Monday hoops

[MrChristo]

2004: 27-19-2

I don't seem to have much 'luck' when it comes to totals, but this one does seem a bit high.

Denver @ Memphis under 198.5

League: 13-3 (Av. loss 2.2) away 5+ dog, 1 day off 10+ ats loss as away 4- dog. [Denv] (3-0 this season)
but...5-11 under (av. 189.7 in that spot)

(Memphis in a 9-3 situation, av. win 14.9! so scaring me off Denver)

Last meeting @ memphis was 106-88, but memphis shot 55.4%.
In fact the last 12 meetings have gone under this number.
The last 5 meetings @ Memphis have gone under this no. @ 186.6 ppg.
Only TWO games in the last 20 meetings @ Memphis (and Vancouver) since 1996 have gone over this number!

Denver are 3-8 this season when total 195-200, and are 10-17 away.
Memphis are 4-10 under after 3+ straight wins this season.

I think the total is inflated due to both teams recent match-ups.
Although Denver are 1-6 under in their last 7 road games, I think the scores have still inflated this total!
Before Miami when they totalled only 178, they played @.....
Orlando (League worst in FGA % and points allowed)
Portland (3rd worst for FGA%, and 3rd best for FG%)
Sactown (League best for FG%, 3FG%, scoring, 5th worst FGA% and scoring allowed!)
GS (League worst 3FGA% and 8th worst FGA%)
Dallas (4th worst for FGA%, 4th best FG%, 2nd worst Scoring allowed, 2nd best scoring!)

Long winded, I know!, but in short before Miami, Denver played 5 of the bottom 8 for FGA%! (Memphis are 16th)....3 of the worst 5 for points allowed (Memph 15th).....AND 4 of the top 6 teams for FG%!!!! Point is.....
They still only averaged 200.8 ppg in those 5 games...197 if we include Miami.

Also, on the flip side.....Memph last 5 home games have been v.....
Phoenix (6th worst for points allowed)
Dallas
Clippers (4th worst points allowed, 2nd worst FGA%)
Bucks (in top 10 for scoring, FG%, 3FG% and points allowed)
and GS.
Again, Memphis have averaged 'only' 199.8 ppg in these 5 home games.

As I said I'm not that flash at totals, but pretty happy with this one.

Good Luck all

 

[wareagle]

Keep up the good work!

 

[THE ONLY ONE]

Good Luck MC

 

[jmizeus]

good luck tonite mr.c

 

[ajoytoy]

gl Mr. C!

 

[gsp]

Thought I would point a couple of things out for your consideration. First of all everything you point out is correct. This game also caps under by about 5 or more points. That always makes me leary. I have two situations that fit this game. One is 4-0 on the year and the other is 8-1 on the year. Both call for the over. People don't seem to realize that Mem is tied with Ind as the winningest team in the NBA since the first of the year. Their only loss in their last 9 games was in Den where they allowed Den to slow the pace. I don't think Hubie will let that happen in this game. Three of their 5 loses since the first of the year was a three game period where they were held below 80 points. Look for Hublie to try and make this an up tempo game. Also this is the last game on this road trip for Den. Young teams tend to fluff-off on d the last night of a road trip. Good luck.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys.

Thanks guys.

Your points are well taken gsp, and those 2 situations sure worry me.
I DO like the fact the total has dropped a full couple of points tho

Yep, Memphis are playing some good ball right now, but also doing it on the defensive end. Since their 'streak' started on Jan 1, they allowed 100+ in 4 of the first 5 games (3 on the road), but since then have allowed 100+ only 3 times, and not once over 102. (At an av. of 90.8ppg).

The only way I see this one going over is, as you say, Denver don't play D, in which case the Grizz win in a romp.

Still like the under, but I think you've talked me into playing Memph -5.5.
Really don't think -5.5 and the under will go 0-2.

Here's hoping for 197 or 198 tonight! :toast: