MNF Trend Play
- Thread starter Mick Onofrio
- Start date
Locked in at 37
Locked in at 37
was able to get Over 37 (-110) through Wager Mall
so the play is
Over 37 165 to make 150
Locked in at 37
was able to get Over 37 (-110) through Wager Mall
so the play is
Over 37 165 to make 150
Hey Mick, do you have any calculated trend with the pts like you did with college CFB, just curious? Thanks
Why, yes, I did...
Why, yes, I did...
I worked 16 hours saturday so I was unable to post all the calculated lines versus actual line plays, but all-in-all the system went 7-6-1 (16-7-2 for the year) on saturday:
Winners
Central Mich
Arizona
West Virg
BYU
UTEP
Southern Miss
Texas Tech (rare favorite)
Losers
Utah State
Fresno State
Tennessee
Air Force(rare favorite)
Alabama
UL-Lafayette
Push
San Jose State
In the NFL yesterday was 3-2-1 overall 5-2-2 for year
Winners
Wash
Denver...not KC edit
Cleve
Losers
San Diego
Seattle
Ties
Detroit
I wish I could post more but working 16 hours in a prison gives me little time to post. I'm off for the next three days so I will do my best to post all the college games by Wednesday. I will be back soon with calculations for tonight's game.
Why, yes, I did...
I worked 16 hours saturday so I was unable to post all the calculated lines versus actual line plays, but all-in-all the system went 7-6-1 (16-7-2 for the year) on saturday:
Winners
Central Mich
Arizona
West Virg
BYU
UTEP
Southern Miss
Texas Tech (rare favorite)
Losers
Utah State
Fresno State
Tennessee
Air Force(rare favorite)
Alabama
UL-Lafayette
Push
San Jose State
In the NFL yesterday was 3-2-1 overall 5-2-2 for year
Winners
Wash
Denver...not KC edit
Cleve
Losers
San Diego
Seattle
Ties
Detroit
I wish I could post more but working 16 hours in a prison gives me little time to post. I'm off for the next three days so I will do my best to post all the college games by Wednesday. I will be back soon with calculations for tonight's game.
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CALCULATED LINE vs ACTUAL LINE MNF
CALCULATED LINE vs ACTUAL LINE MNF
Kenman,
Glad you asked because I put the numbers in and they go like this.
Indy at TB
Actual Line: TB -4 thru -4.5
Calculated Line: Indy -0.03 thru Ind -2.86 (avg Indy -1.38)
Line Value: 4.03/4.53 thru 6.86/7.36
Average Line Value: 5.38/5.88
All of the Numbers and Line Value Numbers Favor: INDY
And Indy shows up as an across-the-board Favorite.
I'm cautious because last week's drubbing of New Orleans really pumped these numbers up for Indy. And keep in mind that I designed this whole thing for NCAA FB. Its success in the NFL this year has been a mystery to me. Indy faces a much better Defense then it has faced all year but in turn...Indy has the league's most improved Defense.
I see a lot of points being scored despite both defenses for some reason tonight. Indy is still the best team in football right now and I was always taught to ride out streaks, never bet against them. That said...I trust my program tonight:
Indy 28 Tampa Bay 24
CALCULATED LINE vs ACTUAL LINE MNF
Kenman,
Glad you asked because I put the numbers in and they go like this.
Indy at TB
Actual Line: TB -4 thru -4.5
Calculated Line: Indy -0.03 thru Ind -2.86 (avg Indy -1.38)
Line Value: 4.03/4.53 thru 6.86/7.36
Average Line Value: 5.38/5.88
All of the Numbers and Line Value Numbers Favor: INDY
And Indy shows up as an across-the-board Favorite.
I'm cautious because last week's drubbing of New Orleans really pumped these numbers up for Indy. And keep in mind that I designed this whole thing for NCAA FB. Its success in the NFL this year has been a mystery to me. Indy faces a much better Defense then it has faced all year but in turn...Indy has the league's most improved Defense.
I see a lot of points being scored despite both defenses for some reason tonight. Indy is still the best team in football right now and I was always taught to ride out streaks, never bet against them. That said...I trust my program tonight:
Indy 28 Tampa Bay 24
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Afraid to move the line???
Afraid to move the line???
12 Sportsbooks have either moved it to 4.5 or stayed at 4 and changed the juice either way the Total has come down to 37 at all of them. There is psychology behind a 4.5 remember last week Chi/GB...despite all the Green Bay money early they wouldn't move it and eventually got a decent amount of money on chi. I wonder if the books are just trying to get some money on the Indy side...50/50 the house never loses. 60/40 they pretty much cut their losses and call it even. Favorites are 5-7-1 so far. Maybe it's a Doggy Style week considering favs were checking in around 70% through 3 weeks. Still the play is:
INDY +4.5 110/100
Over 37 165/150
Adding
Parlay 50/130
Teaser:
INDY +10.5
Over 31 100/100
Taking a chance tonight risking 425 to make 480
Afraid to move the line???
12 Sportsbooks have either moved it to 4.5 or stayed at 4 and changed the juice either way the Total has come down to 37 at all of them. There is psychology behind a 4.5 remember last week Chi/GB...despite all the Green Bay money early they wouldn't move it and eventually got a decent amount of money on chi. I wonder if the books are just trying to get some money on the Indy side...50/50 the house never loses. 60/40 they pretty much cut their losses and call it even. Favorites are 5-7-1 so far. Maybe it's a Doggy Style week considering favs were checking in around 70% through 3 weeks. Still the play is:
INDY +4.5 110/100
Over 37 165/150
Adding
Parlay 50/130
Teaser:
INDY +10.5
Over 31 100/100
Taking a chance tonight risking 425 to make 480
Good luck tonite, thanks for sharing the info, really helped me out.
was looking to tease the colts(+11 1/2) and the over(30 1/2)
btp
was looking to tease the colts(+11 1/2) and the over(30 1/2)
btp
Mick, glad to see you posted the calculated #'s, I with you on IND and OV. Here is another system that posted by GM in this forum...
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (31-13-1, 70.5% since '98).
Play on: Miami (if NYG is favored), Indianapolis. GLTA and thanks Mick.
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (31-13-1, 70.5% since '98).
Play on: Miami (if NYG is favored), Indianapolis. GLTA and thanks Mick.
Adding
Adding
Indy +5.5 (100) 50 to make 50
First Half Parlay
Indy +3 over 18.5
25 to make 68.18
Adding
Indy +5.5 (100) 50 to make 50
First Half Parlay
Indy +3 over 18.5
25 to make 68.18
I love the NFL
I love the NFL
the Nevada Fixedball League that is...only this time it's fixed in my favor. Looks like I hit every bet but the the $25 1st half parlay.
Over 37 +$150
Indy +4.5 +$100
Indy +5.5 +$50
Teased Indy +10.5 Over 31 +$100
Parlayed Indy +4.5 and Over 37 +$130
-$25 1st half parlay
+$505 Nevada Football League Plays
+$300 On my Red Sox
+$805 for the night.
I love the NFL
the Nevada Fixedball League that is...only this time it's fixed in my favor. Looks like I hit every bet but the the $25 1st half parlay.
Over 37 +$150
Indy +4.5 +$100
Indy +5.5 +$50
Teased Indy +10.5 Over 31 +$100
Parlayed Indy +4.5 and Over 37 +$130
-$25 1st half parlay
+$505 Nevada Football League Plays
+$300 On my Red Sox
+$805 for the night.
