Monday Bowl Games

Smitty

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First, a word to the wise. Fade these plays. i think i've started the new year with a good day of bowl games roughly once in the last 10 years.

Outback Bowl

iowa (ML) 3 units to win 3.3. most of my bets tend to be against a team more than they are on a team. and i'm betting against florida today. looking at their schedule, they have one good win on the year. the win at lsu is very impressive, but that's the only one. since the 3rd game of the season (i'll skip routs of umass, kentucky, and north texas), they have only scored more than 24 points twice. once in a loss to tennessee and the other when they put up 40 on missouri. this team can't score. iowa really turned things around with that win over michigan. including that game, they gave up a TOTAL of 23 points their last 3 games. florida qbs have thrown 16 tds and 13 INTs this season. desmond king must be chomping at the bit to start this game. so, you say, florida must be able to run the ball. nope. they are 113th in the country, gaining 130 yards/game on the ground. they are, to say the least, offensively challenged. now, on the other side of the ball, iowa ain't exactly lighting it up. but i'll take cj beathard over whoever the gators are starting at qb. this is going to be an old fashioned slugfest, and i'll take the more motivated hawkeyes. i say they get a safety the first play of the game, and it holds up. final score, 2-0.
 

Smitty

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Cotton Bowl

Cotton Bowl

western michigan (+8) 3 units.
wmu (ML) 2 units to win 5.2. frankly, i haven't been impressed with wisconsin all year. don't get me wrong - the defense is solid. but i really think they'll struggle to score, even against western michigan. i think terrell can do enough to take a little pressure off franklin. and if they can loosen up that defense to give franklin just a little bit of running room.... i love western mich's chances of winning this game.

on the other side of the ball... western's michigan's run defense has been poor all year. but today, they are not facing an explosive mac offense.* they are facing one-dimensional wisconsin. they'll be able to put 14 in the box (yes, i'm expecting them to blatantly cheat) and stop the run.

ok, this is a bad matchup for wmu. they just don't match up physically with wisconsin. but i've seen highly motivated defenses step up to shut down one-dimensional offenses before. and i'd love to see it again today.

*only partly joking. :)
 

ejthree

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western michigan (+8) 3 units.
wmu (ML) 2 units to win 5.2. frankly, i haven't been impressed with wisconsin all year. don't get me wrong - the defense is solid. but i really think they'll struggle to score, even against western michigan. i think terrell can do enough to take a little pressure off franklin. and if they can loosen up that defense to give franklin just a little bit of running room.... i love western mich's chances of winning this game.

on the other side of the ball... western's michigan's run defense has been poor all year. but today, they are not facing an explosive mac offense.* they are facing one-dimensional wisconsin. they'll be able to put 14 in the box (yes, i'm expecting them to blatantly cheat) and stop the run.

ok, this is a bad matchup for wmu. they just don't match up physically with wisconsin. but i've seen highly motivated defenses step up to shut down one-dimensional offenses before. and i'd love to see it again today.

*only partly joking. :)

I'm all over this like bark on a tree...Love this play and GL today....
 

Smitty

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Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

usc (-7) 2 units. other than alabama, i think usc may be the best team in the country right now. yes, including clemson, although they may change my opinion 7 days from now. often in games like this, it comes down to who can run the ball. and while both defenses are nearly identical in yards/rush, usc's offense is averaging nearly a full yard more per rush than psu. i fell like they may dominate this game on both sides of the ball. looking at the line on the game... it makes no sense according to the computers. per sagarin, even if you give usc a full 3 points for home field, they shouldn't be favored by more than 2. and yet this line hasn't budged off of 7. in fact, i'm starting to see some 7.5's popping up. everything points to usc rolling today.
 

Smitty

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Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

auburn (ML) 3 units to win 3.3. bob stoops is 2-6 in "new year's six" bowl games. on paper, malzahn doesn't have the weapons to exploit oklahoma's porous defense that gives up 30 points/game (granted, that's against big 12 offenses). but i think he'll figure something out. and, speaking of defense, auburn's only allows 15.6/game, which is 5th in the country. that's going to be the difference.
 
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