TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
AIR FORCE
5-14 in 2nd half of season
20-11 as RD
4-10 vs team with lose record
0-6 off road conf loss
7-10 conf host; 1-7 as conf HF > 7
7-1 as conf HD
2-10 as fave 10-20 pts
8-4 vs Pac 10 (Cal)
8-2 road open (UNLV)
11-4 on turf (UNLV, Utah, Army)
13-5 before Navy (Utah)
4-8 vs Navy
2-7 vs New Mex; 1-8 before BYU
12-4-1 after bye (BYU); 6-1 vs BYU
6-11 before Army (Wyo)
Army series host 15-5; 11-4 vs Army
Col St series fav 4-9-1
BYU
12-3 revenging home loss (Stanf, Boise, Col St, Air Force)
1-9 vs good pass team (avg > 250 ypg)
16-51 when allow > 28 pts
3-9 as RF
8-18 after SU win
6-11 conf host
5-10 vs Pac 10 (USC, Stanf)
10-5 before bye (USC)
3-13 road open (Stanf); 6-12 after bye
3-11 vs WAC (Boise)
3-13 conf road open (Col St)
0-7 in 3rd straight road (Col St)
1-11 in 1st home after 2+ road (UNLV)
0-8 vs Wyo
1-5 in 2nd BB home (Wyo, SD St)
8-3 host SD St
2-6 in 3rd st home (New Mex)
Utah series vis 11-1
COLORADO STATE
22-10 when line +3 to -3
16-5 off conf win > 21 pts
10-2 as HD
15-3 vs team that commit > 2.5 TO/gm
37-18 in final 5 games
22-11-1 as RD
18-2-1 as conf pick or dog
0-7-1 in conf open (BYU)
3-7 home open (Minn)
14-5 before bye (BYU)
16-4 after bye (SD St)
Wyo series vis 10-2; series fave 1-10
7-1 after Wyo (New Mex)
5-1 vs Utah; 9-2 after New Mex
2-6 vs UNLV; series dog 7-1
Air Force series host 4-10-1; 12-4 final road
NEW MEXICO
8-0 vs good rush team (avg > 200 ypg)
11-22 non-conf
4-10 as RF < 7 pts
17-9 off home loss
25-15 as HD
19-8 as HF
12-6 conf host
20-5 in 2nd BB home (Tex Tech)
8-4 in 2nd BB road (New Mex St)
9-1 in HC game (Utah); 8-4 after New Mex St
7-2 vs Air Force
13-4 vs SD St; 9-1 before Col St
7-3 before bye (Col St); series fave 3-8
11-0 after bye (BYU); 9-6 vs BYU; 6-1 final road
11-5 final home (Wyo); series host 6-2
SAN DIEGO ST
4-11 vs good offence (avg > 6.25 ypp)
5-18 revenging a road loss (UCLA, Col St, Utah)
10-17 as HD; 1-10 as HD > 7
16-9-1 as RD; 10-2-1 as DD RD
7-11 as conf host
3-16-1 after SU dog win
3-15 off BB ATS wins
3-9 road open (Mich)
2-9-1 vs UCLA; 8-18-1 vs Pac 10
11-2 conf open (Wyo); 5-0 in 3rd straight road; 9-1 after UCLA
Col St series host 1-5
New Mex series dog 10-4; 2-9 vs New Mex
3-8 at BYU
7-3 in final road (Air Force)
UNLV
11-4 revenging a home loss (BYU, Utah, Col St, SD St)
3-8 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
12-21 at home
15-4 as dog >20
7-13 as HD
5-13 conf host
2-9 as dog < 7
1-10 off SU win
1-6 before Air Force (Wisc)
BYU series fave 1-6
1-5 before bye (Utah)
Wyo series dog 6-2
4-0 at Col St; series fave 1-7
6-2 final road (SD St)
UTAH
16-4 vs poor rush team (avg < 120 ypg)
5-10 vs poor team (win pct < 25 %)
22-8 as RD
31-17 non-conf game
8-1 as HF > 11
5-1 vs Big 12 (Tex AM)
8-2 road open (Ariz)
Utah St series vis 8-4; 11-4 vs Utah St
Air Force series host 1-6
14-4 before bye (New Mex)
16-9 after bye (North Car)
5-0 vs UNLV
SD St series SU winner 14-1
Col St series vis 9-3
8-3 vs Wyo
BYU series vis 11-1
WYOMING
12-1 vs good pass team (avg > 275 ypg)
5-12 vs poor offence (avg < 310 ypg)
2-9 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
5-15 as RF; 2-8 as RF < 10
6-12 non-conf
5-10 as HF
7-3 before bye (Tex AM)
1-5-1 vs SD St
8-1 vs BYU; series dog 8-0
Col St series vis 10-2; series dog 11-1
Air Force series host 1-5
1-7 on turf (UNLV); 2-6 vs UNLV
