MLB system 2023
- Thread starter Snafu
- Start date
Q: I know you mentioned that this (dogs M-Th) worked for you in NHL... did you happen to go bk and do any research on a previous season?
things can go in streaks sometimes, this is my 3rd wk trying.. made a lil wk 1.. pretty neutral wk 2.. and losing this wk.. we'll see how today goes!
GL to US!
things can go in streaks sometimes, this is my 3rd wk trying.. made a lil wk 1.. pretty neutral wk 2.. and losing this wk.. we'll see how today goes!
GL to US!
noup, right from NHL to MLB. i was curious about teams playing several times against each other in B2B and way higher number of matches.
this is still 24u up for the season so no worries. this is just a test season with raw system (with money of course). i'll do a lot of adjustments for the next NHL season and except way better results.
:0008
this is still 24u up for the season so no worries. this is just a test season with raw system (with money of course). i'll do a lot of adjustments for the next NHL season and except way better results.
:0008
system has been bleeding lately, only 6 winning days out of last 19 days.... still comfortably on the plus side, -200 is a great stop loss rule when playing favs
M/L Picks 441-426-0 50.87% +22.50u
06/12/2023 4-3-0 57.14% +3.88u
06/11/2023 7-6-0 53.85% -1.66u
06/10/2023 8-6-0 57.14% -0.57u
06/09/2023 8-6-0 57.14% +0.60u
06/08/2023 2-7-0 22.22% -4.58u
i'm excepting week long losing strike before all star match and again last two weeks of the season. that's what NHL did, interesting to see if MLB repeats that.
:0corn
M/L Picks 441-426-0 50.87% +22.50u
06/12/2023 4-3-0 57.14% +3.88u
06/11/2023 7-6-0 53.85% -1.66u
06/10/2023 8-6-0 57.14% -0.57u
06/09/2023 8-6-0 57.14% +0.60u
06/08/2023 2-7-0 22.22% -4.58u
i'm excepting week long losing strike before all star match and again last two weeks of the season. that's what NHL did, interesting to see if MLB repeats that.
:0corn
favs started weekend well, i hope they keep killing it
06/16/2023 10-3-0 76.92% +5.90u
06/15/2023 4-6-0 40.00% +0.26u
06/14/2023 4-9-0 30.77% -2.38u
M/L Picks 466-451-0 50.82% +28.93u
:0003
06/16/2023 10-3-0 76.92% +5.90u
06/15/2023 4-6-0 40.00% +0.26u
06/14/2023 4-9-0 30.77% -2.38u
M/L Picks 466-451-0 50.82% +28.93u
:0003
not a good week for dogs W12 - L28 -11.25u
now exactly 1000 matches played. not a good result as $*% but units are okeyish:
M/L Picks 503-497-0 50.30% +16.69u
06/24/2023 8-4-0 66.67% +2.00u
06/23/2023 5-4-0 55.56% -1.35u
06/22/2023 2-5-0 28.57% -1.15u
06/21/2023 4-9-0 30.77% -3.75u
06/20/2023 4-9-0 30.77% -3.85u
06/19/2023 2-5-0 28.57% -2.50u
where did coffee sipping emoji go 🤬
now exactly 1000 matches played. not a good result as $*% but units are okeyish:
M/L Picks 503-497-0 50.30% +16.69u
06/24/2023 8-4-0 66.67% +2.00u
06/23/2023 5-4-0 55.56% -1.35u
06/22/2023 2-5-0 28.57% -1.15u
06/21/2023 4-9-0 30.77% -3.75u
06/20/2023 4-9-0 30.77% -3.85u
06/19/2023 2-5-0 28.57% -2.50u
where did coffee sipping emoji go 🤬
Any opinions about these angles:
Fading teams returning home after 5 or more game road trip:
Total: 64-43 (59.8%) (until june 2nd)
One or more days off: 33-21 (61.1%)
No days off: 31-22 (58.5%)
Fading home favorites: 35-33 (51.5%)
Fading home dogs: 29-10 (74.4%)
new ones for me:
Starting with games played June 2nd, teams outscoring their opponent in the last inning (9th or after) the previous day are 37-11 (77.1%).
Teams scoring 1 run in home loss are 49-32 (60.5%) the next DAY (or same day for doubleheader).
adjusting this dogs/favs system with some angles for the next season
for now running this as i started with no angles included
Fading teams returning home after 5 or more game road trip:
Total: 64-43 (59.8%) (until june 2nd)
One or more days off: 33-21 (61.1%)
No days off: 31-22 (58.5%)
Fading home favorites: 35-33 (51.5%)
Fading home dogs: 29-10 (74.4%)
new ones for me:
Starting with games played June 2nd, teams outscoring their opponent in the last inning (9th or after) the previous day are 37-11 (77.1%).
