I am going back to flat betting and will be keeping a detailed record on this site from here on out. I hit some monster parlays at the end of April and beginning of May and I got greedy swinging for the fences a third straight week and gave some of my winnings back last week. I do not want to go backwards anymore and realize that parlays can bring home a nice profit but straight wagers are how to stay in the game for good. I do not want to be a flash in the pan and have to leave this board before the All Star Break, I really like it here and want to stick around for as long as possible. I think there is real opportunity with wagering on sports if you manage your money, something I have never really done in the past. Lastly I just want to say thanks to all the great cappers on this site who have allowed me to build up a substantial bankroll which is putting me in a position to bet smarter and hopefully win over the long haul. I will post my picks for today in a bit.
Monday Baseball
- Thread starter CherryPicker
- Start date
you just summed up the past year for me in that paragraph. im glad somebody else wrote it so that i dont think im crazy. good luck, and lets do this!
Straight Wager YTD Record 0-0 (+/-0.00)
First Play:
CWS ML 2.56/2
Tough to pass up Garcia at this small number, he has not allowed more than 3 runs since his opener and is undefeated on the road so far in this young season. You have to think the Twins are a bit shell shocked after scoring 7 runs in the first last night and then not scoring again for the whole game. I mean what do you tell yourself if you are a Twins player right now, we have to score 8, 10, 12 runs to beat this team and then not give up any?
Small par: CWS/CWS Un9 50 to win 124 Hoping for another solid outing from Garcia and can't see White Sox scoring more than 4-5 runs in this quick turnaround game.
First Play:
CWS ML 2.56/2
Tough to pass up Garcia at this small number, he has not allowed more than 3 runs since his opener and is undefeated on the road so far in this young season. You have to think the Twins are a bit shell shocked after scoring 7 runs in the first last night and then not scoring again for the whole game. I mean what do you tell yourself if you are a Twins player right now, we have to score 8, 10, 12 runs to beat this team and then not give up any?
Small par: CWS/CWS Un9 50 to win 124 Hoping for another solid outing from Garcia and can't see White Sox scoring more than 4-5 runs in this quick turnaround game.
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Whatever you're doing, keep doing it! I want a nice comfortable lead when I take over in the 6th. :brows:
Here are my leans for the night games, have to narrow them down:
TEX, BAL, BAL Ov, HOU, HOU Un, FLA, SDG, CLE, COL, COL Un
:com: That is a lot of games, really need to pair it down.
TEX, BAL, BAL Ov, HOU, HOU Un, FLA, SDG, CLE, COL, COL Un
:com: That is a lot of games, really need to pair it down.
Second Play:
ATL Ov9 2.40/2
Over is 5-0-0 in Braves last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 8-1-0 in Braves last 9 overall.
Over is 7-1-0 in Braves last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-1-0 in Braves last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-1-0 in Braves last 6 night games.
Over is 6-0-0 in Davies' last 6 starts as a home favorite.
Over is 5-0-0 in Davies' last 5 home starts.
Over is 7-0-0 in Davies' last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-0-0 in Davies' last 8 starts as a favorite.
Over is 4-0-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-0-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 10-1-0 in Davies' last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 14-3-0 in Davies' last 17 starts overall.
Over is 12-3-0 in Davies' last 15 night starts.
Over is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 6-0-0 in Marlins last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-1-0 in Marlins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-1-0 in Marlins last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-1-0 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1-0 in Marlins last 6 road games.
Over is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 20-6-2 in Marlins last 28 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
ATL Ov9 2.40/2
Over is 5-0-0 in Braves last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 8-1-0 in Braves last 9 overall.
Over is 7-1-0 in Braves last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-1-0 in Braves last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-1-0 in Braves last 6 night games.
Over is 6-0-0 in Davies' last 6 starts as a home favorite.
Over is 5-0-0 in Davies' last 5 home starts.
Over is 7-0-0 in Davies' last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-0-0 in Davies' last 8 starts as a favorite.
Over is 4-0-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-0-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 10-1-0 in Davies' last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 14-3-0 in Davies' last 17 starts overall.
Over is 12-3-0 in Davies' last 15 night starts.
Over is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 6-0-0 in Marlins last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-1-0 in Marlins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-1-0 in Marlins last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-1-0 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1-0 in Marlins last 6 road games.
Over is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 20-6-2 in Marlins last 28 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Third Play:
HOU ML 3.08/2
The Astros have the best record at home and the Giants do not play well on the road. Bonds is doubtful for the game (not that it really matters) but what I like is the Astros are 8-1 with the total set at 9-9.5. I will chase this series if I have to but I feel pretty confident that Houston will pull out the victory tonight with the hard throwing rookie right hander on the hill.
HOU ML 3.08/2
The Astros have the best record at home and the Giants do not play well on the road. Bonds is doubtful for the game (not that it really matters) but what I like is the Astros are 8-1 with the total set at 9-9.5. I will chase this series if I have to but I feel pretty confident that Houston will pull out the victory tonight with the hard throwing rookie right hander on the hill.
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Fourth Play:
TEX ML 2/3.08
Enter my first contestant in Trolln's Dog Contest, the Texas Strangers. Although they are no strangers to losing in the Bronx the Yankees as duly noted have yet to beat a RHP at night and I look for that trend to continue when they face Kevin Millwood tonight, who I expect will bounce back nicely after a horrible last outing against the Twins. Texas is 6-1 when the total is set at 9-9.5 so again I hope that is a good indicator of who takes the side tonight. The Yankees have some lineup issues and with Texas coming in nice and rested I am going to take a shot with the visting team here.
TEX ML 2/3.08
Enter my first contestant in Trolln's Dog Contest, the Texas Strangers. Although they are no strangers to losing in the Bronx the Yankees as duly noted have yet to beat a RHP at night and I look for that trend to continue when they face Kevin Millwood tonight, who I expect will bounce back nicely after a horrible last outing against the Twins. Texas is 6-1 when the total is set at 9-9.5 so again I hope that is a good indicator of who takes the side tonight. The Yankees have some lineup issues and with Texas coming in nice and rested I am going to take a shot with the visting team here.
love the bravos and houston picks. cant ride with you on the yanks pick though because as much as i cant stand the way theyre playing now. i cant bet against them. good luck though- were looking good on the chi sox too. 1
Dante I know what you mean, it is tough for me to bet against the Red Sox. FWIW I think the Yankees are gonna start a slide soon with RJ in the old age home and two big bats banged up.
Well looks like +1.50 in units during the day with the White Sox coming in and the par w/ the under losing of course. Good Luck tonight everyone!