3-8 vs Utah
1-7 final road (New Mex)
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
AIR FORCE
5-14 in 2nd half of season
20-11 as RD
4-10 vs team with lose record
0-6 off road conf loss
7-10 conf host; 1-7 as conf HF > 7
7-1 as conf HD
2-10 as fave 10-20 pts
8-4 vs Pac 10 (Cal)
8-2 road open (UNLV)
11-4 on turf (UNLV, Utah, Army)
13-5 before Navy (Utah)
4-8 vs Navy
2-7 vs New Mex; 1-8 before BYU
12-4-1 after bye (BYU); 6-1 vs BYU
6-11 before Army (Wyo)
Army series host 15-5; 11-4 vs Army
Col St series fav 4-9-1
BYU
12-3 revenging home loss (Stanf, Boise, Col St, Air Force)
1-9 vs good pass team (avg > 250 ypg)
16-51 when allow > 28 pts
3-9 as RF
8-18 after SU win
6-11 conf host
5-10 vs Pac 10 (USC, Stanf)
10-5 before bye (USC)
3-13 road open (Stanf); 6-12 after bye
3-11 vs WAC (Boise)
3-13 conf road open (Col St)
0-7 in 3rd straight road (Col St)
1-11 in 1st home after 2+ road (UNLV)
0-8 vs Wyo
1-5 in 2nd BB home (Wyo, SD St)
8-3 host SD St
2-6 in 3rd st home (New Mex)
Utah series vis 11-1
COLORADO STATE
22-10 when line +3 to -3
16-5 off conf win > 21 pts
10-2 as HD
15-3 vs team that commit > 2.5 TO/gm
37-18 in final 5 games
22-11-1 as RD
18-2-1 as conf pick or dog
0-7-1 in conf open (BYU)
3-7 home open (Minn)
14-5 before bye (BYU)
16-4 after bye (SD St)
Wyo series vis 10-2; series fave 1-10
7-1 after Wyo (New Mex)
5-1 vs Utah; 9-2 after New Mex
2-6 vs UNLV; series dog 7-1
Air Force series host 4-10-1; 12-4 final road
NEW MEXICO
8-0 vs good rush team (avg > 200 ypg)
11-22 non-conf
4-10 as RF < 7 pts
17-9 off home loss
25-15 as HD
19-8 as HF
12-6 conf host
20-5 in 2nd BB home (Tex Tech)
8-4 in 2nd BB road (New Mex St)
9-1 in HC game (Utah); 8-4 after New Mex St
7-2 vs Air Force
13-4 vs SD St; 9-1 before Col St
7-3 before bye (Col St); series fave 3-8
11-0 after bye (BYU); 9-6 vs BYU; 6-1 final road
11-5 final home (Wyo); series host 6-2
SAN DIEGO ST
4-11 vs good offence (avg > 6.25 ypp)
5-18 revenging a road loss (UCLA, Col St, Utah)
10-17 as HD; 1-10 as HD > 7
16-9-1 as RD; 10-2-1 as DD RD
7-11 as conf host
3-16-1 after SU dog win
3-15 off BB ATS wins
3-9 road open (Mich)
2-9-1 vs UCLA; 8-18-1 vs Pac 10
11-2 conf open (Wyo); 5-0 in 3rd straight road; 9-1 after UCLA
Col St series host 1-5
New Mex series dog 10-4; 2-9 vs New Mex
3-8 at BYU
7-3 in final road (Air Force)
UNLV
11-4 revenging a home loss (BYU, Utah, Col St, SD St)
3-8 as fave 3.5 to 10 pts
12-21 at home
15-4 as dog >20
7-13 as HD
5-13 conf host
2-9 as dog < 7
1-10 off SU win
1-6 before Air Force (Wisc)
BYU series fave 1-6
1-5 before bye (Utah)
Wyo series dog 6-2
4-0 at Col St; series fave 1-7
6-2 final road (SD St)
UTAH
16-4 vs poor rush team (avg < 120 ypg)
5-10 vs poor team (win pct < 25 %)
22-8 as RD
31-17 non-conf game
8-1 as HF > 11
5-1 vs Big 12 (Tex AM)
8-2 road open (Ariz)
Utah St series vis 8-4; 11-4 vs Utah St
Air Force series host 1-6
14-4 before bye (New Mex)
16-9 after bye (North Car)
5-0 vs UNLV
SD St series SU winner 14-1
Col St series vis 9-3
8-3 vs Wyo
BYU series vis 11-1
WYOMING
12-1 vs good pass team (avg > 275 ypg)
5-12 vs poor offence (avg < 310 ypg)
2-9 as dog 3.5 to 10 pts
5-15 as RF; 2-8 as RF < 10
6-12 non-conf
5-10 as HF
7-3 before bye (Tex AM)
1-5-1 vs SD St
8-1 vs BYU; series dog 8-0
Col St series vis 10-2; series dog 11-1
Air Force series host 1-5
1-7 on turf (UNLV); 2-6 vs UNLV
3-8 vs Utah
1-7 final road (New Mex)
