MLB Wednesday
- Thread starter shamrock
- Start date
Good luck. Couple of nice line moves with Seattle today and yesterday.
I wondered...when is it best to play a line drop or follow steam?
For example, STL steamed yesterday. Pirates had a strong drop against the Brewers Tuesday. Both games aould have paid.
Im trying to understand the difference...if there is any. I *think* im being clear with what im asking but let me know if you want me to clear anything up.
Best of luck, Shamrock
I wondered...when is it best to play a line drop or follow steam?
For example, STL steamed yesterday. Pirates had a strong drop against the Brewers Tuesday. Both games aould have paid.
Im trying to understand the difference...if there is any. I *think* im being clear with what im asking but let me know if you want me to clear anything up.
Best of luck, Shamrock
Nothing is a sure thing, and the key word you used is "understand". In order to get a feeling on what's going on it takes watching, researching and checking results on a daily basis. Cleveland today was not a heavy favorite. I believe at 9 AM. They were -122, they moved to +102. That's only a $.20 drop. But what is also important is they 53% backing them.
Yesterday, I believe Seattle had 65% of the public backing them and they dropped from a high of -160 All the Way down to -128. That's a more significant drop. Obviously, and 65% is a considerate percentage of money behind them. Obviously somebody knew something for money to move that much. My guess would be Bauer had terrible numbers against some Seattle hitters, or his warm-ups were looking subpar. Whatever the reason, I don't care, the money still moved. The date previously 74% were on St. Louis Wacha 7-1 2.18 ERA was going for the cards, I forget exactly, but the line dropped like 15 or $.20, that makes no sense. Sure enough Colorado won the ballgame. There are endless scenarios, too many to list, you just have to continue to watch, learn, and get a feel for those kind of scenarios. Sorry if I'm not explaining it right, but there is no sure fire exact science, you have to get a feel for different scenarios. And even those are definitely not sure things. Just trying to win more than you lose, and grind out a profit in bases, stay away from huge chalk.
Yesterday, I believe Seattle had 65% of the public backing them and they dropped from a high of -160 All the Way down to -128. That's a more significant drop. Obviously, and 65% is a considerate percentage of money behind them. Obviously somebody knew something for money to move that much. My guess would be Bauer had terrible numbers against some Seattle hitters, or his warm-ups were looking subpar. Whatever the reason, I don't care, the money still moved. The date previously 74% were on St. Louis Wacha 7-1 2.18 ERA was going for the cards, I forget exactly, but the line dropped like 15 or $.20, that makes no sense. Sure enough Colorado won the ballgame. There are endless scenarios, too many to list, you just have to continue to watch, learn, and get a feel for those kind of scenarios. Sorry if I'm not explaining it right, but there is no sure fire exact science, you have to get a feel for different scenarios. And even those are definitely not sure things. Just trying to win more than you lose, and grind out a profit in bases, stay away from huge chalk.
Understood. Thanks for taking the time out to explain. The RLM is obvious in the Seattle scenario. It's the same animal as football...im just trying to stay on the side of dogs, really, and gauge when the public is way off.
Thanks again.
