Monday July 16th 2007
yesterday: 5-7 -1.03
July: 60-59 -2.65
ml 34-28 +0.22
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 15-17 -4.41
parlays 9-10 +2.04
system picks still 17-8 in July (68%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 17-18 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Fla 52% (-110)-1
Atl 54 (-167)-9 cin 46 (+159)+7
Pitt 51 (+101)+1
hou 58 (-112)+5
Cubs 58 (-135)even
Mil 63 (-145)+3
mets 57 (+100)+7
Lad 67 (-139)+8 RL 52 (+156)+12
Clev 60 (-174)-4
Bost 56 (-162)-6 kc 44 (+154)+4
Nyy 51 (-145)-9 tor 49 (+141)+7
Seat 56 (-135)-2
tex 57 (Wright-Komine)
system totals
stl@Fla ov9 66% (-115)+12
ariz@Mil ov9 68 (-105)+16
cws@Clev ov9.5 67 (-120)+12
tor@Nyy ov10.5 77 (-110)+24
(((tor@Nyy ov10 82 (-126)+26)))
Rough day. Checking the scores at around 10 pm and needed at least one of the Giants or D'Backs to come in to keep me out of the negative for Sunday. D'Backs bats are trying to make the Padres (bats) look good, these days?0 off of a slumping Germano?pathetic. Giants are looking like a dangerous place to put your (my) money right now as well. I think I commented yesterday that most of my action was looking to be pretty dubious. At least I didn't get smoked. 2-0 on my totals helped a lot. System sides went 9-6 Sunday?another solid performance despite missing the big number (Bosox). I need to update a few days (3 now) worth of stats and then I'll post them?pretty solid for July, though totals are slipping. I should be up this month. Can I have some remedy?
Lotsa 50's today like I anticipated. Reds might have a shot with Livingston, though the Braves are pretty hot right now; Davies is susceptible to pounding so maybe the Reds can produce more at Turner than they did at Shea. The other lower calls are all turn-offs. Astros might be worth a shot as they're doing their best work against lefties (OPS vs L .793 while vs R it's only .726); mind you, they're only 30% winners on the road to lefties; Nats only 34% winners at home to righties, and Woody has looked much better for his past 3 or 4; Astros were swept but did score 6 Sunday. Mets I'm also considering; they do their best work vs lefties, too, but I've been burned a few times this season while playing starting pitcher's coming off the DL; Padres Wells' has been decent lately, and the Padres did just beat Webb, on the road, so I don't know if they'll find Sosa all that difficult; I still think that there's some value at even money. Only three 60's on board today, and the Indians don't appear to have any value. Brewers I'm still considering; Owings has really tanked and Bush has been decent; I'm not a big Bush supporter (of ANY Bush) so my play would be small; D'Backs look to be a solid fade the past month or so. That leaves just the biggest number on board?the Dodgers; if the Phillies had cruised again yesterday then I would be hesitant, but I think that Wainwright showed that a decent performance from a righty can keep them quiet; Moyer has really struggled lately, and the Dodgers are beating lefties at 67% this season (58% at home); Dodgers had a relatively easy time in San Fran and just beat a more reliable lefty in Lowry; huge edge to Dodgers in the bullpen, a big edge to the SP (Penny has beaten Philly twice this season already, once at home and one on the road), and I've got the bats about even for this matchup as the Dodgers are hitting .287 vs lefties (OPS .779) while Philly hits .281 vs righties (OPS .802); Philly hits .274 vs righties on the road while Lad hits .295 vs lefties at home; finally, last 10 has Philly hitting .319 vs righties while Lad has hit .326 vs lefties; bottom line (for the offense) is that Philly much prefers hitting at home while the Dodgers, surprisingly, hit better at home than on the road?surprising because they play in a pitcher's park; the pitching (starter AND bullpen) is almost the entire edge; 2% of the call (really 4%, as 52-48 is a 4-point edge) is for home field. I'm trying to find some numbers for TEAMS ON THE ROAD IN THE FIRST GAME OF A SERIES (preferrably with records for game #2, #3 etc?another site has records by game of a series, but their splits are only for "after a win" and "after a loss". It makes sense to me that a visitor should be penalized more for game #1 in a series than for the rest of the series; first there's the travel then there's the getting comfortable in your surroundings factor; I dunno?the final game of a series might have similar psychological effects depending on where the team is travelling to next; I'm still guessing that road teams do worse in game #1 of a series; I'd be interested to see some stats to confirm or refute this.
