this guy used to be either a gm or scout in the nfl & is pretty astute when it comes to the nfl...
however, unless oakland gets a better qb than josh mccowen i don't see them passing on either russell or quinn. i also don't see peterson falling to #10...
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(March 28, 2007) -- After spending a few days with the general managers, coaches and an owner or two at the NFL owners' meetings in Phoenix this week, I have a much different perspective about where the draft is headed.
Mock draft No. 5 reflects the trade between the Falcons and Texans that sent Matt Schaub to Houston, the Eagles-Bills trade involving Takeo Spikes, and all the information floating around Phoenix. Free-agent signings are slowing down a bit but there are still a few personnel moves affecting the draft.
The top of the draft seems to have changed the most in the past week as teams seem to be settling in on their plans. As one GM said, "There is the potential for more trades than ever on draft day."
Note: Changes from the fourth mock draft are marked with an asterisk. There are two hypothetical trades in this mock draft.
1. **Oakland: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- The Raiders have a lot of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball, JaMarcus Russell. By passing on the opportunity to get Schaub in a trade, it looks like a quarterback is the pick -- but if the Raiders secure a QB like Josh McCown from the Lions, then here comes Calvin Johnson. Let's go with Johnson, the top-rated player on most draft boards!
2. **Cleveland (after trade with Detroit): JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Lions here could take Russell, Gaines Adams or move down, but it would not surprise me if it is a swap with Cleveland and the Browns take Russell.
3. **Detroit (after trade with Cleveland): Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- Now that they've traded down, the Lions could go in a lot of directions. I think they'll sit right here and take a quarterback later in the draft.
4. **Arizona (after trade with Tampa Bay): Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- There's no reason for the Bucs to move up if Calvin Johnson is gone at the top spot, so now they let the draft come to them. Joe Thomas would be a solid pick for teh Bucs even though they have Luke Petitgout, but they will seriously talk about Brady Quinn even though they have Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski and maybe Jake Plummer. I say Tampa moves down one spot with the Cardinals and lets them take Thomas.
5. **Tampa Bay (after trade with Arizona): Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- Quinn is still out there, but I say the Bucs are thinking Branch. The big defensive end is the eventual replacement for Simeon Rice and the Tampa defense needs an injection of youth.
6. Washington: Alan Branch, NT, Michigan -- There are a lot of rumors that the Redskins will trade out of this spot if they can get their hands on Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs. If they stay in the No. 6 spot, they could take Branch or LaRon Landry. If Chicago winds up in this spot, it could be for a defensive tackle like Amobi Okoye to pair up with Tommie Harris, or for quarterback Brady Quinn.
7. **Minnesota: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- The decision to stay put and not move up pays off for Brad Childress and his staff. Childress gets a solid quarterback who should be a 10-year starter.
8. **Atlanta: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- After trading Matt Schaub, the Falcons now are two spots higher at No. 8 and will take Landry if he's here. He is the best safety in the draft and should be a Week 1 starter. If not, it will be Amobi Okoye. Bobby Petrino is the new head coach and he coached the 19-year-old in college.
9. Miami: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- The Dolphins have not had a real solid left tackle since Richmond Webb. Brown will line up Week 1 in September and won't come off the field for 10 years.
10. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- Houston moved down two spots in the Schaub trade and probably lost the chance to take Levi Brown, so the Texans call Peterson's name. Even though they signed Ahman Green, Peterson is the highest-rated player on their board at this point.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years.
12. Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Willis is the best middle linebacker in the draft, and the Bills lost London Fletcher in free agency and traded Takeo Spikes to the Eagles. Willis recently ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and is a tackling machine. Don't be surprised if Buffalo moves down a few spots and goes in a different direction. For example, Carolina could jump up two spots and take Willis while the Bills drop down for Penn State's Paul Posluszny.
13. **St. Louis: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- There was a lot of debate on the Rams' pick this weekend by club executives studying this every day. Last week it was Leon Hall, then Darrelle Revis turned in a 4.39 40-yard dash with his size, but a super-quick penetrating tackle is a great value.
