Monday July 23rd 2007
yesterday: 3-4 -2.34
July: 90-97 -2.77
ml 53-43 +2.68
rl 4-5 +2.87
totals 18-21 -6.14
parlays 15-28 -2.18
system picks 2-2 yesterday; 27-16 in July (63%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
(Mets were a system pick)
system totals 3-0-1 yesterday; 29-32 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Cin 55% (-115)+1
lad 56 (-110)+3
Col 59 (-134)+1
fla 54 (+117)+7
atl 62 (-111)+9
Clev 56 (-130)-1
min 53 (-145)-7 tor 47 (+137)+4
det 57 (+102)+7
nyy 72 (-169)+9 RL 59 (-109)+6
Tex 62 (-120)+7
Laa 58 (-132)+1
system totals
lad@Hou ov9 69% (-107)+17 --ump N/A
fla@Ariz ov10 67 (+115)+20 --ump N/A
also-ran totals
sd@Col un10 48% (-120)-7 (both clubs were shutout Sunday, Maddux is coming off a great game, and Francis, of course, is a good pitcher, despite poor career numbers vs Padres; might go against the system here)
atl@Sf un8 57% (-116)+3 (I've had Smoltz rated higher than I currently have him for only one start this season?he's looking great?he's 11-15, 4.19 era vs the Giants in his career but he should quiet the Giants bats some after their outburst at Miller Park?Giants OPS at home only .689 (ASB); Cain has not looked great lately, but I think he might calm the Braves bats as they're playing a late one at Turner before travelling out west, not to mention the fact that they didn't produce much against righty Thompson Sunday; might try this one, too)
bost@Clev ov11 62% (+106)+13 (close to a system total, but the high number keeps it out; impossible to say what Lester will have?I'm sure he'll be dying to impress the Bosox staff, but he's nothing special, so far?B grade pitcher at best; Westbrook's era is up over 6. and he's had an era of at least 4.50 for each of his past 3 starts; Bosox showing they can score without Big Papi; Indians piling up the production at Ameriquest; Indians will want to start this homestand solid, and they're 70% winners at home to lefties this season (ASB)?Indians OPS vs lefties about 20 points higher than against righties)
min@Tor un8 60% (-111)+7 (Santana actually 2-3 career vs Jays with an era up over 4, but he's been dynamite of late, despite losing to the Tigers in his last; Marcum shut down the Yanks for 6 or 7 innings in his last and he's been stellar all season; Jays OPS vs lefties up over .800 but should have a tough time here vs Santana; this one looks worth a shot, too)
det@Cws un9.5 59% (-125)+3 (Buehrle is 11-7, 2.92 era in his career vs Tigers and he's been pretty solid most of the season; Miller is really starting to make a name for himself in Detroit, and around the league, with his great work; Tigers OPS vs lefties more than 100 points higher than Chisox OPS vs lefties, so the edge goes to the Tigers, here, but a decent game from Buehrle, which I think is likely, should keep this one under 10 runs; available at 9, too, but 9.5 is the WAY smarter play, for the under, as 9 is a very common number to be hit; might take a chance here)
Had more to say about these than the system totals.
In Houston, Samspson has not impressed lately and Billingsley does his best work out of the bullpen. 9 is a fair total for high-scoring Minute Maid Park, though the Astros OPS at home is only .753 (ASB)?was .765 at home last year so not much of a drop-off; Dodgers likely get the greater total, with their 27 outs, and 6 or 7 from them wouldn't surpise me here; Dodgers OPS the last 7 days is .853; Astros OPS last 7 days is .784.
In Arizona, Willis has been a dog, lately, and he has poor career numbers vs D'Backs. Davis has been better, lately, but Marlins OPS vs lefties is over .800 and the past 7 days has Marlins OPS at .950 due to some outbursts at home. Chase Field is another high-scoring park; D'Backs are OPS .753 at home while only .684 on the road (ASB). Two concerns is D'Backs poor work vs lefties (OPS below .700) and their OPS over the past 7 days (.591), but Willis should elevate both of those numbers.
Sure could have used 1 more run at Ameriquest. A victory by the Twins would also have been sweet; guess Garza was due for a bad one. System sides went 8-7 on the day. Maybe system totals are recovering, not missing one of the 4 yesterday, but as you can see there are some non-system totals that I like today.
Might invest more in totals than sides today, for a change; I'd be smart to hold off until I get word of the umpires, mind you?might do that. Braves, Yankees and Rangers are all system picks today, and two of them are very affordable. For the other, it's hard to doubt the Yankees offense now, after their weekend explosion; Clemens hasn't faced the Royals this season, and has pretty disgusting numbers on the road this year, but he has owned the Royals during his career (20-6, 2.15 era vs). Break-even mark on a -169 is only 63%, and I think that a call of 70% or higher?even on the road?is warranted here; Perez has been atrocious lately and he was pounded in his only career start vs the Yankees.
Lookin' to clear at least 3 units today to get out of the red for July.
Will post picks eventually.