Like I mentioned briefly yesterday, I thought that today's board had a lot of over-looking games. All 4 of the system totals today are overs?I don't think there's been this many overs on a single day yet. 6 out of 9 of the remaining games are also over-calls, just not high enough to be system totals. I'd stick with what's posted above, myself. Got burned on a nice looking over in Florida yesterday, but this one still might be worth a shot as it's the Cards in town as opposed to the Nats; Cards big outburst Sunday might carry over with them?Kim is tough to back, though he's been decent lately?not decent enough to lower that home era of 6.33 (it's BB's?this guy walks everybody); Kim's career era vs the Cards is 5.28; Looper's era in 16 appearances vs the Fish is 7.63?his era over his last 8 starts is 7.52; 9 is a totally fair number, here; and I'll likely try a piece. D'Backs are hitting kinda poorly right now to play their games over?Brewers over 5, sitting currently at a nice +115, looks better. Indians didn't exactly mash the Royals pitching, and a lefty-lefty matchup might keep this one reasonable; Danks and Lee both capable of the odd gem, the past month or so; my only interest here is to see if the system hits it. For the Jays-Yanks total I am all over the over; I think I've only had one other over rated so high, at Ameriquest, and that one easily went over. I just wish I had more on that Yanks game over yesterday?didn't I say that I liked the Yankees over the 6 more than I liked them to win by 2?...Gotta be right some of the time?
Will post picks before crashing.
GL
yesterday: 5-7 -1.03
July: 60-59 -2.65
ml 34-28 +0.22
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 15-17 -4.41
parlays 9-10 +2.04
system picks still 17-8 in July (68%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 17-18 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Fla 52% (-110)-1
Atl 54 (-167)-9 cin 46 (+159)+7
Pitt 51 (+101)+1
hou 58 (-112)+5
Cubs 58 (-135)even
Mil 63 (-145)+3
mets 57 (+100)+7
Lad 67 (-139)+8 RL 52 (+156)+12
Clev 60 (-174)-4
Bost 56 (-162)-6 kc 44 (+154)+4
Nyy 51 (-145)-9 tor 49 (+141)+7
Seat 56 (-135)-2
tex 57 (Wright-Komine)
system totals
stl@Fla ov9 66% (-115)+12
ariz@Mil ov9 68 (-105)+16
cws@Clev ov9.5 67 (-120)+12
tor@Nyy ov10.5 77 (-110)+24
(((tor@Nyy ov10 82 (-126)+26)))
Rough day. Checking the scores at around 10 pm and needed at least one of the Giants or D'Backs to come in to keep me out of the negative for Sunday. D'Backs bats are trying to make the Padres (bats) look good, these days?0 off of a slumping Germano?pathetic. Giants are looking like a dangerous place to put your (my) money right now as well. I think I commented yesterday that most of my action was looking to be pretty dubious. At least I didn't get smoked. 2-0 on my totals helped a lot. System sides went 9-6 Sunday?another solid performance despite missing the big number (Bosox). I need to update a few days (3 now) worth of stats and then I'll post them?pretty solid for July, though totals are slipping. I should be up this month. Can I have some remedy?