Teams scoring 1 run in home loss are 49-32 (60.5%) the next DAY (or same day for doubleheader).
adjusting this dogs/favs system with some angles for the next season
for now running this as i started with no angles included
I've never tracked this, but it does seem like teams returning from a long road trip LOSE their 1st gm bk (esp if there's no 'day off' before the homestand begins... don't know about the fav/dog angle of it..
I also believe in the 'after only scoring 1 run at home.. win the NEXT gm) bounce-bk... are u eyeing the fav/dog angle of that?
I know it can be a lot of work, and I'm NOT a spreadsheet type of guy so it's all by hand.. alone.. so errors can occur w/o a 2nd person to chk
whatever, the work is appreciated!
I'm a believer that you cannot win long term betting big faves.. the jujujuice kills ya! so dogs n low faves are best...
Now that said, I've got no idea if it actually holds true.. at what point is the cut-off for a "low favorite"? below -130? -150?
things to ponder as you track stuff
carry on and good luck!
I also believe in the 'after only scoring 1 run at home.. win the NEXT gm) bounce-bk... are u eyeing the fav/dog angle of that?
I know it can be a lot of work, and I'm NOT a spreadsheet type of guy so it's all by hand.. alone.. so errors can occur w/o a 2nd person to chk
whatever, the work is appreciated!
I'm a believer that you cannot win long term betting big faves.. the jujujuice kills ya! so dogs n low faves are best...
Now that said, I've got no idea if it actually holds true.. at what point is the cut-off for a "low favorite"? below -130? -150?
things to ponder as you track stuff
carry on and good luck!
Thanks for the input, i'm looking for good angles and situations where i can drop this dog/fav system matches or play against it.
At the moment Cubs were the system play but took STL +140 because they lost yesterdays match scoring just one run. Also played COL +135 (25-1) and BAL +100 that won in extra innings, both against this dog/favs system.
But these running season long stats will be based on this original system and i don't post other plays stats.
At the moment Cubs were the system play but took STL +140 because they lost yesterdays match scoring just one run. Also played COL +135 (25-1) and BAL +100 that won in extra innings, both against this dog/favs system.
But these running season long stats will be based on this original system and i don't post other plays stats.
wow, weekend -15.37u. i'm gonna play against this system this and next week.
07/02/2023 6-5-0 54.55% -1.62u
M/L Picks 544-550-0 49.73% +0.99u
It's crazy how closely this system follows NHL-seasons ups and downs, except up/down moves have been bigger.
So far M/L Picks 580-592-0 49.49% -8.66u
07/09/2023 7-5-0 58.33% -0.90u
07/08/2023 8-3-0 72.73% +3.55u
07/07/2023 7-6-0 53.85% -1.55u
07/06/2023 5-5-0 50.00% +0.55u
07/05/2023 2-10-0 16.67% -6.95u
07/04/2023 5-8-0 38.46% -1.50u
07/03/2023 2-5-0 28.57% -2.85u
NHL profits went through the roof in 3rd quarter of the season, let's see if MLB repeats that...
So far M/L Picks 580-592-0 49.49% -8.66u
07/09/2023 7-5-0 58.33% -0.90u
07/08/2023 8-3-0 72.73% +3.55u
07/07/2023 7-6-0 53.85% -1.55u
07/06/2023 5-5-0 50.00% +0.55u
07/05/2023 2-10-0 16.67% -6.95u
07/04/2023 5-8-0 38.46% -1.50u
07/03/2023 2-5-0 28.57% -2.85u
NHL profits went through the roof in 3rd quarter of the season, let's see if MLB repeats that...
so you're saying the next 35 gms or so, (IF it mirrors the NHL) could be golden? Not just M-Th, but every day?
appreciate your efforts Snafu!
GL to US!
appreciate your efforts Snafu!
GL to US!
1st week after all-star break +16.32u
M/L Picks 626-623-0 50.12% +7.66u
07/20/2023 6-4-0 60.00% +3.10u
07/19/2023 8-4-0 66.67% +7.27u
07/18/2023 5-7-0 41.67% -0.25u
07/17/2023 3-5-0 37.50% -1.70u
i hope favs repeat last weekends success.
edit: typo
M/L Picks 626-623-0 50.12% +7.66u
07/20/2023 6-4-0 60.00% +3.10u
07/19/2023 8-4-0 66.67% +7.27u
07/18/2023 5-7-0 41.67% -0.25u
07/17/2023 3-5-0 37.50% -1.70u
i hope favs repeat last weekends success.
edit: typo
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