GL
yesterday: 3-4 -2.34
July: 90-97 -2.77
ml 53-43 +2.68
rl 4-5 +2.87
totals 18-21 -6.14
parlays 15-28 -2.18
system picks 2-2 yesterday; 27-16 in July (63%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
(Mets were a system pick)
system totals 3-0-1 yesterday; 29-32 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Cin 55% (-115)+1
lad 56 (-110)+3
Col 59 (-134)+1
fla 54 (+117)+7
atl 62 (-111)+9
Clev 56 (-130)-1
min 53 (-145)-7 tor 47 (+137)+4
det 57 (+102)+7
nyy 72 (-169)+9 RL 59 (-109)+6
Tex 62 (-120)+7
Laa 58 (-132)+1
system totals
lad@Hou ov9 69% (-107)+17 --ump N/A
fla@Ariz ov10 67 (+115)+20 --ump N/A
also-ran totals
sd@Col un10 48% (-120)-7 (both clubs were shutout Sunday, Maddux is coming off a great game, and Francis, of course, is a good pitcher, despite poor career numbers vs Padres; might go against the system here)
atl@Sf un8 57% (-116)+3 (I've had Smoltz rated higher than I currently have him for only one start this season?he's looking great?he's 11-15, 4.19 era vs the Giants in his career but he should quiet the Giants bats some after their outburst at Miller Park?Giants OPS at home only .689 (ASB); Cain has not looked great lately, but I think he might calm the Braves bats as they're playing a late one at Turner before travelling out west, not to mention the fact that they didn't produce much against righty Thompson Sunday; might try this one, too)
bost@Clev ov11 62% (+106)+13 (close to a system total, but the high number keeps it out; impossible to say what Lester will have?I'm sure he'll be dying to impress the Bosox staff, but he's nothing special, so far?B grade pitcher at best; Westbrook's era is up over 6. and he's had an era of at least 4.50 for each of his past 3 starts; Bosox showing they can score without Big Papi; Indians piling up the production at Ameriquest; Indians will want to start this homestand solid, and they're 70% winners at home to lefties this season (ASB)?Indians OPS vs lefties about 20 points higher than against righties)
min@Tor un8 60% (-111)+7 (Santana actually 2-3 career vs Jays with an era up over 4, but he's been dynamite of late, despite losing to the Tigers in his last; Marcum shut down the Yanks for 6 or 7 innings in his last and he's been stellar all season; Jays OPS vs lefties up over .800 but should have a tough time here vs Santana; this one looks worth a shot, too)
det@Cws un9.5 59% (-125)+3 (Buehrle is 11-7, 2.92 era in his career vs Tigers and he's been pretty solid most of the season; Miller is really starting to make a name for himself in Detroit, and around the league, with his great work; Tigers OPS vs lefties more than 100 points higher than Chisox OPS vs lefties, so the edge goes to the Tigers, here, but a decent game from Buehrle, which I think is likely, should keep this one under 10 runs; available at 9, too, but 9.5 is the WAY smarter play, for the under, as 9 is a very common number to be hit; might take a chance here)
Had more to say about these than the system totals.
In Houston, Samspson has not impressed lately and Billingsley does his best work out of the bullpen. 9 is a fair total for high-scoring Minute Maid Park, though the Astros OPS at home is only .753 (ASB)?was .765 at home last year so not much of a drop-off; Dodgers likely get the greater total, with their 27 outs, and 6 or 7 from them wouldn't surpise me here; Dodgers OPS the last 7 days is .853; Astros OPS last 7 days is .784.
In Arizona, Willis has been a dog, lately, and he has poor career numbers vs D'Backs. Davis has been better, lately, but Marlins OPS vs lefties is over .800 and the past 7 days has Marlins OPS at .950 due to some outbursts at home. Chase Field is another high-scoring park; D'Backs are OPS .753 at home while only .684 on the road (ASB). Two concerns is D'Backs poor work vs lefties (OPS below .700) and their OPS over the past 7 days (.591), but Willis should elevate both of those numbers.
Sure could have used 1 more run at Ameriquest. A victory by the Twins would also have been sweet; guess Garza was due for a bad one. System sides went 8-7 on the day. Maybe system totals are recovering, not missing one of the 4 yesterday, but as you can see there are some non-system totals that I like today.
Might invest more in totals than sides today, for a change; I'd be smart to hold off until I get word of the umpires, mind you?might do that. Braves, Yankees and Rangers are all system picks today, and two of them are very affordable. For the other, it's hard to doubt the Yankees offense now, after their weekend explosion; Clemens hasn't faced the Royals this season, and has pretty disgusting numbers on the road this year, but he has owned the Royals during his career (20-6, 2.15 era vs). Break-even mark on a -169 is only 63%, and I think that a call of 70% or higher?even on the road?is warranted here; Perez has been atrocious lately and he was pounded in his only career start vs the Yankees.
Lookin' to clear at least 3 units today to get out of the red for July.
Will post picks eventually.
GL
