Monday Madness - stats and plays

[Randercity]

After three straight winning days, the last two on TIGER's board, I hope to continue this miny streak for a bit longer...

L.A. at ATLANTA

I've touted all along concerning playing ATL at home vs RH starters where ATL stands at -2230 based on $100/unit. Well, that's NOT the case when MADDUX pitches as ATL is 12-3 in those games. LA has major BP problems, and ADAMS will be lucky to go six. Compound that with the emergence of SMOLTZ as a closer for ATL, and I can see the BRAVES a number on LA, as their BP is doing a great job of late. I hate, and I mean HATE laying 220 on anyone, but I can't see L.A. winning this one. Moving A. JONES to the 2 hole seemed to inspire him as he hit two dingers yesterday, and the BRAVES seem to rally around their stud MADDUX and give him plenty of support. I can see L.A. getting 2-3 here, but look for an ATLANTA win, say, 6-3.

ATLANTA -220 and OVER 7.5 EVEN

** the OVER is somewhat of a hedge, as the ONLY way I see LA winning is by hitting MADDUX hard and outscoring them. M. HIRSCHBECK is behind HP, and normally I don't go OVER vs either HIRSCHBECK. BUT, a look at the numbers show that he rarely has games at 7.5 or 8, and when he has, it's gone OVER. His O/U was stellar til he had a string of 6 straight OVERS, followed by the last five UNDER. HOWEVER, 3 of those UNDERS all had NINE runs scored... food for thought!
MADDUX is also 9-3 OVER at home...

 

[Randercity]

not going to edit it, but the OVER is actually -120, my typo on the ATL game.

S.F. at NY METS

JENSEN's MBA scares me... even without the 3 regulars, I see this game going OVER today.

OVER 8.5 EVEN

 

[JT Sneaks]

Randy, bit suprised to see you on the over in shea, with the under ump behind the plate, I am passing but wish you the best of luck.

JT

Sneaks

 

[Randercity]

JT... you're right, I looked at that, but still felt that SF would hit APPIER fairly hard and that METS would get at least 3 or more off the KID JENSEN due to his high MBA. Sitting at 3-3 right now, and after the BRAVES blew it against LA, I could use the break... sheesh.

IF I EVER POST ANOTHER PLAY ON LA or AGAINST LA, someone please tell me reconsider... I think this makes six or seven straight losses involving this team, I cannot read them at all. IF I have em, the BP blows it, or the UNDER. IF I go against em, they play like WORLD CHAMPS and their pen is stellar. I can't get a break with them... I was dumb for going AGAINST my OWN NEW DOG system, especially laying 220, so I have no one to blame. I'm sure if MADDUX stays in, it's a 2-1 win for ATL as SMOLTZ would've pitched the ninth, but we'll never know thanks to that grounder off MADDUX's leg...

Wonderful 0-2 start on the day... down almost 3 units, and looking at more if the bats don't get going in NY!

Got bases loaded for SF... can you say GRAND SLAM????

 

[tedy]

ATLANTA LOW ODDS AND THEY BLOW IT...
ATLANTA AND LA NO MORE ...DON'T WANT EVEN HEAR THEM!

 

[Randercity]

NOPE!!!! Sac fly... oh well. One METS run and I'm a lock to go OVER. Time to get working on finishing up the NITE GAMES.

 

[WORM]

Shinjo power!!!!! Winner

 

[Randercity]

Arizona at PHILA

When did the ALIENS land in ARIZONA and take over ALBIE's body???

I can't figure this guy out... he was terrible in TBAY, and I laughed at DBACKS when they traded for him. He lands in UFO HAVEN, and suddenly he's BOB GIBSON or something!

In his last 3 starts, he's 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and MBA of 6.26, WHIP of .70 in 23 innings! UNREAL! He's outpitching BOTH SCHILLING and JOHNSON over that stretch, but let us NOT forget, this guy is still 8-15 on the year for his teams counting his days in TBAY. GRANTED, TBAY is terrible, and I'm sure that led to some of his troubles, but I keep waiting for this guy to crack... or the MOTHERSHIP to return and restore ALBIE back to normal.

