Mon games

[gsp]

Don't usually post without knowing the umps but since it's slow thought I would let you know where I stand. These are subject to change when I know the umps or more likely not be a play.

Right now I like Colo. (see ndn), the Cubs and Ana. Also like the over in Chi if the wind stays the same. Right now the wind is blowing straight out to center so why is the line under 10. Watch that wind because you don't want it to change. Also, CC hits Oswalt pretty good. Houston hasn't faired too well with Wood. Can't figure why Hou is fav and noticed that the line is dropping. The ump will be the difference in whether or not I play this game. Public seems to like the Cubs which makes this line even more suspect.

Ana looks pretty solid to me but I don't want to pay this much juice. At 8' I like the over and if I get a good ump will play the over. That hook is there to do in the under players.

 

[Nickelback]

GSP,

This once again is VERY similar to last night's game with the Cards/Mets. I will once again be on the team that shouldn't be favored on paper: Astros

 

[gsp]

Nickelback, last night I was on Stl for the same reasons that I like the Cubs today + the ump. The public has to be right sometime.

 

[Nickelback]

For me this isn't a play against the public, but against the perception of which team should be favored. . . so far the line hasn't moved that much in Vegas or on my book to make me believe the public has chosen a side (nor the wise guys for that matter). But like you said, I would assume the Cubs to have been the favorite in this game based on previous results with these pitchers. However, Oswalt has been red hot his past three starts since his last start against the Cubbies and I guess I just hope the Cubs got all of the runs out of their system last night!

Good luck bud and please let me know what you find out about the ump.

 

[ndnfan]

Nickelback....now you got me confused :shrug: So what your're saying is that you are playing against your perception of what team should be favored and not the public's perception?

Anyways, I too would probably have to lean towards the Cubs. One reason the total might be a little lower is because both pitchers really don't allow too many home runs, but rather alot of ground balls. So if the winds blowing out, be careful on the totals with these type of pitchers.

However, If you've ever noticed, the Cubbies have a lot of hitters that are very good low ball hitters and they usually tend to do quite well vs pitchers like this. Very good case was yesterday with Denny Stark where the Cubs tattooed him. Stark has a very good sinker and slider which is a reason he pitches better than most in Coors. Fred McGriff is one batter that comes to mind in killing these type of pitchers. Definately a big edge to the Cubbies as far as hitting vs these type of pitchers.

Good luck Joe and good luck to you also Nickelback!

 

[Nickelback]

ndnfan,

I always try to look at games before I see the Vegas line and estimate which team I think should be favored and to what degree. So when I see Vegas favor the Astros over the Cubs in this situation after I already figured the Cubs would be favored, I certainly have to question whether I was off or if Vegas made a mistake. As we already know, Vegas doesn't make very many mistakes and certainly do not send out very many gifts! This is exactly what happened yesterday with the Cards for me. . . I thought the Mets would be a decent favorite. . . maybe 130 or so. . . but the Cards were actually the favorite.

Once again, baseball isn't my best sport to cap as I'm sure there are plently of things that I miss when I look at a particular matchup. But in my opinion, Vegas set the Astros as the favorite in order to get plenty of action on the Cubs. As I see it, the Astros have more to play for during this time of the year and a hot pitcher who has done very well his last three starts since facing the Cubs when the Astros lost by a single run.

 

[ndnfan]

nickelback....thanks for explaining.

Good luck in the games today and nice call on the Cards yesterday.

 

[gsp]

I don't believe Vegas made a mistake. The betting public likes Oswalt, especially after his last three games. Making Hou the fav just re-enforced the public perception that Oswalt should be fav. The truth is that Wood has had a lot more success with Hou than Oswalt has with the Cubs. As far as the over goes, there are 9 players on the Cubs roster with a slugging pc over 500 against Oswalt and 10 that are hitting above 333. Truth is that if everybody hit him like CC does he would be back in the minors. The betting criteria that I go by is starting to equal out. it started strong for Chi. Still, i'm waiting on the ump.

 

[gsp]

Well wouldn't you know it. Bill Welke in Pit is one of the top dog umps going and loves home dogs. Jim Joyce is at Fla and loves home fav. He is also one of the top under umps this year. Since he went over two games back I look for him to stay under tonight. I hope I'm wrong but will pass Colo and take the under. I was going to pass on Stl but this puts a whole new slant on it. Also show a lean to the over in Pit. Now I've got about 30 minutes to make up my mind.

 

[gsp]

Going with

Fla u 8
CC +100
Pit +135
Ana o 8'

I had Stl and Pit even tonight and with Welke I've just go to try it.

Good luck everyone

 

[cooz3]

good luck tonight gsp...if ya have the time..what do you see in that detroit game...i know redmans era vs. the angels isnt good and he has struggled at angels...but he strikes me as the type of pitcher that can shut down an offense and the angels bats tend to dissapear every so often...cooz

 

[wigs]

yes the betting public likes oswalt but also you have to consider that if oswalt goes 7 he turns it over to dotel and wagner which is a much more formidable duo then whoever wood would turn it over to, cubs bats got too warm in coors for me to play this one(although i would hardly compare stark and chacon to oswalt, but that is just my opinion) oswalt throws 3 pitches for strikes and locates his 93-95 fb pretty well(i'm not a stros fan)
wood has had tremendous success against the stros and is just the type of pitcher they struggle with(especially bags and biggio)i'm sure we get to see plenty of replays of his 20k game tonight ward not a 100% either right now(sore hip)
cubies vs oswalt-
alou 1-9, bellhorn 2-6 1hr 3k, gonzalez 2-9
hundley 0-5, mcgriff 4-12 1hr 3bb, sosa 4-19 1hr 9k 0bb
muller 4-15, patterson 4-13 1hr
so those lefty cub bats do have some success against him(notably mcgriff and patterson)
anyway just hope to see a good one, good luck with your plays joe, sorry this is so long ...

 

[kcwolf]

gl!

gsp, didn't like the STL game at all, but favored PIT.

Going to look at the late games.

 

[gsp]

I show Ana has the advantage with both pitchers giving up runs.

 

[kcwolf]

Agree, but haven't played Appier all year. I f you pick your spots against Appier, it is quite profitable. Tonight is not one of them, to risky taking DET, to risky taking Appier at that price.

 

[gsp]

We might have got lucky. Mark Carlson is 16-8 home teams. 4-0 home dogs +110 or less.