Monday August 13th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday August 13th 2007

yesterday: 13-2-1 +18.42
August: 77-50 +40.34
ml 35-21 +17.98
rl 5-1 +4.69
totals 17-11 +3.68
parlays 20-17 +13.99
system picks 1-0 yesterday; 11-7 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-0 yesterday; 22-14 in August (61%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

(1)sf 56 (+101)+6
(2)sf 54 (-107)+2
hou 61 (+101)+11
Nyy 62 (-250)-10 balt 38 (+230)+7
Det 63 (-124)+7
Bost 52 (-170)-11 tb 48 (+162)+9
tor 65 (-114)+11 RL 50 (+140)+8
Seat 51 (+111)+3

system totals

hou@Lad un7.5 68% (+100)+18 --ump N/A
tor@Kc ov9.5 67 (-120)+12 --Holbrook is a good OVER-ump
min@Seat un7.5 70 (-120)+15 --ump N/A


Kicked some serious butt on Friday,Saturday,Sunday. Too sweet not to mention.
Closed the weekend yesterday by going 6-0 on the moneyline, 1-0 on totals, 2-2-1 on parlays and cleaned house with my IF plays, collecting winnings on all 4 of them. Gagne doesn't fvck me in the 8th and I got 17-0-1 (double-push Reds under4 with yanks over5); Bosox ml woulda given me another 3.3 units and the runline, which they had covered before Gagme, woulda been another ...ouch...I just figured it out...woulda been ANOTHER 16.8 units for me--check out my posted 13-team IF bet...the only play that I missed on it was the Bosox -1.5 (at game #7). I'm sure as hell not complaining but I've had days like that before...just kick butt but one key miss coulda doubled the (already lofty) profit.

Very small board Monday but Astros and Blue Jays look real good. Tigers look good, to me, as well. I haven't pulled the trigger on the Giants yet?I always find it difficult to pull the trigger on the Giants?might pass on both as Pitt's sticks are smokin'. Not enough value on the M's line. D'Rays haven't seen my money yet?price will only get better for them, it appears, as time goes by. I like the Safeco game under but will probably leave the other totals alone.

Will post plays, update stats and fire a bowl as the day's festivities come to a close.
I probably don't have too much else to offer (small board anyway) as I pulled an all-day'er and have not slept in more than 24 hours.
Plays were made while still coherent and will probably not be increased from where they stand.

Tuesday looks like it might hold some promise.
Even better?
I've done Wednesday?look super-Hot! That's when I'm hoping for some decent lines.

GL

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I guess I'm going to kill time until these games are done, so here we go...

ROI for system picks
-----------------------------------------------
(astros,Tigers,blue jays)
-----------------------------------------------

astros 61% (+101)+11

--Oswalt is in great form, coming off 3 straight beauties
--Billingsley good vs a month ago
--Dodgers bats stink lately...for weeks now
--Astross got a big W yesterday while Lad was shut down, again, by the Cards
--Oswalt's numbers not great at D.Stadium
--edge to both pitching and sticks here

61 x 1.01 = 61.61
39 x -1.....= -39
----------------------------
..................22.61%


Fabulous.
Will be the highest of the lot.
Looks very worthwhile.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Tigers 63% (-124)+7
(line had way moved, as I figured it would--not a system pick in the -140's, but I hopped (-124) during the game)

--Gaudin really struggling...for weeks now
--Tigers back to (really) hitting again
--Durbin a decent go as an SP
--small edge pitching
--larger edge at the dish

-124 is 80.6 cents on the dollar
63 x 0.806 = 50.778
37 x -1......= -37
---------------------------------
....................13.778%


Not bad.
Barely a system pick so this is normal.
Higher probability than the Astros but too big a reduction on the ROI; Astros look better (as a higher value indicator would suggest).
Very likely.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

blue jays 65% (-114)+11
(this one has moved too--not as much...it SHOULD move more as it looks solid)

