mnf......

A

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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tonight i'm taking.....


under 38(130) oak/seattle.....

we all know that seattle will be without alexander & hasselback. with wallace at qb, seattle has statistically a below average offense, while oak.'s offense is the worst in the league. of all of the units that will be on the field tonight, oakland's defense is probably the strongest ( they're ranked #3 in ints).

i feel that the way oakland's defense is playing, shell will be content to run the ball & not take too many chances.

i also think seattle will be pretty conservative tonight.i read an interview holmgren did regarding tonight's game.i think a quote from that article sums up why i think this will be a low scoring game....."we have to play better defensively, & we can't turn the ball over, & we have to play sound offensive football to give us a chance".

here is a trend/system supporting this play.....

play under - any team against the total (seattle) - off 4 or more consecutive overs, an average offensive team (18-23 ppg) against an average defensive team (18-23 ppg).

over last 10 seasons the ats record is....31-8....79.5%

i also checked a weather site & the weather forecast for tonight's game is calling for 100% rain & 21 mph winds.....hopefully that forecast will be correct....


good luck.
 
Last edited:
B

Bama6895

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Jan 29, 2001
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AR182,

What are your feelings on it at 36.5 which is what I am showing as of right now? Thanks in advance and thanks for your analysis here and in college pigskins.
 
A

AR182

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Nov 9, 2000
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Scottsdale,AZ
thanks guys..appreciate it.

bama...

i know many people don't agree with buying points...but i would buy up to 37 or 38 to cover 2 important numbers. that said i don't like to advise people or make predictions but i liked the under before i read about the weather conditions. now with the type of forecast i have been seeing, i don't think the score will approach the mid 30s.

but i can be wrong....

good luck with whatever you decide.
 
M

Marra

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Aug 31, 2002
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Buying points on totals is a big time losing proposition...

At worst tease it...but if you dont like the 36.5 number than my advice is a "no play."
 
LonghornMM

LonghornMM

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Oct 30, 2003
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The the thing that concerns me about going under on a "weather game" is that most people over react just because of the weather, which forces the total to drop to a ridiculous number. I've been guilty of reacting this way myself over the years and have gotten burned doing it. I may wait until five minutes before kickoff, let it drop as low as possible and then jump on the over.

Saying that, I still haven't decided what I'm going to play. I need to pick one side (leaning to Oakland) or the total (lean to the over) and hit it hard.

BTW, some books have it at 34 1/2 now, and it will probably keep dropping. :scared
 
R

Ronnie

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Oct 16, 2000
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Good Luck AR! Great number with the 38. I would be tempted to put a little on the over at 34 and catch a middle.
 
LonghornMM

LonghornMM

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Oct 30, 2003
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Great call on the game tonite ar. I wish I would have been on the under with you. This one is over. Both teams suck ass! Congrats.
 
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