14. **Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (Fla.) -- If the Panthers wanted Willis, they would have moved up, but the Carolina decision makers seem very impressed Olsen. The Panthers need a linebacker but this crop does not impress them enough.
15. **Pittsburgh: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- The Steelers could easily take an outside linebacker here, but the corner might have a higher grade. Mike Tomlin plays Cover 2; corners in zone are not as big a priority as they are for man-coverage teams. But Revis ran a 4.39 and is a solid player. By the way, the Steelers are staying in the 3-4 regardless of the rumors.
16. **Green Bay: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- Questions are emerging about RB Marshawn Lynch. Bowe gives Favre another big target. The Pack will take a running back in the next round.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone, so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but Nelson's personal workout should make him the choice.
18. Cincinnati: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Bengals want a corner or a safety. Houston is a solid pick, but I wonder what kind of offense the team would have if Greg Olsen were selected here.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his "own guys." Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but here's a guy who scored a touchdown once every five receptions.
20. N.Y. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State -- The free-agent market for linebackers became lean when Cato June signed with the Bucs. The Giants completed a transaction to acquire Kavika Mitchell, the Kansas City free-agent linebacker. But his deal is only for one year, so linebacker is still a priority. If Jarrett is still available, the Giants will think about it.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney, so Moss makes some sense at this spot.
22. Dallas: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The Cowboys will look at the best corners, safeties and wide receivers at this spot. With three or four solid wide receivers and at least two defensive backs left with first-round grades, Jerry Jones will get a good player.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- The Chiefs really want a great defensive tackle at this spot but the draft board says wait -- because the best are gone. If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Chiefs offense. He will push the field and create underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez. He also has eight touchdowns on kick returns, and Dante Hall isn't the player he once was.
24. **New England: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Patriots worked out Hall last week and he just dropped into their lap. He's too hard to pass up at this point. Here comes the run on corners.
25. N.Y. Jets: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Jets need help in the secondary and on the defensive line, and now that Olsen is gone, they discuss the remaining corners and take Ross.
26. Philadelphia: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- The Eagles set up their trade with the Bills by signing free agent Monte Reagor so they could trade Darwin Walker, so now they will turn to a cornerback or safety. They will discuss Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer and Brandon Merriweather before taking one of the biggest corners in the draft and one who can match up with the big NFC East receivers.
27. **New Orleans: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan -- The versatile lineman is moving up the board. With Greg Olsen gone and no defensive tackles available, the Saints take the tackle.
28. New England: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- With two first-round picks and a very aggressive offseason in the free-agency market, the Patriots can afford to take the highest-rated center and not worry about the position for a very long time.
29. **Baltimore: Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- The Ravens lost Adalius Thomas and are prepared to play with the guys they have on the roster, but Spencer might fall to them and he is a perfect fit as a pressure player.
30. San Diego: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The Chargers need an injection of young receivers and Meachem looked fast and smooth at the Combine. If he falls to San Diego, this would be a steal for the team. If he doesn't and Dwayne Bowe is available, he's another great choice.
31. **Chicago: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami -- With Staley gone and Lance Briggs threatening to hold out, the Bears could go in a few directions. Briggs won't be signed to a long-term deal, so Beason will replace him. If Washington acquires Briggs and winds up in this spot, then I could see the Redskins taking a defensive lineman here.
32. **Indianapolis: Tank Tyler, DT, N.C. State -- The run on outside linebackers leave the Colts the choice of a DT or an OG. Tank can clog up the middle and help the run defense right away.
however, unless oakland gets a better qb than josh mccowen i don't see them passing on either russell or quinn. i also don't see peterson falling to #10...
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(March 28, 2007) -- After spending a few days with the general managers, coaches and an owner or two at the NFL owners' meetings in Phoenix this week, I have a much different perspective about where the draft is headed.
Mock draft No. 5 reflects the trade between the Falcons and Texans that sent Matt Schaub to Houston, the Eagles-Bills trade involving Takeo Spikes, and all the information floating around Phoenix. Free-agent signings are slowing down a bit but there are still a few personnel moves affecting the draft.
