Monday May 7th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday May 7th 2007

yesterday: 5-1 +2.74
May: 36-25 +11.34
ml 19-6 +10.47
rl 4-3 +0.54
totals 8-10 -2.19
parlays 5-6 +2.52
system sides 2-0 Sunday, now 44-25 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system sides 11-4 overall yesterday, now 55-29 for May (65.5% winners)
system totals 2-1 yesterday, now 11-6 for May

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

lad 57% (-120)+2
sd 54 (+115)+7
hou 58 (-133)even
Mil 78 (-235)+7 RL 65 (-110)+12
Stl 52 (-121)-3
Ariz 53 (-104)+2
mets 55 (-104)+4
clev 55 (-121)even
Nyy 63 (-160)+1

system totals

wash@Mil ov8.5 60% (-115)+6 ?not much value on this one
m's@Nyy un11.5 65 (-130)+8 --due to such a high total?tough one

Just the one 60, with the Yankees; DeSalvo might benefit from some Yankee production, here, while Batista might throw one of his rare good games?no cinch, here.
Lookin' better in Milwaukee, where the Brewers have come up with my highest number of 2007 (78%!). Too pricey; runline looks good, as Brewers have been winning by more than 1 run lately (decent bullpen, with a grade of 74 compared to last year's 66 for them?see my post on Bullpen Report Cards for my assessments in this regard?and solid bats this year; OPS .801 vs lefties (thru April) and a whopping .853 at home; Nats come in with an OPS of .647 overall).

I kind of like the Dodgers, Padres and Astros, but system numbers indicate that all 3 games could be fairly close. Marlins bats can hit, James has been better, lately, for the hot Braves, and Lohse may perform at home, not to mention the suddenly hot Reds bats.

I'm going to check out a few more things (vs opponent's etc.).
Be back to post picks if there are any.

:SIB

 

[RAYMOND]

gl today

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Cincinnati

at Cincinnati

Thanks, Ray

Wow...Oswalt is career 18-1 vs Reds w/2.46 era.
And, he just threw 8 beauty innings vs them in his last (4 hits, 1 er, 1 BB, 2 K).
His 2 road starts have been his worst of the season, with a 1-1 record and 7.50 era!
(won 9-6 at Philly then lost 4-3 at Milwaukee)

Lohse a career 1-3 vs Astros w/4.05 era (but no homers vs in his 20 IP).
Lohse has dropped his past 2, surrenduring 19 hits for his 12 IP.
(@Cards then @Astros, the latter he lost 3-1 - vs Oswalt)
Solid numbers at home, in 2 starts (vs Cubs & Phillies), with no record but a 1.35 era for his 13.1 IP.
Reds won both games.

Astros bats are totally inconsistent, but I'm hoping they give Oswalt something to work with, here.

Hard to pass this one up.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

good game to pass on...

good game to pass on...

Mets' Perez is 0-3 in 6 starts vs Giants, with a 6.60 era (30 hits, 6 HR, 22 BB, 18 K in 30 IP).
His K/BB ratio is great this year (3.6).
He's 1-1 w/3.21 era in 2 road starts (with a whip of 0.93 for his 14 innings (no walks, 15 K, 2 homers surrendured).
These are the only 2 homers he allowed in '07.
He's struck out 28 in his past 19.1 IP (only 3 BB).

Zito has never faced the Mets before.
In 4 home starts, he's 1-2 with a 4.26 era.
His one bad outting, vs the Dodgers, came at home.
Only 1 homer surrendured in 38.1 IP so far.

Mets OPS .913 vs lefties (leads MLB).
Giants OPS .773 vs lefties, dropping this month from April's .822 vs lefties (quite a drop...can't remember what lefties they've faced in May).

Edge to Mets sticks.
Small edge to Giants starter.
Edge to Mets bullpen.

Line for either side is attractive, but this one is tough to call.
Under is tempting, but quite risky the way these clubs handle lefties.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in 'zona

in 'zona

Doug Davis' last 3 starts have gone under.
He's 4-2 unders in '07.
His last 2 have been his best, allowing 1 er over 14 IP vs Giants and Dodgers.
He has an era of 3.50 at home, record of 2-0.
He's 1-1 in 4 starts vs Philly, era of 3.46.

