Mon

[gsp]

As you know, I start the day off with a quick run thru. It's not quite that quick, just a bunch of proven methods that I've used over the years. These I call my leans. Well, I did my leans this morning and had an interesting lean. A home dog that showed up with a +1 adv. Showed they could give a point and still cover. Then I come to Jack's and guess what I found. I'm on the wrong side. Must of missed something, right. So, I go back and really cap the game and come up with Char winning 99-97. As you know, I've learned my lesson. I don't fade my leans. So, at this point this has got to be a pass for me so I can pull for the guys on Minn. Here's the rest of my leans until I get a line of Mem.

Port + 2 adv and u
Char +1 adv and u (I show the game going slightly over so this will probably be a pass for me also)
GS o

The trades have made cappin Ind very hard to do at this time. The line being this low makes me think that Vegas is wanting Ind money. The truth is, that before the trades, This line at -2 would be in GS's fav, just barely.

Back after I see the Mem line.

 

[barfly]

What's up Joe?! I've been real busy lately. I'll call ya tonight after 9 my time. Take care

 

[layinwood]

GSP, Im in agreement with you on the Horets game. I have them as a 1pt. fav as well. I believe the reason youre seeing some of the guys go against them is because:

Hornets-at home versus a non-conference team that beat them in their previous same season match-up.

ATS- 0-11

Now I'm not doing anyones cappying for them but I would think this along with some other situations that go against the hornets is the main reason.

I have a few more( dont have time to post them right this second.) But there are also some situations going agains Minn here as well. Ill post them later.

good luck to you,
Layinwood

 

[hoya]

gsp, thought you would have a screwy line award for Portland today. I have them as 2-3 point favorites. The lines for Philly games seem to be off recently. I had Orlando as a few point favorite on saturday and the line was a pk. I wonder if the linesmakers and/or public still hasnt figured out that Philly is not nearly the team they were last year.

 

[#cruncher]

My numbers have me on Portland also, but the fact that Portland has won 5 straight and the fact that Philly lost their last game and, is playing at home, makes me nervous.

 

[gsp]

Hoya, a screwy line award goes for a line that makes no sense. Like last year in the final game of the season, LAL with everyone healthy went to SA with Duncan and Robinson not able to play and got 2' points. Blew a 15 point lead with 10 min to go and lost by 3 in ot. If you notice, since the all star break, I haven't given near as many screwy line awards. The further we get into the season the tighter the lines are. The one that almost qualified was Sac/Dal Sat. The line should have been Dal -4 so Vegas came out with a low line and the public bit. At Dal -2 it wasn't screwy but by gametime it was. I said Sat that it looked like Vegas was after Sac money. By this time of the year most people that are still playing the NBA have a lot of information on hand and think they are pretty good at spoting a mistake in the line. Vegas can accomplish as much by being off one way or the other by 2 points as they could when they had to be off by 5 0r 6 earlier in the season. If they are not pretty sure what will happen that line will be dead on. Really guys, they are that good. If they know what should happen, they are not above putting out a screwy line early in the season or an almost screwy line this time of year and influencing the betters in the directrion they want them to go. If you notice, I usually pass on my screwy line of the day award plays. Last year I called them my PASS plays and hit right at 90 %. Sure made me want to play them and have a few times this year. I think I have hit every one I have played. It's hard to pull the trigger when everything tells you that it's wrong. These are not contratrain plays. I don't go against the public just to be doing. Sometimes they are right.

I said last year that Mutumbo would not be the savior that everyone in Philly expected and he wasn't. I said at the start of this season that Phil hurt themselves again by picking up Coleman and they have. Phil put out feelers on both before the dead-line and guess what? They are both still in Phil.

#'s, you are right. It's pretty scary going with a team that has won 5 in a row against a team that lost their last game. Here's the problem. The only decent team that Philly has beat at home in their last 30 games is the Lakers and Chi and Mem both share that honor. I said last week that Port is playing the best ball in the NBA and I haven't seen anything this week to make me change my mind. I might not play Port but I won't be on Philly.

The line on Mem tonight looks wrong to me but is pretty close. I still like the Clips but have no numbers to back it up. I also show the over but then I look and Mem is only scoring 80 a game. The Clips are going to have to look like Dal to score enough to get that game to go over. You know what? I don't know which way to go on the game. Maybe by gametime I will.

 

[gsp]

I have just upgraded Port to my "screwy line of the day" award. At 3' instead 1' it was just public opinion and Scotty Pippin. At 4 it looks like Vegas is after Port money. The line has no justification. This was my top play of the day but I can't handle Vegas helping me. Looks like they are trying to keep me on the side-line again tonight but I'll find something. I do like the Clips. Have to decide how serious the injuries are.

 

[Antonio]

Agree 100% looks like vegas is begging for Port money. Small play on Philly tonite. I also like Gs and Char With everyone in the world on Minny why is the line sticking

 

[gsp]

If I make it thru this week there's no telling how well I'll do the rest of the week. Should pass tonight but have 4 plays that I'll take a chance on. This might me of interest. I say that i don't like Vegas helping me. Tonight might be a good test. Every line has changed during the day. The only ones that have moved against my leans are the ones I'm going to play.

Char +2' from 3
u 192 from 194
Clips - 4' from 3'
GS u 200'

i'm breaking my rule on GS u because i still think it is hard for anyone to reach 200 unless it involves Dal, Sac, Orl, or once in a while Mil. With the line movement going from 201 to 200' made up my mind to go under. GS has a habit of fading in the 4 th which won't hurt my feelings tonight.

Good luck everyone.

 

[thisisbad]

I don't know where else to put this, so i figured i would just throw it here cause GSP gets enough hits (rightly so, you are a great capper man, i love to read your picks and reasoning)

I bet Portland, and they won, but i am still shocked by Nba teams this year. Philly manages 14 points in the fourth, 4 points coming in the last minute when they were desperate. Both teams had quarters of 17 points. To me that is just sad. I have to think i could get five guys out of this forum and we could manage 20 a quarter

Seriously though, i've lost plenty of bets on teams breaking down, or their inability to score late. There have been plenty of teams who couldn't reach double digits even!! That's absurd....

And remember, i had Portland tonight, that's not the reason for the rant.

Sorry to invade your post GSP

 

[MrChristo]

Gotta agree mate.

Memphis 29 first half points against that fearsome Clipper D

I too was on Portland today (ml), but I had San Antonio v. Minni when they disappeared at half time.

Sure is making things tough :shrug:

 

[hoya]

Thats just something you gotta deal with when betting the NBA. Teams have bad quarters, bad halfs, and bad games all the time. Portland played their famous 'we can afford to lose this one' style in the first and third quarters otherwise that game wouldnt of been close. I lost on Detroit yesterday because Barry and Stackhouse couldnt make a shot if their lives depended on it. Just the way it is.

 

[theGibber1]

gsp, im with you on GS under.

i actually played the under for the 1st half 102.5. Isnt that an odd line for a game total of 200?

anyway good luck to us

 

[MrChristo]

Sorry to have 2 moans in one thread (especially not my own :nooo, but can some one help me out about Golden State home games.

I don't think I've ever seen one live, but there always seems to be an extraordinary amount of fouls.
WHY?
Is it the way they play or do they constantly get trigger happy officials? :shrug:

I may be way off the mark here, but I would think off the top of my head that G.S. home games would av. the most fouls by far??

 

[rrc]

Great night Joe.