Monday June 4th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday June 4th 2007

yesterday: 7-8 -0.12
June: 23-19 -1.85
ml 11-7 -2.18
rl 1-0 +0.75
totals 11-7 +3.46
parlays 0-5 -3.88
system picks 2-1 yesterday; now 86-46 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-3 yesterday; 9-5 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

sf 55% (+106)+6
Atl 63 (-161)+1
lad 65 (-145)+5 RL 50 (+115)+3
cubs 52 (+114)+5
Tb 63 (-147)+3
nyy 52 (DeSalvo-Garland)
Seat 53 (-125)-3
Oak 60 (-152)-1
Laa 61 (-156)even

system totals

sf@Phil un9.5 70% (-110)+17 --ump Foster is even
cubs@Mil ov8.5 65 (-125)+9
bost@Oak un8.5 72 (-105)+20


Yesterday was acceptable due to the Tigers win. Still?Mets actually cost me almost 17 units (big straight and 2 parlays). Parlays are starting to hurt me, this month; going to have to be smart about them, and not try to chase. Went 4-2 on the moneyline and 3-4 on totals. Yesterday was one game away from being super-sweet?time to move on?

Today's board has a few tempting lines. Nothing appears to be worth pounding, but I'll probably take a couple of shots at what's available. Dodgers are just barely a system pick (+5 at 65%); they prefer hitting lefties and get a fairly soft one here, in Maholm; Lowe has been solid for LA.

One final positive note is that system sides have gone 23-7 the past 2 days (76.6% winners).

Be back later to post plays.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?......April??..May?.?.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total..452-335..203-165...249-170?28-17
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13??2-1
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10??4-0
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10??2-1
54??...28-24?..14-8?...14-16??3-3
55??...24-26?..9-12??.15-14??3-1
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12??0-1
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11??
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5??..2-1
59??...26-20?..11-11?..15-9??..4-0
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12??0-1
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8??..1-1
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10??1-0
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8??..1-2
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6??..1-1
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9??..2-0
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5??..1-1
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6???
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1???1-0
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2???
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1???0-1
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0???0-1
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1???
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0???
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0???
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1???
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???
77
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???0-1
79
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0
totals?..106-94?..45-53?..61-41?...9-5
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.



Only 8-6 on 60's so far in June; that has to improve (they DID go 3-0 yesterday).
0-3 on 70's is a horrible start; in all 3 games I got semi-decent starts by the starters (Peavy, Kazmir, and Perez), but in all 3 games my teams coudn't get enough off of the opposing pitcher (Chico?!?!?:com: , Bannister?!?!?!?!:mj13: , and Davis :flush: ).

Hmmm...

The 23-7 over the past 2 days has me somewhat optimistic.
I can't force the 70's...they'll come in time...my guess is that things will balance out.
Still, a repeat of May's 23-3 (88.4% winners) will be tough if I miss the next couple that come along...

...stay tuned.

(I feel a shredding of the books coming on this month; totals are starting to come more into play, especially now that we have a better sense of bullpens and, most importantly, offenses).

Need to 'cap Tuesday's action...dying to see what my next 70+ will be.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Philly

in Philly

For the past 3 seasons ('05,'06,'07), Barry Zito hasn't been his sharpest during DAY games.

'06,'07 Lieber has been worse in his day starts also.

Phillies OPS vs L .710 (they're .803 vs R).

Giants OPS only .714 vs R.

I was thinking about both the Giants and the under for this game.

Giants have pounded the ball in 2 of 3 games in this series.
Phillies have pounded the ball in 1...just yesterday.

Bonds should be back.

Lieber has been kind of cold.

Zito has been kind of hot.

The ballpark really doesn't favor the under, and the ump is no help (if Foster).

Only Hamels has been able to shut down the Giants.
Phillies pen is pretty bad.

Phillies probably scrape something off of Zito.

Tough call.

System prefers the Giants (55%).

I think that right now if you can get a good lefty going against the Phillies then it's worth a shot. I'd prefer a better line. Limited Value.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

the finale in Pittsburgh

the finale in Pittsburgh

Lowe is 4-0, 2.52 era vs Pirates in 4 starts.
3.32 era, 1.33 whip.
Coming into this one off of 2 solid performances.

Maholm is 0-1, 7.15 era vs Dodgers in 2 starts.
5.35 era, 1.42 whip (OBA .295).
Has allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of his past 5 starts.

Dodgers OPS vs L .752.
Pirates OPS vs R .686.

Edge Dodgers bullpen.

This game looks like a no-brainer.

Dodgers 65%.
This call looks solid.
I'll take the bit of value that the books are allowing, here.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

out here on the perimeter there are no stars; out here we is stoned...immaculate

out here on the perimeter there are no stars; out here we is stoned...immaculate

PLAYS

system picks

dodgers -142 2.84/2

other picks

giants +106 0.73/0.77
cubs +121 1/1.21

totals

cubs@Mil ov8.5 -125 0.75/0.6
cubs over 4 -130 1.3/1
bost@Oak un8.5 +105 0.6/0.63

2-teamer
--dodgers ml
--cubs over 4
+195
0.51/1


That's all I'm trying today. Really like this team total; I've played team totals this year, and done pretty well, but this is my first posted one?technically. Bush is the Brewers weak link, despite his good showing vs Braves in last, and I think the Cubs can get (at least) 4 no problem. Game should go over, I would think, despite the past 2 game at Miller Park going under the total (not exactly a pitcher's park, but Brewers whole staff is performing well, and the Brewers bats have gone quiet lately). If you think that Marquis chucks a good one then take the moneyline over the team total. Dodgers and Giants with varrying odds of winning for reasons I discussed earlier (see above (sew below)).

I'm about to 'cap Tuesday; this should be fun.
Results will be up by tomorrow.

GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

SORIANO!

:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Alan Embree can kiss my ass (ruined perfect day).

I'll take a 6-1

any day.

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :com:

:weed:

:SIB

Tuesday's numbers will be up within 13 minutes.

See you then.

:SIB