Garcia hasn't rounded into form, yet, as his 6.05 era will attest.
He has stuck out 19, through 19.1 IP.
He was solid in his only game vs D'Backs (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K).

I'm thinking this one could play under, as Davis has been great lately, and Garcia faces a fairly weak offense in 'Zona.
Phillies OPS of .802 vs lefties my main concern.

Wish I knew the ump, here (Eddings is probably going someplace, as it's his turn, and he's a great under-ump).

Side is a tough call...
Big Edge Phillies sticks.
Medium Edge D'Backs starter.
Edge to D'Backs pen, as Phillies' pen is bad, so far in '07.

Phils poor pen is another reason to avoid the under, as Garcia probably only makes it 7, maybe (5 innings is his longest, through 4 starts).

Still...I've got a +100 staring me in the face.
D'Backs only score when I bet against 'em.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

tempting team totals

tempting team totals

dodgers ov4.5 -110
--Nolasco allowed 20 HR in 140 IP last year
--he's already allowed 2 in 6.1 IP in '07

padres ov4.5 +120
--do their best work vs lefties
--James will never be an ace
--Turner field surrenduring runs this year

indians ov4.5 -145
--indians .785 OPS vs righties
--Trachsel a 6.32 era vs indians in 6 starts
(mind you, Trachsel was decent vs indians on April 27th, in Cleveland --5.2 IP, 5 hits, 2 runs -- and he's looked good in 2 home starts (vs Royals and Jays), with a 1.46 era in 12.1 IP, so far)

Padres are the most tempting, at +120, but if they score 5 or more then they probably win, making the +115 moneyline a better play.

:SIB

 

[brooklynkid]

GL today Ex, I really like that Houston game...how many time are you going to get Oswalt at -130 /-140 range. I don't care if it's on the road

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

another chicken dinner

another chicken dinner

thanks brooklynkid,

Let's do this Astros thing...

PLAYS

system sides

Brewers -1.5 -110 1.65/1.5

other sides

dodgers -120 1.2/1
padres +115 0.7/0.8
astros -133 2/1.5
Nyy -1.5 +120 0.5/0.6

totals

phil@Ariz un9 +100 0.5/0.5
mets@Sf un8.5 +105 0.5/0.52


That's enough for today's quiet board.
I'd like to 'tail some posters, on the Clev-Balt over, but I just can't do it?not at the -125 being offered to me. Carmona is garbage, in my opinion, but has surprised me, lately. Trachsel has been solid at home. O's bats are doing poorly, to boot.
Oh, well?good luck to those who are on it.
I've got my own poison to swallow, today.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

look at Tuesday

look at Tuesday

I've done Tuesday's games.

Best best in the N.L. looks like the Brewers, again
(Bush-Simontacchi) at 66%
I see an early line of -210
uggh
that's a -2 value indicator
No play from me
(I don't really like Bush, anyway)

Best in the A.L. is Tigers
(Bonderman-Ramirez) at 71%
an ugly early line of -185
gives a +6 value indicator--a system play at 71%

I think I'll wait for a better line.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

UNDER-time on Wednesday

UNDER-time on Wednesday

Wow...I like a lot of games under for Wednesday:

Maine vs Morris
Moyer vs Johnson
Maddux vs Smoltz (at Turner...this one should be fun)
Gorzelanny vs Marquis
and
maybe the best
Haren vs Meche --too bad not in Oakland, but should be low just the same

Tuesday looks quiet, for me,
so I'm gettin' ready to bust some moves on Wednesday

Milwaukee 74% (Vargas-Bergmann)
mets 66% (Maine-Morris)--could catch a nice road line, here
Tigers 66% (Robertson-Baek)

May not catch the best lines for those, but Angels at home (64% Weaver vs Byrd) for better than -140 and I'm hoppy.
Angels smokin' at home. Byrd is Byrd.

Them's the word.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

added

added

2-teamer
--Brewers ml
--Nyy ml
+130
0.76/1

2-teamer
--dodgers ml
--astros ml
+210
0.5/1.05

Hoping that one will, at least, cover the other.
Maybe get lucky tonight.

Go 'stros

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

YESS!!!

Cordero with an incredible save,
1st and 2nd and nobody out...
preserves the runline WINNER!!!

:00hour

:weed:

:SIB