--Jays kill lefties
--everybody kills Perez
--Litsch has been decent
--Jays the better bullpen
--Royals not hitting lately (again)

-114 is 87.7 cents on the dollar
(close to 20?)
65 x 0.877 = 57.005
35 x -1.......= -35
---------------------------------
.....................22.005%


Fantastic.
Fraction of a point higher ROI with the Astros (less than 1%), but with an 11% greater risk on the Astros.
This one looks best.
I don't think that Litsch is as good as Marcum or McGowan, but he should be good enough to keep the Royals sticks at 5 or less; I think that Toronto over 5 +105 looks sweet (+21 as a team total, and they rarely reach the 20's), so the Jays should take this one.
Best bet.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know you've got 'til it's gone

(Joni Mitchell, Big Yellow Taxi)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some of this is valuable (to me):

reprinted with permission

thanks a lot Lookn4help,

as long as it makes sense what I'm trying to do on page 1...to present probabilities for each game, then to measure it against the lines.

You can agree or disagree with the numbers but usually I think they make sense.
Been using it for years but the adjustments that I've made for this year I'm very happy with.

Still need some stats to improve but August is helping, so far.
System sides were 12-3 on Sunday (80%).
Brings August, for all games, to 105-60 (63.6% winners).
I couldn't ask for better than that for ALL games.
51's and 52's are kicking ass, for some reason (did last month too) and the only reason that I can think of is that maybe I'm picking a lot of the 50's correct--I won't post a game at 50% (min. 51) so sometimes I have to decide which side is getting the 51.

I'm going to re-post this in Monday's.
For some reason it seems interesting (the stats note, I suppose).

Fire away!

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

System even picked 6 dogs yesterday and went 4-2 on them (Nats,Pirates,Rockies,M's).

System picks back in play today, with a vengeance, after being mostly absent for the past few days (hasn't stopped me now, has it?).

That Jays total over (5 +105) sure looks sweet, but I'm heavily into the Jays, and not in any condition to risk money, so I think I'm holding at 4 plays for Monday.
D'Rays look worth a shot but I'd rather try my 60's calls and leave a 48%'er alone.
I'll like the D'Rays much better tomorrow; Kazmir vs Lester.
Love anything up to -120.
D'Rays score 5 or more off Wakefield and Bosox score 3 or less (again) off of Shields & pen and I'll love it at up to -130.
Can't see it being higher than that.
Near even money and I mortgage my sundial.

Will post what's played...eventually...

Texas game is finally final and I didn't jinx myself by assuming the win (and runline) at 7-0 or 8-1 or whatever it was going to the 8th.
Put 4 runlines to head off IF plays and all 4 came in (Phillies...fluke city, Mets...Vanden Hurting, Tigers...get 'em while they're cheap, and Rangers...no contest but what a fluke with Gabbard lasting 1.00369 innings (or whatever it was).

Friday I thought that things couldn't get any better than that (cleared 11u).
I was wrong.
Happily.


You've got to be happy with what you've got to be happy with

(King Crimson, YGTBHWWYGTBHW)


:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Astros price is only getting better.

I coulda had +104 had I waited.

Not on my other 2:
--Tigers go from -124 to -145
--Jays go from -114 to -121...not as bad there...still lots of value on this puppy, I figure


The way things are going I can't wait to see fresh lines.
Got some possible goodies for Tuesday, but like I mentioned,
Wednesday looks potentially real special...I might tackle the board with lots of IF action the way I'm nailin' 'em right now.

Going to enjoy it while it lasts.

Hopin' I could catch some more movement on the D'Rays line, but nothing happening. Still not enough for me, despite the juicy payout, to try a probability less than 50%...I'll try a decent 2-team parlay better than to try such a longshot.
No parlays todaze.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

system picks

astros +101 3/3.03
Tigers -124 3.72/3
blue jays -114 3.42/3

totals

min@Seat un7.5 -120 1.8/1.5


Stickin' with what looks best.
No foolin' around today.