PERSON is a tough young pitcher who the PHILLIES have been supporting quite well. He's 9-2 at home despite a 4.41 ERA and PHILA is 11-2 at home when he starts. The OVER is also 8-5 when he starts at home.

AZ is 7-3 in their last ten, PHILA is 2-8. UNDER is 6-3-1 in last 10 games, UNDER is 4-1 in PHILA's last five games, and the UNDER is 15-6-1 in AZ's last 22 on the road. HP UMP HOLLOWELL however is 10-7 O/U and is 5-2 OVER when the line is at 8.5 or 9. Gonna wait before making my play on this one to check the lineups, but am leaning to PHILA and UNDER in this game...

 

[WORM]

Hey Rander got some info for you on the d-backs only tonight. I am listening to the radio all day and sounds like Brenly is going with womack and short tonight and counsell will play second agaist person. So it looks like it will be
Womack
Counsell
Gonzo
Grace
Williams
Finley
Dellucci
Miller
Lopez

Now I heard you trying to figure out what is going on with lopez. Here are my thoughts on what is happening. When they got him from the devil rays he was slumping, but you have to take in that he was hit on the thumb in early june and pitched with that bothering him for two months. Plus he had pulled his groin in late june. The thumb injury was big cause that hurt his ability to throw his change-up which is a big pitch for him. He is throwing more changeups in his last four starts and keeping batters of balance. His first start in AZ he was so nervous that his fastball that is usually 93-95 was only maxing out at 89. And when your not throwing changeups and curveball your going to get smacked around. He is healthy right now and feeling good. Bob Welch has helped him alot as the pitching coach and Miller as the catcher he is 3-1 with 31 IP and 3 ER givin up for a .87 ERA. His one loss was to the expos 1-0 against Vasquez. With Difielce behind the plate he was 0-2 with a 7.52 era. Obviously Miller knows what to throw being in the National league the last five years.

Now none of this if for you to bet on the d-backs tonight cause i do think Philly will win this game tonight. But I wanted to give you some info on the line-up tonight and the status of Albie. Being a local and a d-back fan think I know a little about the team. Plus I grew up playing High school ball and college ball against Albie. Know him pretty well.

Just my two cents!!!!!11

 

[Randercity]

So he's NOT AN ALIEN and hasn't been abducted???

Ok... that helps, and is great info to know. Earlier this year, he was an automatic play against for me, and normally the OVER. But I did see him pitch in one of his games recently, and you're right, he's got a great change. Still not sure how I'm playing the game... but that helps!!! Thanks!

 

[Randercity]

San Diego at FLORIDA

BURNETT threw the INCREDIBLE 9 WALK no hitter at S.D. earlier this year, and shut them down to 4 hits and 2 ER last August in his only two starts vs them. Tollberg is a young MADDUX type that keeps the ball close to the plate which should work well with an UNDER UMP behind the plate in WENDELSTEDT. He's 11-17 O/U overall and 1-5 O/U when the line is 8.5 or 9. Given AJ's success vs S.D. and TOLLBERG's good outings, I'll pass on the side with FLOYD and CASTILLO sitting and simply go UNDER.

UNDER 8.5

Gonna take these also:

PHIL -110 and UNDER 8.5 EVEN

Can't pass on a pickem at home with a guy who's 9-2 there.

 

[Randercity]

Pitt at MILW

More of a play AGAINST PITT and BIEMEL than anything... MILW showed alot of heart vs CUBS last week, and I liked what I saw... never have liked BIEMEL or the PIRATES! Well, except as a big dog when they win for me!!

Gonna take the HOME BREW CREW to make the PIRATES BOO HOO!

MILW -120 at SIA

 

[Randercity]

4-3 -.50 Units

Not bad after starting out 0-2 and down 3.40 Units on the DODGER game... man, what a bozo, if I follow the NEW DOGS, I win on the day. On to today's card on another thread.