Monday May 28th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday May 28th 2007

yesterday: 10-10 +0.06 (no chit?happy birthday?grrr?Jays and Giants)
May: 159-128 +28.75
ml 90-54 +17.16
rl 8-11 -2.79
totals 43-35 +6.66 (should I read something into this or what?)
parlays 18-28 +7.72
system picks a solid 4-1 yesterday, hitting a dog in the D'Rays but missing the top %'er (69%...Giants?69's fall to 3-2 for May)
system picks now 70-41 overall; 40-21 for May (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

pitt 52% (-110)-1
Mil 62 (-131)+5
Cubs 55 (-149)-5
Col 71 (-145)+11 RL 58 (+148)+17
Phil 51 (-150)-9 ariz 49 (+143)+7
Min 72 (-185)+7 RL 57 (+127)+12
Bost 68 (-152)+7 RL 53 (+127)+8
nyy 63 (-135)+5
det 67 (-150?)+7 (currently offline everywhere I can see?Durbin-Jackson)
balt 52 (-118)-3
Laa 66 (-150)+6 RL 50 (+145)+9
Oak 53 (-142)-6 tex 47 (+135)+4

system totals

cws@Min un7.5 65% (-120)+10
clev@Bost ov10 65 (-125)+9
tex@Oak un8.5 72 (-105)+20


Jays or Giants, yesterday, and I would have been satisfied. Turned a plus on the moneyline, as I went 7-3 there. Even turned a small plus on totals, going 3-2. Freaking parlays is what hurt?threw away almost 2.5u on 4 losers. System picks going 4-1 makes the losses hurt a little less; that's where I'll make my money. Freakin' Giants! Flippin' Jays!

Several more system picks on today's board. I see 4 just of the ones I can currently play (the Jackson fade, in Tampa, should be gorgeous?if you can get it?anything to -150 sounds worthwhile). Rockies I'll be on for sure, as Francis has been throwing great lately, and he's done good work vs Cards in the past (3-1, 2.27 in 5); Wells has been beat up by the Rockies (and everyone else this year) before, including in his only visit to Coors (a 2004 start, mind you; result was an 11.25 era for his 4 IP). Twins number is large as Chisox just aren't hitting lefties, at all (OPS .595!). Santana has good career numbers vs Chisox; Contreras, mind you, has been stellar at the Metrodome (2-0, 0.53 era in 2 starts and 1 in relief). Pitching still favours Twinkies, and the penalty I've been giving to the Twins sticks, with Mauer out, still doesn't give the Chisox any edge there, not with the way they're (not) hitting lefties. It's pricey but I like it. Next up is the Bosox who should get to Lee, who was rocked in his last; Schilling will look to improve to 2-2 career vs Indians; over is a system call, as well. I'm probably on a small piece at the current price. Finally there's the Angels to beat the suddenly potent Mariners; Colon has beaten the M's twice already this season, while Batista lost to the Angels in his only appearance; I like the M's bats vs lefties (OPS .795) better than vs righties (OPS .742). Colon probably doesn't have to be stellar, here, as Angels have been lighting things up at home (OPS .785?actually down from April's end of .821) and hsve hit Batista before (baa .323 in 29.1 IP vs).

Like I say?grab the Tigers if you can get 'em reasonable.

Brewers, D'Backs, and Yankees I might consider. I'm thinking that the Yankees might take out their frustrations on McGowan here (he sucks), and the Jays bats are posting a measley .734 OPS at home this season (.861 last year) and a whopping .728 OPS vs righties (was .804 last year). Lately they're pretty pathetic at the plate, too, as yesterday's performance illustrates. Freakin' Jays! Fade time.

Thanks a lot for those who wished me Happy Birthday yesterday.
It was greatly appreciated.
I don't get to much action in my threads so I was thrilled to see the support.
Wish it was my birthday everyday.

Be back later to post picks.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Rats...I don't even know why I'm posting these runine numbers; I'm doing much better on the moneyline, and I generally prefer the least risk available.

Still...some value in today's:

Rockies 71% (now -150)+11

ROI
-------
ML 71%
71 x 0.666 = 47.33
29 x -1......=..-29
------------------------------
..................18.33% ROI...pretty hot for a moneyline

RL 58%
58 x 1.4 = 81.2
42 x -1...=..-42
-------------------------
...............39.2% ROI

I'm getting double with the runline, here.
Rockies don't win many 1-run games, especially at Coors.

