Last thing we need is ANOTHER thread
Last thing we need is ANOTHER thread
Here's a nice writeup
In the NFL there ain't no such thing as a sure bet, but there are a few that are pretty attractive.
One of the most attractive is the home dog of 7 points or more. We've seen it four times this season, twice with the Lions and twice with the Texans. Between the two teams they are 3-1 against the spread, with two straight-up victories to show for it. If you've been playing the moneyline every time you could in this situation this year, you'd be up six or seven units on three bets (if each unit, was, say, $100).
So why am I telling you all of this?
Because tonight, in Baltimore, a team that has, in recent history, actually been a good team (and, in fact, a Super Bowl champion), is the vaunted home dog of 7 or more.
That's right. Your struggling Baltimore Ravens, winless as yet this year, having been beaten by Carolina and then destroyed at home by Tampa Bay, playing the high-powered offensive attack of Mike Shanahan and the Denver Broncos, on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 3-0. They started the year by defeating St. Louis and sending them on a downward spiral. Next, they dominated San Francisco and gave them their first loss. Finally, they came home again and beat the surprising Buffalo Bills. In three games they have scored in the mid-20s each time, and held their opponents to between 14 and 23 points. It seems like they have a recipe for winning football.
Let's look closer.
Denver's balanced offensive attack is putting up 155 yards of passing and 156 yards rushing per game. The Ravens D has still been somewhat stingy, allowing just 272 yards per game, mostly because they've been holding opposing runners to just over 100. But, this is not your older brother's Ravens defense; decimated by free agency, the team is a shell of the one that dominated the Giants in the Super Bowl two seasons ago.
Then you have the Ravens offense, against an improved Denver defense. Denver has played three of the best offenses in the NFL the first three weeks, and has allowed just 47 yards rushing per game in the first three weeks. The Ravens have not exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season; they have only one touchdown.
This game, however, will come down to individual performances. Will the Ravens be able to break a special teams or defensive play that will help support the offense? Will Jamal Lewis be able to run on a stingy Denver D? Will Brian Griese make some of the mistakes that nearly got him benched in week one? All of these questions will have our answer to the game.
But remember?no matter what?there's just something about the NFL, and there's something about home field, and there's definitely something about Monday Night.
All in all, Im hesitant to play a side here and the total number is within a FG of my mathematical numbers. Here's what I AM PLAYING in what should be a low scoring football game.
In facing a Baltimore team that has gone 0-2 and has failed to score an offensive touchdown for 20 consecutive series, the Broncos' key goals are to stop Baltimore running back Jamal Lewis and force first-year starting quarterback Chris Redman into pressure situations. I personally think that BOTH kickers are gonna have some opportunities considering that the Ravens kicker is coming off his first game in 38 without a point. With Elam on the other side, this is the strongest play for my money.
Longest FG of game OVER 41' -130 ***
Also, for the brave of heart. Keep an eye on Stokley and how they limit his snaps tonight with the banged up ankle. He's also coming off a previous knee injury and WOULD NOT START on most teams. Due to the underwhelming amount of quality receivers expect to see Johnson and Ogden getting some time at SE.
I'd play the under 4 receptions myself, however, Redman will throw a LOT of short underneath passes, and its uncertain at this time if Baltimore will roll the dice by using Stokely for that purpose.
GL