GL

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck EX. Like the sides alot.

 

[jer-z jock]

Thanks for YESTERDAY

Thanks for YESTERDAY

Extra-- just wanted to say thanks, I read your post DAILY and FAITHFULLY and ENJOY all your write-ups and really appreciate the EFFORTS and WORK. I usually just read and lurk but I MUST say a special thanks today as you SAVED a dear friend of mines A$$. Along with pocketing a lil' more then a few dollars for myself. If it helps or boosts your reasons for posting I'll mention YOUR post allowed for a fella to hit 2 MAJOR 3 TEAM parlays (needed the odds for short money up to gain long money back...1 parlay for $500 paid $3579 and another for $300 paid 1846)thus saving his bankroll and prolonging his MLB season, he learned his lesson in two ways:
1. IF YOU CANT CAP DON'T GUESS GAMES
2. DON'T BET ABOVE YOUR HEAD.....
So again my thanks to you as you've inticed him to visit/here and to READ YOUR POST!! AMAZING DAY ONCE AGAIN!!!!!:00hour

PS- This season for me (thru your efforts) has been my BEST EVER!!!:weed: ENJOY!!

1. 42136416-1 8/12/2007 Parlay 3,263.00 Baseball - 957 Milwaukee Brewers/Houston Astros over 9? -120 for Game
Baseball - 976 Los Angeles Angels -1? +115 for Game
Baseball - 977 Toronto Blue Jays/Kansas City Royals under 8? -110 for Game :mj07:

2. 42138866-1 8/12/2007 Parlay 1,552.00 Baseball - 955 Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies under 11 -115 for Game
Baseball - 965 Washington Nationals/Arizona Diamondbacks over 9? -105 for Game
Baseball - 977 Toronto Blue Jays/Kansas City Royals under 8? -110 for Game :mj07:

 

[DoMyDermBest]

nice run. like them all xcept Oswalt on the road. Then again, he is pithing against the hapless nonhitting Doggers

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot guys

cheers me up quite a bit

I'm taking my lumps, today

Jays can't hit a soft lefty.
(Jays have left 7 men on; they're 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position)
Gaudin gets back on track against a hot-hitting team.
Could sure use an Astros victory,
or AT LEAST the under at Safeco.
Sure as fvck don't want to be shut out today
(very well could happen, though)

I kinda like Tuesday's board so it's rebound time (again)

Really like Wednesday's but they refuse to put up the numbers yet!

See you with Tuesday's sometime after the Jays nightmare is over.

 

[ESPNTED]

EX i read your post every nite & morning . Love your opinion on the game. There will be days win & lose. Team you think will lose win & vice vera. Keep up the great work on your predicting & stat on the game.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks ESPNTED,

Playing every day, as I do,
provides me lots of opportunity to lose.

Was bound to happen.

Just don't want to be shut out, today.

My apologies to any who blindly followed...
...hopefully you were on me for Fri,Sat,Sun, as well.

Tuesday looks good.
Wednesday looks better.

Lookin to make August my best month, yet (was +50 units for May), so I'm lookin' for a beautiful week to happen.

Will have Tuesday's numbers up within 60 seconds.

:SIB

 

[Love is Love]

As a person who doesn't cap baseball at all...but with no football, needs to keep action coming in..I try to gather as much info as possible from as many sources as possible..and I definitely put your posts at the top of that list..just felt like adding to the praise..

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hendrix Bless You, Love is Love

Most of this info is crammed into my cranium anyway, with the rest available at my fingertips,
and it helps me, too, to get it typed out where I can analyze things a little clearer.

I'm having a lot of fun at MJ's this season.

Losing's gets to be a drag, when it happens, but it comes with the territory.
Just gotta avoid those bad streaks.
That's my mission for Tuesday.

:weed: