MONDAY GEM.. TENN +3

[nyraider]

the world is on green bay, yet the line is still 3..???????

love tenn tonight

10 unit play

TENN +3

PLAYING PARLEY WITH THE UNDER 44

GOOD LUCK DAN!!!!!!

 

[pirate fan]

I know, I woke up thinking GB and over but something as been telling me to go the other way all day. :shrug: I'm going Tenn and under to, even though I don't want to. Trusting that feeling.

 

[DblBogey]

Green Bay looks so Juicy, then you see how many are on it and the line doesn't move!! Tenn has to be the play. I thought this yesterday about Oakland, Bills and St Louis too -- 2 out of 3 ain't bad-- unfortunately bet larger on Oakland.

I am with you. Just haven't figured out for how much yet.

Good Luck!!

 

[Rebel21]

I've alwasy been interested by the statements about public plays and stuff such as that. Can you not just analyze a game and pick the winner for yourself? I mean people say that the "public" is usually wrong, but on a game to game basis, how could anyone justify playing that way?

For instance, yesterday Indy was a public play, but Indy is a better team than Oakland, they have an explosive offense, and they are at home. Public play or not, Indy is the right play in my opinion. Now i'm not saying i've never been wrong, but on a game to game basis, who cares about the public. Try to pick the winner and bet it, right?

 

[DblBogey]

I get what you are saying Reb,

The Indy line should have been 12 to 14 in my opinion.

but Vegas sets these lines and money coming in on one side should move them a little if you believe they want to split the action. When money pours in on one side and the line doesn't move -- hmmmmmmmm?

I probably over analyze this crap -- but betting against the public seems to work for some. I use this type of info for part of my capping.

Good Luck with your plays

 

[BigSlick]

I've always been a little troubled by cappers that claim Vegas won't move the line despite the fact that highly unequal amounts of money is going to one side rather than the other - its a good conspiracy theory, but it just doesn't make any sense.

Oddssmakers are risk adverse - they do not care who wins so long as the optimum amounts are equal on both sides. An oddsmaker with independent thought WONT BE IN BUSINESS VERY LONG.

I'd believe the movements of the lines before I put any credence in these websites that claim to divulge which side has more money it than the other.

Anyway, my 2 cents...

 

[treynolds]

it moved
now 3.5

 

[Hack]

Tenn,DEAD LAST against the run.

Food for thought.

Wager away folks against that stat!!!!!!!

 

[jmizeus]

line maybe not moving but i see the juice moving, depends on what books you look at? good luck tonite

 

[cavy1]

Thanks for the heads up on Tenn


cavy1

 

[MrChristo]

Oddssmakers are risk adverse - they do not care who wins so long as the optimum amounts are equal on both sides. An oddsmaker with independent thought WONT BE IN BUSINESS VERY LONG.

Anyway, my 2 cents...

Couple of different ways to look at it.

When the line is on a key number and the books move the juice rather than the line itself, you can (I believe) assume they still want $$ on the fav...but are minimising the pay-out if the fav gets up.

Also, if (for example) 70% of people are on a side, and the line doesn't budge, you can also pretty much assume that some BIG $$ is coming in for the other side.
The BIG $$ doesn't come from your average Jo sitting in a sportsbook.

 

[arrow]

Give credit to MrChristo he's not right often,lol, but he is dead on with both of these statements. You all will take allot of the guess work out once you understand what vegas is doing with the lines and why. Many traps and years of experience to really be sharp at it. And even when you think your sharp, you still will get surprised now and then. Good luck though!!!!!!!!!

 

[nyraider]

HOPE I TALKED YOU INTO TENN TONIGHT, EASY WINNER 10 UNITS YES!

 

[MrChristo]

Give credit to MrChristo he's not right often,lol, but he is dead on with both of these statements. You all will take allot of the guess work out once you understand what vegas is doing with the lines and why. Many traps and years of experience to really be sharp at it. And even when you think your sharp, you still will get surprised now and then. Good luck though!!!!!!!!!

And how was that GB running attack tonight, arrow? Did Green get his 100? :moon:

:142lmao: :142lmao: Just messin' about!! I'm not starting this again!!

btw, nice easy hit with the over :drinky:

 

[trolln4walii]

Congrats Raider :clap: Great call on Tenn.