. Hopefully the Giants can get Eric Gregg back in an umpire's uniform and have him behind the plate for Livan's start. Worrell and Witasick have done well out of the pen all season...the Fultz/Eyre lefty combo worries me though. Rodriguez was terrible the first 3/4 of the season but seems to have found his groove...big boost as he might be the key to the series. Also a pronounced edge as far as homefield goes for San Fran...let's see if Atlanta sells-out their games. Braves are going to be a tough out, but I think they have a couple of holes in their lineup (namely Castilla, whoever is catching..as Lopez has done nothing this season, and the second base combo) and Glavine's second half is a concern. Bullpen edge is a decided advantage for Atlanta, no question there. Chipper/Sheffield duo is tough, but SF has an answer with Bonds/Kent. Hard to find too many faults with the Braves as they were the best team in baseball for most of the season. But I think in a five game series, SF has a good chance (not so much if it was seven games) of knocking them off. More of a 'hunch' and leap of faith..but I think Bonds finally gets off the postseason snide and makes a difference..and I think Ortiz will outpitch Glavine in Game 1 and get SF off to a 1-0 start. If that happens, I think they have a great chance of getting both games at Pac Bell, especially with Schmidt going in Game 3.
I do like both faves in the AL, but won't lay over -200 chalk. I don't see the Angels giving the Yanks much of a challenge, though they seem to be somewhat of a 'trendy' pick. Big pitching and experience edge on NY's side. Also think the A's won't have much of a problem with Minny...huge pitching mismatch and Twinkies don't do well against lefties. Only worry there is the Koch factor.