Lotsa 50's today like I anticipated. Reds might have a shot with Livingston, though the Braves are pretty hot right now; Davies is susceptible to pounding so maybe the Reds can produce more at Turner than they did at Shea. The other lower calls are all turn-offs. Astros might be worth a shot as they're doing their best work against lefties (OPS vs L .793 while vs R it's only .726); mind you, they're only 30% winners on the road to lefties; Nats only 34% winners at home to righties, and Woody has looked much better for his past 3 or 4; Astros were swept but did score 6 Sunday. Mets I'm also considering; they do their best work vs lefties, too, but I've been burned a few times this season while playing starting pitcher's coming off the DL; Padres Wells' has been decent lately, and the Padres did just beat Webb, on the road, so I don't know if they'll find Sosa all that difficult; I still think that there's some value at even money. Only three 60's on board today, and the Indians don't appear to have any value. Brewers I'm still considering; Owings has really tanked and Bush has been decent; I'm not a big Bush supporter (of ANY Bush) so my play would be small; D'Backs look to be a solid fade the past month or so. That leaves just the biggest number on board?the Dodgers; if the Phillies had cruised again yesterday then I would be hesitant, but I think that Wainwright showed that a decent performance from a righty can keep them quiet; Moyer has really struggled lately, and the Dodgers are beating lefties at 67% this season (58% at home); Dodgers had a relatively easy time in San Fran and just beat a more reliable lefty in Lowry; huge edge to Dodgers in the bullpen, a big edge to the SP (Penny has beaten Philly twice this season already, once at home and one on the road), and I've got the bats about even for this matchup as the Dodgers are hitting .287 vs lefties (OPS .779) while Philly hits .281 vs righties (OPS .802); Philly hits .274 vs righties on the road while Lad hits .295 vs lefties at home; finally, last 10 has Philly hitting .319 vs righties while Lad has hit .326 vs lefties; bottom line (for the offense) is that Philly much prefers hitting at home while the Dodgers, surprisingly, hit better at home than on the road?surprising because they play in a pitcher's park; the pitching (starter AND bullpen) is almost the entire edge; 2% of the call (really 4%, as 52-48 is a 4-point edge) is for home field. I'm trying to find some numbers for TEAMS ON THE ROAD IN THE FIRST GAME OF A SERIES (preferrably with records for game #2, #3 etc?another site has records by game of a series, but their splits are only for "after a win" and "after a loss". It makes sense to me that a visitor should be penalized more for game #1 in a series than for the rest of the series; first there's the travel then there's the getting comfortable in your surroundings factor; I dunno?the final game of a series might have similar psychological effects depending on where the team is travelling to next; I'm still guessing that road teams do worse in game #1 of a series; I'd be interested to see some stats to confirm or refute this.
Like I mentioned briefly yesterday, I thought that today's board had a lot of over-looking games. All 4 of the system totals today are overs?I don't think there's been this many overs on a single day yet. 6 out of 9 of the remaining games are also over-calls, just not high enough to be system totals. I'd stick with what's posted above, myself. Got burned on a nice looking over in Florida yesterday, but this one still might be worth a shot as it's the Cards in town as opposed to the Nats; Cards big outburst Sunday might carry over with them?Kim is tough to back, though he's been decent lately?not decent enough to lower that home era of 6.33 (it's BB's?this guy walks everybody); Kim's career era vs the Cards is 5.28; Looper's era in 16 appearances vs the Fish is 7.63?his era over his last 8 starts is 7.52; 9 is a totally fair number, here; and I'll likely try a piece. D'Backs are hitting kinda poorly right now to play their games over?Brewers over 5, sitting currently at a nice +115, looks better. Indians didn't exactly mash the Royals pitching, and a lefty-lefty matchup might keep this one reasonable; Danks and Lee both capable of the odd gem, the past month or so; my only interest here is to see if the system hits it. For the Jays-Yanks total I am all over the over; I think I've only had one other over rated so high, at Ameriquest, and that one easily went over. I just wish I had more on that Yanks game over yesterday?didn't I say that I liked the Yankees over the 6 more than I liked them to win by 2?...Gotta be right some of the time?
Will post picks before crashing.
GL
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