The top of the draft seems to have changed the most in the past week as teams seem to be settling in on their plans. As one GM said, "There is the potential for more trades than ever on draft day."
Note: Changes from the fourth mock draft are marked with an asterisk. There are two hypothetical trades in this mock draft.
1. **Oakland: Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech -- The Raiders have a lot of needs, but as long as quarterback is one of them, they have to respond by selecting the guy with the great deep ball, JaMarcus Russell. By passing on the opportunity to get Schaub in a trade, it looks like a quarterback is the pick -- but if the Raiders secure a QB like Josh McCown from the Lions, then here comes Calvin Johnson. Let's go with Johnson, the top-rated player on most draft boards!
2. **Cleveland (after trade with Detroit): JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU -- The Lions here could take Russell, Gaines Adams or move down, but it would not surprise me if it is a swap with Cleveland and the Browns take Russell.
3. **Detroit (after trade with Cleveland): Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson -- Now that they've traded down, the Lions could go in a lot of directions. I think they'll sit right here and take a quarterback later in the draft.
4. **Arizona (after trade with Tampa Bay): Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin -- There's no reason for the Bucs to move up if Calvin Johnson is gone at the top spot, so now they let the draft come to them. Joe Thomas would be a solid pick for teh Bucs even though they have Luke Petitgout, but they will seriously talk about Brady Quinn even though they have Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski and maybe Jake Plummer. I say Tampa moves down one spot with the Cardinals and lets them take Thomas.
5. **Tampa Bay (after trade with Arizona): Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas -- Quinn is still out there, but I say the Bucs are thinking Branch. The big defensive end is the eventual replacement for Simeon Rice and the Tampa defense needs an injection of youth.
6. Washington: Alan Branch, NT, Michigan -- There are a lot of rumors that the Redskins will trade out of this spot if they can get their hands on Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs. If they stay in the No. 6 spot, they could take Branch or LaRon Landry. If Chicago winds up in this spot, it could be for a defensive tackle like Amobi Okoye to pair up with Tommie Harris, or for quarterback Brady Quinn.
7. **Minnesota: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame -- The decision to stay put and not move up pays off for Brad Childress and his staff. Childress gets a solid quarterback who should be a 10-year starter.
8. **Atlanta: LaRon Landry, S, LSU -- After trading Matt Schaub, the Falcons now are two spots higher at No. 8 and will take Landry if he's here. He is the best safety in the draft and should be a Week 1 starter. If not, it will be Amobi Okoye. Bobby Petrino is the new head coach and he coached the 19-year-old in college.
9. Miami: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State -- The Dolphins have not had a real solid left tackle since Richmond Webb. Brown will line up Week 1 in September and won't come off the field for 10 years.
10. Houston: Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma -- Houston moved down two spots in the Schaub trade and probably lost the chance to take Levi Brown, so the Texans call Peterson's name. Even though they signed Ahman Green, Peterson is the highest-rated player on their board at this point.
11. San Francisco: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska -- Carriker is a great fit for coach Mike Nolan and his desire to build a solid 3-4 defense with high-character players. He plugs in as a rookie and holds his spot for eight to 10 years.
12. Buffalo: Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi -- Willis is the best middle linebacker in the draft, and the Bills lost London Fletcher in free agency and traded Takeo Spikes to the Eagles. Willis recently ran under 4.4 in the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and is a tackling machine. Don't be surprised if Buffalo moves down a few spots and goes in a different direction. For example, Carolina could jump up two spots and take Willis while the Bills drop down for Penn State's Paul Posluszny.
13. **St. Louis: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville -- There was a lot of debate on the Rams' pick this weekend by club executives studying this every day. Last week it was Leon Hall, then Darrelle Revis turned in a 4.39 40-yard dash with his size, but a super-quick penetrating tackle is a great value.
14. **Carolina: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (Fla.) -- If the Panthers wanted Willis, they would have moved up, but the Carolina decision makers seem very impressed Olsen. The Panthers need a linebacker but this crop does not impress them enough.