Double the ROI and

13/29%

= 44.8% greater risk with the runline
(29% loss ml, 42% loss rl)

Maybe I should splice my bets up, as I know the Rockies are going to command more than a unit from me, anyways.

2/3 risk on the moneyline and
1/3 risk on the runline
might be smart.

Would be nice to get my runlines into the plus, but it would be nicer just to have a plus for the day.

:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB


Well...I can still get the Rockies at -145.
Same value indicator as -150, a +11.
(either has a 60% break-even point).

I think I might forego the extra value on the runline and play it safe.

I'd be curious to hear how others are attacking this game.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

recommended team totals

recommended team totals

Some I'm considering, with relative system numbers:

Cubs over 5? (+9) Cubs over whatever you can get

cards under 4.5 -130 (-10) Cards not hitting lefties (OPS .668)

white sox under 3.5 -135 (-22) chisox CAN'T hit lefties

Bosox over 5.5 +110 (+13) Bosox a stellar .847 vs lefties; that number goes up at home

yankees over 5.5 -115 (+11) 27 outs here vs a weak starter and faltering bullpen; Yankees OPS vs righties at .801, and won't be hurt by playing in this hitter's park

tigers over 5?...6?... (+17) it doesn't get much worse than Jackson, and the D'Rays bullpen sucks, too


I've been doing fairly well on team totals, but haven't been posting them as picks (under vs whoever Peavy faces is highly recommended).

Maybe I could just count them under totals.

Maybe I'll just post them in this format.

:shrug:

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

the Brewers could really use a win, but Capuano has gone into the tank his past 3 starts.

Tough to play him right now.
Vs a good team.
At this price.

Braves could really use a win, too.

Braves .757 OPS vs lefties.
Brewers .757 OPS vs lefties.

Not much to choose from, there.

Think I'll spectate and see if the system call of 62% holds up.

Sounds kinda high, on a second look.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Doug Davis has had 1 good 6-inning outting vs Philly already this year.
Thing is, Philly seems HOT, right now.
And having Ryan Howard back in the mix doesn't hurt...whether he's producing or not.

Was thinking about the +143, even though it's a system dog (49%), but I think I'll save my money, here.

Garcia is a decent pitcher, anyway.

System call is so low as the D'Backs have the edge at starter and bullpen.

Philly (.730 OPS vs L) prefers righties, too (.805 vs R).

Tough call, this one.
Both clubs playing good ball.

Spectator.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Oakland

in Oakland

Tejeda 2-0, 1.45 era vs A's, so I boosted his number up a bit for this game.

Rangers the edge at the plate, too,
(Rangers OPS vs R .749)
(A's OPS vs R .703)
so that's why such a low call (53%).

I still have Gaudin's pitching rating tempered by the fact that I don't believe in him; I think he's due for a stinker sometime soon. Still, he was great in his last, AT the recently rejuvenated Chisox. I currently have him rated at an 82, the highest he's seen this season. (Compare that to Haren's current 87, or even more sparkling, Peavy's current MLB high of 93!...that's for his next start...if only the Padres could hit!).

System call is an under the 8.5, but, like I said, I'm thinking Gaudin takes his lumps sometime soon...could be against the recently dormant Rangers.

Tejeda is no stud to play under, anyway.

Spectator.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system sides

Rockies -145 5.8/4
Twins -185 6.47/3.5
Bosox -152 3.04/2
Angels -150 3/2

other sides

yankees -135 2.7/2

totals

cws@Min un7.5 -116 1.16/1


That's a pretty heavy day for me. Not in quantity, but in quality, I guess.
Hoping system picks keep rocking?3-1 is hoped for from these homers.

Also have the Sens in the series, and for a piece in game #1 tonight. +128 is awesome.

Today, I'll take a plus any way I can get it.

GL

:SIB

 

[RAYMOND]

:00hour :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Rock n' Roll!

Woke up to find myself at 2-1 so far, up more than 6 units.

Think I'll add this Jackson fade...

tigers -144 2.88/2

Tigers loss here would stun me.
I'd go more, but Tigers a bit cold...hopefully a wake up call, here.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Figures...I call my own starter a bum (McGowan...well...said he "sucks"...)...

and the guys throwing a gem against the Yankees.

Why am I playing these flippin' losers?

:shrug:

Need the Tigers to hang on.:scared

:weed:

:SIB

 

[bjfinste]

The Yankee bats are just perplexing. There is no excuse for being this poor game after game. And that's not exactly Santana or Oswalt out there for Toronto.