15. **Pittsburgh: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh -- The Steelers could easily take an outside linebacker here, but the corner might have a higher grade. Mike Tomlin plays Cover 2; corners in zone are not as big a priority as they are for man-coverage teams. But Revis ran a 4.39 and is a solid player. By the way, the Steelers are staying in the 3-4 regardless of the rumors.
16. **Green Bay: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU -- Questions are emerging about RB Marshawn Lynch. Bowe gives Favre another big target. The Pack will take a running back in the next round.
17. Jacksonville: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida -- Deon Grant is gone, so a starting safety is needed. There will be discussions about other safeties like Michael Griffin, but Nelson's personal workout should make him the choice.
18. Cincinnati: Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas -- The Bengals want a corner or a safety. Houston is a solid pick, but I wonder what kind of offense the team would have if Greg Olsen were selected here.
19. Tennessee: Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC -- Drew Bennett is gone and offensive coordinator Norm Chow needs a few of his "own guys." Jarrett scores touchdowns and is a very big target in the red zone. Some people have Jarrett out of the first round, but here's a guy who scored a touchdown once every five receptions.
20. N.Y. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State -- The free-agent market for linebackers became lean when Cato June signed with the Bucs. The Giants completed a transaction to acquire Kavika Mitchell, the Kansas City free-agent linebacker. But his deal is only for one year, so linebacker is still a priority. If Jarrett is still available, the Giants will think about it.
21. Denver: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida -- The Broncos lost out in their pursuit of Patrick Kerney, so Moss makes some sense at this spot.
22. Dallas: Michael Griffin, S, Texas -- The Cowboys will look at the best corners, safeties and wide receivers at this spot. With three or four solid wide receivers and at least two defensive backs left with first-round grades, Jerry Jones will get a good player.
23. Kansas City: Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State -- The Chiefs really want a great defensive tackle at this spot but the draft board says wait -- because the best are gone. If Ginn does fall to the Chiefs, it will be a big day for the Chiefs offense. He will push the field and create underneath lanes for tight end Tony Gonzalez. He also has eight touchdowns on kick returns, and Dante Hall isn't the player he once was.
24. **New England: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan -- The Patriots worked out Hall last week and he just dropped into their lap. He's too hard to pass up at this point. Here comes the run on corners.
25. N.Y. Jets: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas -- The Jets need help in the secondary and on the defensive line, and now that Olsen is gone, they discuss the remaining corners and take Ross.
26. Philadelphia: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State -- The Eagles set up their trade with the Bills by signing free agent Monte Reagor so they could trade Darwin Walker, so now they will turn to a cornerback or safety. They will discuss Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer and Brandon Merriweather before taking one of the biggest corners in the draft and one who can match up with the big NFC East receivers.
27. **New Orleans: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan -- The versatile lineman is moving up the board. With Greg Olsen gone and no defensive tackles available, the Saints take the tackle.
28. New England: Ryan Kalil, C, USC -- With two first-round picks and a very aggressive offseason in the free-agency market, the Patriots can afford to take the highest-rated center and not worry about the position for a very long time.
29. **Baltimore: Anthony Spencer, LB/DE, Purdue -- The Ravens lost Adalius Thomas and are prepared to play with the guys they have on the roster, but Spencer might fall to them and he is a perfect fit as a pressure player.
30. San Diego: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee -- The Chargers need an injection of young receivers and Meachem looked fast and smooth at the Combine. If he falls to San Diego, this would be a steal for the team. If he doesn't and Dwayne Bowe is available, he's another great choice.
31. **Chicago: Jon Beason, OLB, Miami -- With Staley gone and Lance Briggs threatening to hold out, the Bears could go in a few directions. Briggs won't be signed to a long-term deal, so Beason will replace him. If Washington acquires Briggs and winds up in this spot, then I could see the Redskins taking a defensive lineman here.
32. **Indianapolis: Tank Tyler, DT, N.C. State -- The run on outside linebackers leave the Colts the choice of a DT or an OG. Tank can clog up the middle and help the run defense right away.
